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The AnaFront/Coastal Storm Disco 02/05/16


Damage In Tolland

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Not spiking anything. Just don't think nam is correct and that we see another bump NW on good models this afternoon and night

 

 

Stop using the Nam

2-4 for YBY looks good

 

 

I'm not worried about nor expecting any shifts east. In fact, I'd bet on another shift west happens st 18z and 00z with that stout ridging.

A met this morning said its late in game to be using Ensembles

 

 

Scooter kissed his OTS storm all the way to a WSW for his area. Classic

 

 

Youre a stones throw away from it there in S Weymouth and when the Euro bumps west tonight to match the Ukie, you'll wake up in a warning in the morning and laugh at Wood

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It wasn't as robust as the 6z, but much better than the 12z run. It matches up with the BOX WSW as of now.

 

Yeah, Personally I'd take a blend of ALL guidance right now with the 12km NAM & Euro being the opposite extremes.  Play it right down the middle.  I like what BOX did throwing up the WSW,  They may expand that west a bit to cover Bristol but that's still up in the air.  At this point I would not have enough confidence to N & W of the BOS/PVD corridor with much more than minor accumulations.  I do feel the area right around the Canal is best still for 2-4" possibly more.  See what 00z has tomight.

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Yeah, Personally I'd take a blend of ALL guidance right now with the 12km NAM & Euro being the opposite extremes.  Play it right down the middle.  I like what BOX did throwing up the WSW,  They may expand that west a bit to cover Bristol but that's still up in the air.  At this point I would not have enough confidence to N & W of the BOS/PVD corridor with much more than minor accumulations.  I do feel the area right around the Canal is best still for 2-4" possibly more.  See what 00z has tomight.

this

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RGEM to me looks like it might have gone a touch east with the heavier precip, but the overall precip shield makes it a little further NW. Pretty similar in the grand scheme of things to the 12z solution -- nice middle ground between Euro/UKMET and GFS/NAM as of now.

The RGEM has he an eastward bias this winter on most events beyond 24-30 for some reason, that's a bit out of its usual tendency

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