TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 What do you base that statement off of? not saying i disagree by any means, just for learning purposes. It's a really progressive and small low. Since we are now 24hrs closer to the storm any major jumps west are unlikely. With the nature of this system I'd argue it's possibly more likely it shifts east or southeast more than anything else. In other words... We have entered a spectrum and range that can consist of a lot of model "noise". The general idea is in place but there will be small fluctuations and even weenie hallucinations run to run. In all reality it is just "noise". Once you get into about RGEM range that is usually the time it's close to narrowing the goal posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It's a really progressive and small low. Since we are now 24hrs closer to the storm any major jumps west are unlikely. With the nature of this system I'd argue it's possibly more likely it shifts east or southeast more than anything else. In other words... We have entered a spectrum and range that can consist of a lot of model "noise". The general idea is in place but there will be small fluctuations and even weenie hallucinations run to run. In all reality it is just "noise". Once you get into about RGEM range that is usually the time it's close to narrowing the goal posts. cool thanks for the response man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I would wait until tomorrow as far as "dead wrong" goes. There is still lots of wiggle room for shutout W of Plymouth. I think SE of BOS PVD is pretty well locked in. Like beneath 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 cool thanks for the response man. Think of meteorology as a 100yd football field. Consider yourself on the final drive of the game. Locking in a solution a week out is akin to attempting a 90 yard field goal. Once you get to around 72hr you are feeling confident but slightly iffy still. Once you get to 48hr major shifts are tough to come by. Once you are at hr 24 you have a solid idea on the general evolution of the storm. Inside of 24hrs you can start using the RGEM and other meso models with more solid confidence. That gives you a good idea how things are going to trend and you can start ironing out the final details. I would say 48hr is usually a pretty confident mark. This is why Scott but his met degree on this line last night. It looks like Kev might be red tagged. The longer you wait to kick your forecast into the air, better chance it has of hitting its target. Effectively could be called enlarging the goalposts for the forecaster. Narrowing the goal posts is a term that is used to describe models beginning toward consolidating toward a general solution; a compromise of what is likely going to happen. However, these numbers all depend on the modeled storm. This one is definitely not traditional. It's not textbook. It's barely infact a storm. The scale upon which your confidence is based moves according to what storm is coming. One type of storm might give you more confidence in it's modeled solution at 72hr than another would at 48hr. I'm not sure if that makes complete sense or not. Basically every event confidence levels differ according to what type of storm we are tracking. Often these storms are modeled to hit good then start to look more and more meh as they approach and shift SE. However, we are now so close to the storm that places SE of BOS/PVD should feel pretty good. It's up in the air for BOS PVD and slightly north and west. It wouldn't take a large shift to give BOS a pretty unimpressive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 However, these numbers all depend on the modeled storm. This one is definitely not traditional. It's not textbook. It's barely infact a storm. The scale upon which your confidence is based moves according to what storm is coming. One type of storm might give you more confidence in it's modeled solution at 72hr than another would at 48hr. I'm not sure if that makes complete sense or not. Basically every event confidence levels differ according to what type of storm we are tracking. Yeah makes total sense. I have a pretty good feel on when to be confident on a storm. Consensus and such. Wohoo! 100 posts! Only 99,900 post to go. Im comming for you scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah makes total sense. I have a pretty good feel on when to be confident on a storm. Consensus and such. Wohoo! 100 posts! Only 18,027 to catch me. I need a life. Euro will be telling. If it is NW of the past run you probably will have expanded WSW's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Only 18,027 to catch me. I need a life. Euro will be telling. If it is NW of the past run you probably will have expanded WSW's. oh but weather is life... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Euro actually looks NW through 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Euro actually looks NW through 30. I'm always 2 frames behind you guys unfortunately on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That's probably warning snow for PVD-BOS and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That's probably warning snow for PVD-BOS and SE. Yeah, I'm out to 30. Looks NW I agree. Looks like this will be an event after-all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah, I'm out to 30. Looks NW I agree. Looks like this will be an event after-all. Change my chances at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 0.75" qpf for BOS to just NW PVD to GON...1"+ for GHG-UUU line....some of that in SE MA is lost to rain, but not a ton. They'd get pasted. 0.5" out to about ORH down to about Old Lyme CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wow just because the Euro says yes it means it is a loss or a go, wow you guys rely on the models too much, you see the possibilities and they are there, I like the current WSWs in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Will what is CHH like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Will what is CHH like? About 1.5" of qpf...but a lot of that is rain. They'd still probably get 6-8 of total paste though at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like 3-5" BOS Maybe 4-8" in the sweet spot SE MA down to maybe the canal. 2-4" just north and west of BOS/PVD 1-3" New Haven Hartford Springfield on SE. These amounts are taking some of the warm air into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 About 1.5" of qpf...but a lot of that is rain. They'd still probably get 6-8 of total paste though at the end. Wow that is in agreement with the latest NAM and GFS for CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I would go with 6-12" from Western Plymouth to the Canal points eastward to HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Really is going to be critical what is lost to rain..... Right now I'd say an area from Taunton Bridgewater down to just NW of the canal has the best shot at 6+ Friday morning commute looks messy at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 There is probably where you'll get your jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 There is probably where you'll get your jackpot. Whoever stays coldest in that area will obviously get a good head start. I'm always a bit too west for these and a bit to east when we get storms with taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I made a quick map. Put zero effort into the quality of the images' aesthetics. I feel confident in the 4-8" zone. I could see the T-1" areas becoming virga. I could see the 2-4" becoming 1-3". I could see 3-5" becoming 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Crushed on the front end of the Euro 7-8 here then 6-7 offshore storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Srefs wow its coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Half inch line runs all the way back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 As usual the NAM is juiced... This is the 6z 4K... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Whoever stays coldest in that area will obviously get a good head start. I'm always a bit too west for these and a bit to east when we get storms with taint. I made a quick map. Put zero effort into the quality of the images' aesthetics. I feel confident in the 4-8" zone. I could see the T-1" areas becoming virga. I could see the 2-4" becoming 1-3". I could see 3-5" becoming 2-4" I'm right inside the jackpot zones on both maps. Feeling confident of 4" + here. Not bad at all.Edit to add: just noticed I'm under a WSW here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Good morning Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.