SouthCoastMA Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 SREFs pretty steady, maybe a hair increased. Yah, the .5 line nudged up near you, while the 1" line hugs EWB to the canal. very slight improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I thought they looked better overall. 0.5" line is from basically BOS to west of PVD and down to central LI. 21z vs 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Do the SREFS crush? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Do the SREFS crush? I don't toss them. Do I believe them? That's a whole 'nother discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I don't toss them. Do I believe them? That's a whole 'nother discussion. I think confidence is increasing for a half foot of wet snow on the canal. Start moving away from there in either direction and confidence decreases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I don't toss them. Do I believe them? That's a whole 'nother discussion. They shifted west with precip here but i don't expect much of anything really, Your area and the cape though, May be in the game to an extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 They shifted west with precip here but i don't expect much of anything really, Your area and the cape though, May be in the game to an extent 24h precious close to 0.75" here on those. Obviously we may some some initial low level warmth to overcome but I think that's a solid advisory level here possibly low level warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Of course the Cape and Martha's Vineyard is game for 3-6", no doubt in that, 850mb temps crash through before the precip gets here. Plus 925mb temps are right around 0C, so snow is definitely the game for Cape and Martha's Vineyard, just maybe not for Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 24h precious close to 0.75" here on those. Obviously we may some some initial low level warmth to overcome but I think that's a solid advisory level here possibly low level warning. You can overcome that with +rates, The cold air is moving in on the backside as the slp moves along the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Of course the Cape and Martha's Vineyard is game for 3-6", no doubt in that, 850mb temps crash through before the precip gets here. Plus 925mb temps are right around 0C, so snow is definitely the game for Cape and Martha's Vineyard, just maybe not for Nantucket. Why not ACK? Too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 00z NAM way north with precip through 00z Friday vs 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yes ACK is too far southeast for the front to reach them before the cold air and precip make it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NAM should come a bit NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Models have actually trended towards an actual low pressure center developing along the front, instead of just an enhanced area of precip or frontal wave. This is the difference between an event vs a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 00z NAM way north with precip through 00z Friday vs 18z run. North? Wasn't the question west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NAM should come a bit NW. Yup, trough is just a bit sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This is a singular shortwave that has remained very sharp on guidance. 00z NAM is much further northwest with the precip shield at hour 24-27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NAM is caving -- might not make it all the way this run, but huge jump northwest compared to 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Nam sure seems to have caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NAM is caving -- might not make it all the way this run, but huge jump northwest compared to 18z run. Looks pretty good for SE MA and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 nam shifted NW by maybe 25-30 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks pretty good for SE MA and the Cape. maybe we get 1-3" on this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Moderate snow(.5" per hour) up to just NW of BOS-PVD corridor at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 North? Wasn't the question west? There is only so far west that the precip will make it in this setup. It's been discussed in depth by the METs in here already. I see very little falling north/west of say the BOS/PVD corridor. Maybe an inch or so along that line. Maybe I'm wrong as 00z guidance rolls in but I'm not overly optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Euro ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Pretty big shift from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ukie and kev also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Snowmap through hour 36 and the 1 hour snowfall from 6-7 AM Friday. image posting Ukie and kev also Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Verbatim it's a good dose of rain to start in SE MA and CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NAM would approach 2.0" of QPF over CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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