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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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I bust your stones when you say  nutty things, so let me give credit where credit is due as well....Congratulations Kevin on holding your ground on this one!  Nice Call :-).  

 

Hope I can get in on some accumulation too.??  

 

Nice job!

he has scored more than a few coups...he nailed a system that was a grazer back in dec of 12 i think and he said it would come closer and be six plus for most folks and it sure did...i agree credit has to be given where it's due..great job Kevin and Forky!

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he has scored more than a few coups...he nailed a system that was a grazer back in dec of 12 i think and he said it would come closer and be six plus for most folks and it sure did...i agree credit has to be given where it's due..great job Kevin and Forky!

 

 

Kevin never saw a snow threat he didn't like....except the Blizzard of 2013.

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I tend to think that this has a tighter gradient than forecast.

 

Any thoughts on p-type issues for UUU?  This reads to me as one of those situations where there's an extra couple inches of snow on the north side of aquidneck island, compared to the south.

 

Might start as -RA or RASN down there. Even where I am, might be a mix to start. I do think any mix isn't lasting long.

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Kevin never saw a snow threat he didn't like....except the Blizzard of 2013.

Not true. When I don't like looks of them I say it. This one looked very good from several days out if you looked at the Central Atlantic ridging and how the front was stalking hence keeping baroclinic zone close. I'm not overly thrilled with the look next week. Has potential, but there's ways we can get screwed
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I think it starts wet, but good CAA just off the deck will drop many to 27-31 I think. So it will turn into a drier snow perhaps, but still sticky. But SE of GHG-TAN....this could be a real pasty snow.

 

I mean it's marginal near the surface, but temps aloft are chilly. Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about paste around the 95 corridor.

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You think we have any precip issues?

 

No getting by the fact that this will start as rain.  We should be able to scour out any low level warmth though as the cold is arriving as the precip moves in.  I'd say a few hours of rain to start than we thump come tomorrow AM.  High confidence in 6"+ for this area right now.

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I mean it's marginal near the surface, but temps aloft are chilly. Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about paste around the 95 corridor.

 

 

I wonder if models are biasing 2m a little warm here...950 gets reasonably cold...so it could be more like 29-30F across a lot of the area rather than 32...though down near PYM and SE RI I think it could be glop for a while at 33F.

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Climo dictates ... it is very hard to bring a v-max along the NAM's trajectory for this thing (looking back some 4 cycles or more...) without consequence in CT-RI-E MA and SE NH... 

 

That's the critical 1.5 deg lat/lon axis for frontogenetic banding - code for someone over-producing.  The jet max riding on the NW side of the llv baroclinic axis means you're likely to generate a goodly stripe or two of -EPV...with a pretty smart vertically oriented UVM core(s).  ANA phenomenon is really that playing out whether there is a closed circulation or not associated with said llv baro

 

I also don't believe this is a pure ANA scenario, as there are clear cyclogenetic events going on with this thing. 

 

I'm also a bit leery of outright discounting the NAM along the popular vote to do so with that particular model.  As I was discussing with ...someone on this board last evening, the NAM tends to do good when there is llv thickness packing/thermal gradients that are high.  It may be coincidence that whatever convective parameterization the NAM uses ...happens to perform well in those scenarios, but whenever there is a strong difluence moving over top that kind of thickness gradient, the NAM's tiltng the elevated frontal slopes more vertical...maximizing lift, together with convective processes adds to elevated instability... all of which feeds back dynamically and the storm mechanically resolves NW guidance consensus.  

 

That's ...about precisely what happened in Dec 2005 ...though this is no analog per se, the baser idea of strong DPVA and difluence running up on the NW (cold side) of nascent polar frontal displacement hearkens to potential. 

 

We'll see how it plays out, but I wouldn't be shocked if warning level event stripes SE NE...    IF IF IF, the NAM is correct with that vorticity max both timing and placement throughout. 

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