Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 There's now enough guidance including the big boys to officially count this as a legit threat.It probably beings some mixing issues initially but should transition to snow. Big bend back NW as a few knowledgable posters mentioned could happen with the baroclinic zone remaining closely.Here's a crude Ukie map to illustrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 There's now enough guidance including the big boys to officially count this as a legit threat. It probably beings some mixing issues initially but should transition to snow. Big bend back NW as a few knowledgable posters mentioned could happen with the baroclinic zone remaining closely. Here's a crude Ukie map to illustrate. You sure that's not all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 You sure that's not all rain?With those thicknesses it might be initially,, but with Ukie very hard to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 You sure that's not all rain? 850s are fine throughout, surface is marginal but by how much I don't know. Could be anywhere from 0.01c to 5c based off the maps I have. My guess is that the Ukie verbatim would be rain to a couple inches of snow for eastern areas, but as Kevin said, no way to know really considering the lousy parameters we get on that model. Euro is snow to the cape though and I trust it's temp profiles a lot more than I do the Ukie's. I've been high on this threat for several days now and still think it has potential to be advisoryish for BOS-PVD corridor, longshot sure but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 850s are fine throughout, surface is marginal but by how much I don't know. Could be anywhere from 0.01c to 5c based off the maps I have. My guess is that the Ukie verbatim would be rain to a couple inches of snow for eastern areas, but as Kevin said, no way to know really considering the lousy parameters we get on that model. Euro is snow to the cape though and I trust it's temp profiles a lot more than I do the Ukie's. I've been high on this threat for several days now and still think it has potential to be advisoryish for BOS-PVD corridor, longshot sure but not impossible. Most kissed this OTS but it's always been prudent in my mind to watch given the season so far. Even if it's 1-3 or 2-4 or whatever. Appears like we have 10-14 days of winter upcoming before flip back to warmth, so let's maximize what we can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 850s are fine throughout, surface is marginal but by how much I don't know. Could be anywhere from 0.01c to 5c based off the maps I have. My guess is that the Ukie verbatim would be rain to a couple inches of snow for eastern areas, but as Kevin said, no way to know really considering the lousy parameters we get on that model. Euro is snow to the cape though and I trust it's temp profiles a lot more than I do the Ukie's. I've been high on this threat for several days now and still think it has potential to be advisoryish for BOS-PVD corridor, longshot sure but not impossible. They look fine at that frame but 12 hours earlier they are +5 to +10. So it's hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 540 contour is pretty far inland on the uncle, Looks to be more liquid then frozen from that map but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Srefs pretty far west but not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Most kissed this OTS but it's always been prudent in my mind to watch given the season so far. Even if it's 1-3 or 2-4 or whatever. Appears like we have 10-14 days of winter upcoming before flip back to warmth, so let's maximize what we can I still think the CT River valley is too far west, I didn't eliminate a late bump west but never thought it would be enough to get more than flurries back here and I stand by that. If I'm wrong than congrats. I'd be more interested in SE New England if thermal profiles and BL temps co-operate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 NAM will be north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 EPS has some hits. Think it's time to take this event seriously and kiss land instead of OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Meh for anyone outside of SEMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Still looks me would need a huge shift at 0z this threat is pretty much dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Still looks me would need a huge shift at 0z this threat is pretty much deadWhat are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Still looks me would need a huge shift at 0z this threat is pretty much dead Speak for the few out in the sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The 12K NAM is a lot closer. What a weird time to declare a threat dead, right after the EURO, EPS, GGEM, and UKIE also showed a significant jump west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 The 12K NAM is a lot closer. What a weird time to declare a threat dead, right after the EURO, EPS, GGEM, and UKIE also showed a significant jump west. He typically focuses on HBY..EPS has some decent hits. If trends continue could be like 1-3 river east with advisory snows N RI east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 He typically focuses on HBY..EPS has some decent hits. If trends continue could be like 1-3 river east with advisory snows N RI east I wish you luck. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F072.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Ray and Jeff are somewhere screaming at the top of their lungs. THESE THINGS NEVER WORK OUT. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I wish you luck. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F072.html Hey you improved on your GEFS maps, cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Hey you improved on your GEFS maps, coolMy library of links is up to about 8% of yours now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 My library of links is up to about 8% of yours now Albany is fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 I wish you luck. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F072.html Why would you be using the gefs with a SE bias ..especially for an event like this that is based off warm sat's and baroclinic zone. Why not post the EPS hits and/or the sref's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 This event looks like garbage. Just got exited for nothing. Saw the thread then looked at the models. Get off the meth Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Why would you be using the gefs with a SE bias ..especially for an event like this that is based off warm sat's and baroclinic zone. Why not post the EPS hits and/or the sref's? No access, and srefs. Srefs went south btw.Agree gfs has se bias. But that's 0/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 18z GFS took a fairly large tick NW -- one more that size and we'd have a decent event lined up for southern and eastern areas. A bit warm verbatim at the surface but it's a nice step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GFS, NAM, Euro, 4k NAM all nothing. GEM brushes the area. Guess one could ride the Canadien. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Wow the GFS came way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GFS, NAM, Euro, 4k NAM all nothing. GEM brushes the area. Guess one could ride the Canadien. Lol Euro isn't nothing. Can't post maps but it gets a half inch of snow into most of eastern MA and has advisory criteria on the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 18z GFS took a fairly large tick NW -- one more that size and we'd have a decent event lined up for southern and eastern areas. A bit warm verbatim at the surface but it's a nice step in the right direction. Everything playing catchup to Ukie. Euro will make another nice surge NW tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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