UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Remember that every storm has trended NW this year Not far enough Storms have not necessarily trended NW this year with the Low placement, but the precip shields and heaviest precip for that matter have in fact trended NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 What did the 12z Ukie show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Since nobody said a word about he EURO I take it out we struck out on both short waves, like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Since nobody said a word about he EURO I take it out we struck out on both short waves, like the GFS? Yes just light snow for many hours. Storm 2 stays really strong offshore which messes up storm 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Since nobody said a word about he EURO I take it out we struck out on both short waves, like the GFS? I wouldn't say we struck out with GFS. It shows a prolonged snow event and gives much of the area .50+ of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I wouldn't say we struck out with GFS. It shows a prolonged snow event and gives much of the area .50+ of QPF. Yeah but when does that ever work out? 48 hours of light snow with marginal temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yes just light snow for many hours. Storm 2 stays really strong offshore which messes up storm 3.Unfortunate there was so much potential. Let's wait and see, you never know things have been turning around last second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Unfortunate there was so much potential. Let's wait and see, you never know things have been turning around last second I think we need to focus on the first storm offshore and see if it can make any substantial strides westward in future runs. I'd rather take my chances with a miller A anyways. Miller B storms always seems to be hard to come by in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah but when does that ever work out? 48 hours of light snow with marginal temps? That's a good point. But let's see what happens ... plenty of time. Look at how close Monday's big coastal storm is on 12z NAM. Wouldn't take much of a shift to give us something good. And you never know with a possible inverted trough tuesday into Wednesday. There's potential for something to work out. If not, we should at least get some light accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 That's a good point. But let's see what happens ... plenty of time. Look at how close Monday's big coastal storm is on 12z NAM. Wouldn't take much of a shift to give us something good. And you never know with a possible inverted trough tuesday into Wednesday. There's potential for something to work out. If not, we should at least get some light accumulations. Yeah I'm not counting anything out at this point. The Gfs is also quite cold by late next week and going forward so its not like we won't have more opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I think we need to focus on the first storm offshore and see if it can make any substantial strides westward in future runs. I'd rather take my chances with a miller A anyways. Miller B storms always seems to be hard to come by in this neck of the woods. Agreed completely. We need to find a way to get that storm to come up the coast (as if we play a role in that). Hopefully we can get it to work out. Maybe the storm that just exited will strengthen enough to assist with blocking. Guess we'll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 15z SREF is more west with the 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Seems like a complicated synoptic setup with at least three sw's involved. Having a tough time piecing the picture together from reading the threads (e.g., Was today's storm "Wave #1?"). Can somebody just post a quick summary of what's involved here and what we are looking to have happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 15z SREF is more west with the 2nd storm I absolutely refuse to look at the SREFS to determine placement and precip shield expansion... 2 storms in a row now, SREFS had me and surrounding areas plenty wet, without a single flake falling... I'm not using the SREFS unless It's to determine how much, not if, it's gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I still would like to know who subtitled this thread as let's get one more biggie and then call it a winter. First of all who wants to call it a winter on February 9, and the second thing is for anyone North of I 287 we're still waiting for it to become a winter. Just my thoughts, no animosity intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Upton has snow likely Monday through Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I absolutely refuse to look at the SREFS to determine placement and precip shield expansion... 2 storms in a row now, SREFS had me and surrounding areas plenty wet, without a single flake falling... I'm not using the SREFS unless It's to determine how much, not if, it's gonna snow The SREFs, as I have learned, are useful to determine trends. They may not be the most accurate, and they are not gospel by any means, but in my experience (very limited), they have proven helpful when simply looking at the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The nam at its ending looks to be hitting at a decent solution, problem is the main wave is very strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The nam at its ending looks to be hitting at a decent solution, problem is the main wave is very strong Good. Let's crank that thing up and get it as close to the coast as possible. At this point, it appears clear that the first wave will not be weak and/or out to sea enough to allow the second wave to bomb out and move up the coast. So just makes sense to root for the first wave now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It looks like bad luck as the offshore storm messes up the next wave. I don't see the offshore storm trending too much better for us. A shame because the follow up wave could've spawned a really powerful storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The nam is 3-4" area wide by 06z Tuesday, and second wave hasn't even formed yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It looks like bad luck as the offshore storm messes up the next wave. I don't see the offshore storm trending too much better for us. A shame because the follow up wave could've spawned a really powerful storm. Even so this has the potential for a long duration snow event, however light the snow is, it could add up to 6+ for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The nam is 3-4" area wide by 06z Tuesday, and second wave hasn't even formed yet Is wave 1 the deep storm moving far off the coast Sun-Mon? If that is the case the snow on the NAM is associated with incoming energy with the next wave. Think there is near zero chance of the Sun-Mon storm significantly impacting the area. Think the energy coming in Tue AM could lead to some area wide light snow, any bigger amounts likely near the coast if it can blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It looks like bad luck as the offshore storm messes up the next wave. I don't see the offshore storm trending too much better for us. A shame because the follow up wave could've spawned a really powerful storm. Maybe, but it would have been a Miller B, and those systems have not been favorable to most places in this subforum (with the exception of LI) in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 When all is said and done 18z GFS, has most at .50-.75+, Extreme LHV, NNJ, ECT jackpot with 1.0"+.... Edit: there's ALOT of varying precip totals, lots of "lollies" of 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 When all is said and done 18z GFS, has most at .50-.75+, Extreme LHV, NNJ, ECT jackpot with 1.0"+.... Edit: there's ALOT of varying precip totals, lots of "lollies" of 1"+ I'd be happy to give you this one. I have almost 30" this season and I don't want much more lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 When all is said and done 18z GFS, has most at .50-.75+, Extreme LHV, NNJ, ECT jackpot with 1.0"+.... Edit: there's ALOT of varying precip totals, lots of "lollies" of 1"+ How about areas like the Poconos, Catskills, and far NW NJ? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 How about areas like the Poconos, Catskills, and far NW NJ? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'd be happy to give you this one. I have almost 30" this season and I don't want much more lol I'm still too far north as of now, southern Rockland, and Orange County, through putnum are the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm still too far north as of now, southern Rockland, and Orange County, through putnum are the sweet spot Yeah Ulster is a little too far up there. Morris County does well, specifically far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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