UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah Ulster is a little too far up there. Morris County does well, specifically far North. Granted I'm southern ulster, I'm about 2 miles from the Orange County border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Granted I'm southern ulster, I'm about 2 miles from the Orange County border... Well, maybe you'll get in on something then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Guess no one read Upton afternoon update but they think the storm Monday will tend west as had been the case lately. They also noted one or 2 models shifted west. Lemme get the update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 000 FXUS61 KOKX 052058 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 358 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES TRACKS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLC LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...HAS FALLEN ACROSS LI AND CT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH REGIONS. THE HEAVY WET SNOW...COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S...WILL CONTINUE A DANGEROUS THREAT FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...COUPLE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW. A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE SOUTHERN US SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING CENTRAL US TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. FOR THE TRI-STATE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOWPACK. POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN. A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN. THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH. AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS 977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON. WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5 LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS. ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS KGON SHORTLY...WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT. .TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY. .WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS INTO THE WATERS. THE SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO SOUTHERLY SWELLS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS INT SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON OCEAN WATERS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JC MARINE...JMC/NV HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Though I do believe Upton's call in the afternoon update is strictly out of expected conservative caution when dealing with such a beast I got to admit they pulled me back in....just when I thought I was out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I think there is a decent chance that it does track west. The interaction of the short wave coming in will make a big difference. Many things can change I believe it will change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm not sure about the mon deal, I'm thinking it's a miss. I'm not sure the trough can go neg tilt quickly enough to get it in here. I could be wrong of course. I do think tues/wed could be interesting though. If that first storm can get out of the way quickly enough, and heights can recover a bit more than is being modeled right now (18z GFS) it could be good. Definitely not writing anything off for this week yet. This is the 18z GFS, 90hrs out, plenty of time for some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z ecmwf shifted the Monday storm west also I just noticed, I've had no chance to look at anything with plowing today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z eps was a west shift as well... 12z gefs was east,along with esemble 12z Geps was a shift west as well It's ensemble does look to shift west a bit as well... I dunno if everyone was just focused mainly on today but, to me that does look like something that needs to be monitored... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I think there is a decent chance that it does track west. The interaction of the short wave coming in will make a big difference. Many thins can ann I believe will change.. Exactly my thoughts too. The talk around this forum and other forums is that we need proper spacing between the two waves so that the northern shortwave has room to dig and intensify. That's a fact. But another interesting scenario which you just hinted on and hasn't been talked about is if the offshore low can come close enough, the northern wave could pinwheel the low up the coast, or better yet a phasing between the two systems. We're also undergoing a stratospheric warming event which could be giving the models fits. Pretty much everything is on the table from a light snow event to a crippling blizzard. It will be very interesting how this all unfolds during the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Which storm (if it's full potential was realized) has a better shot at getting us another all out Blizzard? The Monday Miller A or the Tuesday/Wednesday Miller B? I'm assuming asking for both would be a bit much right, lol. -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Which storm (if it's full potential was realized) has a better shot at getting us another all out Blizzard? The Monday Miller A or the Tuesday/Wednesday Miller B? I'm assuming asking for both would be a bit much right, lol. -Jason As of right now I would say you stand a better chance of the Miller A producing for us. The models have been creeping the storm westward, and it remains to be seen how close it gets to us. That in turn is making the Miller B scenario less and less likely. As for your second question, only one storm can be the dominate one if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 As of right now I would say you stand a better chance of the Miller A producing for us. The models have been creeping the storm westward, and it remains to be seen how close it gets to us. That in turn is making the Miller B scenario less and less likely. As for your second question, only one storm can be the dominate one if at all.Ok then that settles it. We do the Monday Miller A then. Thanks for the breakdown brother! We ride the NW trend is ur friend.-Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Compared to the GFS at HR 48, the NAM is wayyyyyyyy west, 150+ miles easily.. Let's see how it finishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 By 57 they're about the same placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Man the nam is really close lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Man the nam is really close lol exactly and plenty of time to trend west if things change a little upstream and or downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Man the nam is really close lol Monster just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Initial low gives Long Island and city 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 4k NAM is slightly further west of the 12k NAM at hour 51 if im not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 4k NAM is slightly further west of the 12k NAM at hour 51 if im not mistaken A 966mb monster and it's not even done strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 4k NAM is slightly further west of the 12k NAM at hour 51 if im not mistaken yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam develops secondary low off of North Carolina shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 this can't be right, can it? 959mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 we are in business according to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 this can't be right, can it? 959mb Time will tell BUT the the west trend has prevailed this winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It looks like a CAT 3 Hurricane. What do we need to get this monstrous thing to nail the whole sub-forum? Another shift of 250 miles more West? -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 If that comes close to verifying I'm going to have to postpone my drive to Florida for a day to cover this at the inlet....can't turn down two monster storms in a month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 4k Nam crushes LI . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It looks like a CAT 3 Hurricane. What do we need to get this monstrous thing to nail the whole sub-forum? Another shift of 250 miles more West? -Jason Need that trough coming down to start turning negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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