UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Would be my biggest yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 IF THIS CAN DIG FURTHER S AN NEG TILT JUST 6 HOURS EARLIER IT WOULD BE A BEAST . THERE IS A TON ON ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE ENTIRE TROUGH . Your caps lock is stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 IF WE CAN CONSOLIDATE THIS AND DIG IT FURTHER SOUTH ITS A DEEPER STORM FOR ALL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GGEM? NG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GGEM? Zilch.. Wants nothing to do with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 From my weather models I see this storm as a phase of both systems. This would result in a monster storm. I don't think the first system gets kicked out to sea like that. I think navgem has a great idea here. And may be onto something. Let's see if the models correct themselves into a merge with these two systems hopefully the 3rd system coming down from the lakes doesn't strengthen enough for it to kick the 2nd system out, instead is weaker than 2nd system and merged together and becomes a mega storm! This could realistically speaking become a mega storm if both storms merge. Though a fast moving pattern nevertheless it could drop massive amounts of snow on our region. Take a look at the navgem it almost merges both systems Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The UKMET lS BEAUTIFUL FOR WAVE 3 25mb drop in 24 hours from OBX to the GOM . Classic track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 PB what's precip totals on ukie? For some reason I'm a whole set of runs behinds on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 PB what's precip totals on ukie? For some reason I'm a whole set of runs behinds on it Precip only goes out to 72 hours on my site . That would be a big hit . BTW the Euro is really close to a very good solution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm hoping we can all cash in on this storm, really need a perfect spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 BTW the Euro is really close to a very good solution . What did it show? Better then the 0z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 What did it show? Better then the 0z run? Euro is still a strike out for most, it's a decent look this far out I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 With the exception of the GFS, I'm not feeling too enthused about this event for the interior especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 What did it show? Better then the 0z run? At 0z wave 2 just shears waves 3 apart . Wave 2 was too close it just flattens the flow ahead of it and Wave 3 could not dig and deepen and was a weak appendage that sailed on by to our S At 12z wave 2 escapes E a little quicker it allows for wave 3 to dig a little more , however it closes off a little too late for us . It still snows but i is not what it could be . The UKMET closes this off further S digs further S gets to OBX and then deepens up the EC . It kicks wave 2 way OTS quicker . The EURO is closer at 12z but still needs some work . We need better wave spacing and we really want no interaction with wave 2 . That will give the 3rd wave the room it needs to dig, deepen and close off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Euros a 1-3" deal for most of Long Island , 1-2 NYC, 3-6" from central to southern jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 At 0z wave 2 just shears waves 3 apart . Wave 2 was too close it just flattens the flow ahead of it and Wave 3 could not dig and deepen and was a weak appendage that sailed on by to our S At 12z wave 2 escapes E a little quicker it allows for wave 3 to dig a little more , however it closes off a little too late for us . It still snows but i is not what it could be . The UKMET closes this off further S digs further S gets to OBX and then deepens up the EC . It kicks wave 2 way OTS quicker . The EURO is closer at 12z but still needs some work . We need better wave spacing and we really want no interaction with wave 2 . That will give the 3rd wave the room it needs to dig, deepen and close off It's amazing that having so many possibly storms could cause us to strike out completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Eps is centered near the benchmark for the 3rd storm. Looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Everything with this storm is 100% depending on the first wave.. If the first wave is weak and pushes OTS, then We are in business for a MECS, even interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Everything with this storm is 100% depending on the first wave.. If the first wave is weak and pushes OTS, then We are in business for a MECS, even interior Yup Let's keep our fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 EPS brings wave 3 from Mid atlantic coast to just over the benchmark 996. Thats a pretty strong signal for a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Some interesting analogs for this storm http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2016020412 1) 3/1/2005 - Quite Snowy 2) 2/27/13 - Ice to Rain interior, Rain coast 3) 1/14/08 - New England Event 4) 1/11/87 - New England Event 5) 12/30/97 - Big hit for the interior, 2" of rain on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wave 1 is weak and OTS... Exactly what we need so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I light snow by 06z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Lol, somehow the GFS and trended worse... Not sure why tho, initial wave came OTS and was weak, not sure why low formed so far off coast, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Not a total miss just not the outcome we had at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 gefs mean very close to the eps. A good amount of the members are tucked in under LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 gefs mean very close to the eps. A good amount of the members are tucked in under LI Some of the indies look nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Some of the indies look nuts. Yep! A ton of them are monsters! Its very encouraging to see the eps and gefs agree on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 gefs mean very close to the eps. A good amount of the members are tucked in under LI If the low rides and tucks off Long Island, we may finally get the elusive Board wide storm, IF, and only IF, it ticks off the south shore, everyone including NEPA, most of Jersey, NYC, NE, and the Hudson valley could see up to a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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