SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 2:50 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: precip distribution looks further west to me on rgem. I thought that also. I don't like making calls on it until I can see the meteocentre maps because I've been burned more times than I can count trying to estimate QPF off of those hourlies but it did look further west to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm going by 925 temps for snow or rain in the heavy dump time. I still think maybe 5-6am for me to changeover. FOUS shows a snow column for sure once we get toward dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 2:54 AM, weathafella said: I'm going by 925 temps for snow or rain in the heavy dump time. I still think maybe 5-6am for me to changeover. FOUS shows a snow column for sure once we get toward dawn.Mexican food again FTMFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 2:54 AM, weathafella said: I'm going by 925 temps for snow or rain in the heavy dump time. I still think maybe 5-6am for me to changeover. FOUS shows a snow column for sure once we get toward dawn. Might be a good line to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I should be good by about 4am. I like where I sit.....been about a year since I've typed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 2:50 AM, Ginx snewx said: we wet bulb like a flash I 'wet bulbed' like a flash too… the temp dropped… while the dew went up… (4 degrees to be exact to 40) and hasn't budged since… I get that it will drop at some point. But luckily for most areas away from the S and SE coast, the dew is cool enough so the rise in the dew won't make that big of a difference in precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The HRRR/RAP go nuts mid to late morning into early aftn tomorrow. Those are are raining at 12z will pound pasties 2 hrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 2:58 AM, RIcoastalWX said: I 'wet bulbed' like a flash too… the temp dropped… while the dew went up… (4 degrees to be exact to 40) and hasn't budged since… I get that it will drop at some point. But luckily for most areas away from the S and SE coast, the dew is cool enough so the rise in the dew won't make that big of a difference in precip type."that's not how it's done,that's just not how it's done" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 2:23 AM, Chrisrotary12 said: I think this is what I am rolling with. Amazing how the concavity of DEME has a significant affect on QPF totals. New to the area so trying to get used to the nuances of being on the coast and maybe in times like these we overproduce, crossing fingers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:00 AM, CoastalWx said: The HRRR/RAP go nuts mid to late morning into early aftn tomorrow. Those are are raining at 12z will pound pasties 2 hrs later.You should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 8-10" a safe call for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:05 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: You should do well. I'm hoping we do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:08 AM, Whineminster said: I'm hoping we do better You guys should do pretty well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:13 AM, CoastalWx said: You guys should do pretty well I think. Yeah I'm thinking 5" or so, I'll take it. Today basically melted any of the ice pack that was left in the woods so it's time for a refresh. Still looks like a SE MA winter for the next couple weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 So, the RGEM actually cut way back on snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:18 AM, JC-CT said: So, the RGEM actually cut way back on snow just a bit less for SE MA from 18z. but more for the western fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:18 AM, JC-CT said: So, the RGEM actually cut way back on snow Looks like 12z. Seems reasonable, although I think there may be a stripe of 8-12 somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I don't care at this point. I'm riding with a general 5-10". Noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:20 AM, CoastalWx said: Looks like 12z. Seems reasonable, although I think there may be a stripe of 8-12 somewhere. It took a step back in overall qpf I'm sorry Scott, you're right it looks like 12z. Which is a step back from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:21 AM, JC-CT said: It took a step back in overall qpf Not shocking...it was really juicy at 18z. The half inch qpf line basically didn't move...just those 1-1.5" qpf totals were shaved down, which in a fast moving system like this can be envisioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:21 AM, JC-CT said: It took a step back in overall qpf I'm sorry Scott, you're right it looks like 12z. Which is a step back from 18z. Some of those models with real high totals may scale back a bit, but it doesn't change the idea of an area getting crushed from like 9am-2pm or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:24 AM, CoastalWx said: Some of those models with real high totals may scale back a bit, but it doesn't change the idea of an area getting crushed from like 9am-2pm or something like that.Right. Just saying what it showed.I am a bit concerned that BOX knows something I don't (and OKX doesn't) back this way. It wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:24 AM, CoastalWx said: Some of those models with real high totals may scale back a bit, but it doesn't change the idea of an area getting crushed from like 9am-2pm or something like that. It just confirms everyone was right for not going ginxy wild and forecasting 1'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Look at the orientation of the radar. I am in BOS this evening traveling home tomorrow. Definitely looks good from radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Does the dew point and the temperature have to match for it to precipitate? im at 37/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 BOX map is still from 6 hrs ago......it will change upwards and the HFD CTY WSW will fly.....watch.....melt on hold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:28 AM, WhiteLawns said: Does the dew point and the temperature have to match for it to precipitate? im at 37/27 Pretty much.....otherwise it evaporates before it hits the ground.....smokin virga as they say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 2/5/2016 at 3:28 AM, WhiteLawns said: Does the dew point and the temperature have to match for it to precipitate? im at 37/27 No is the simple answer. They will continue to converge after the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 GFS still pretty warm verbatim, similar look to 18z on QPF though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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