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2/9-2/10 Inverted Trough/Mini-Coastal Storm


Zelocita Weather

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From my weather models I see this storm as a phase of both systems. This would result in a monster storm. I don't think the first system gets kicked out to sea like that. I think navgem has a great idea here. And may be onto something. Let's see if the models correct themselves into a merge with these two systems hopefully the 3rd system coming down from the lakes doesn't strengthen enough for it to kick the 2nd system out, instead is weaker than 2nd system and merged together and becomes a mega storm! This could realistically speaking become a mega storm if both storms merge. Though a fast moving pattern nevertheless it could drop massive amounts of snow on our region. Take a look at the navgem it almost merges both systems e64be1c1cfb712977d64687ac4899e98.jpg

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PB what's precip totals on ukie? For some reason I'm a whole set of runs behinds on it

 

Precip only goes out to 72 hours on my site .

 

That would be a big hit .

 

 

BTW the Euro is really close to a very good solution . 

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What did it show? Better then the 0z run?

 

At 0z wave 2 just shears waves 3  apart . Wave 2 was too close it just flattens the flow ahead of it and Wave 3 could not  dig and deepen and was a weak appendage that sailed on by  to our S

 

At 12z wave 2 escapes E a little quicker it allows for wave 3 to dig a little more , however it closes off a little too late for us .

It still snows but i is not what it could be .

 

The UKMET closes this off further S digs further S gets to OBX and then deepens up the EC . It kicks wave 2 way OTS quicker .

 

The EURO is closer at 12z but still needs some work . We need better wave spacing and we really want no interaction with wave 2 . 

That will give the 3rd wave the room it needs to dig, deepen and close off 

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At 0z wave 2 just shears waves 3 apart . Wave 2 was too close it just flattens the flow ahead of it and Wave 3 could not dig and deepen and was a weak appendage that sailed on by to our S

At 12z wave 2 escapes E a little quicker it allows for wave 3 to dig a little more , however it closes off a little too late for us .

It still snows but i is not what it could be .

The UKMET closes this off further S digs further S gets to OBX and then deepens up the EC . It kicks wave 2 way OTS quicker .

The EURO is closer at 12z but still needs some work . We need better wave spacing and we really want no interaction with wave 2 .

That will give the 3rd wave the room it needs to dig, deepen and close off

It's amazing that having so many possibly storms could cause us to strike out completely.

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Some interesting analogs for this storm

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2016020412

 

1) 3/1/2005 - Quite Snowy

2) 2/27/13 - Ice to Rain interior, Rain coast

3) 1/14/08 - New England Event

4) 1/11/87 - New England Event

5) 12/30/97 - Big hit for the interior, 2" of rain on the coast

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gefs mean very close to the eps. A good amount of the members are tucked in under LI

If the low rides and tucks off Long Island, we may finally get the elusive Board wide storm, IF, and only IF, it ticks off the south shore, everyone including NEPA, most of Jersey, NYC, NE, and the Hudson valley could see up to a foot

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