UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 00z nam says it's time to call it a night, snow showers.. Less than an inch for most except EPA, upstate NY, and parts of eastern Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looking ugly as he** but who knows, maybe an inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Latest Misery loves company, lol. Didn't see this posted yet. As I said on another board, I think the NWS has begun the long slow reduction in forecast snowfall amounts, although they kept most of the advisories, for continuity sake, even though advisory criterion is 3" or more for counties north of 276/195 in PA/NJ (and all the NYC metro counties). Have seen this rodeo before, lol. Have seen maybe 1/4" tonight after our 1/2" this morning - will see if we can get to 2" total, so at least the 2-4" advisory can verify. Not confident in getting even that much. Where's Rtd208? He gets the jackpot on this map, at least in Central Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I really wouldn't call that a bust, expectations were far to elevated for this event, especially after the initial wave came so close to the coast Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Misery loves company, lol. Didn't see this posted yet. As I said on another board, I think the NWS has begun the long slow reduction in forecast snowfall amounts, although they kept most of the advisories, for continuity sake, even though advisory criterion is 3" or more for counties north of 276/195 in PA/NJ (and all the NYC metro counties). Have seen this rodeo before, lol. Have seen maybe 1/4" tonight after our 1/2" this morning - will see if we can get to 2" total, so at least the 2-4" advisory can verify. Not confident in getting even that much. Pretty good radar echoes in Mercer County right now, moving northeast. That looks like our hope to pick up a quick half inch to inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Pretty good radar echoes in Mercer County right now, moving northeast. That looks like our hope to pick up a quick half inch to inch. But almost nothing above 20 DBZ, so even an hour of that probably gives 1/4" to maybe 3/8". Looking at how ragged the precip is, best hope to get to 2" might be to have 4-5 of these periods of 1/4" snows overnight, since I don't think we're getting any 1" per hour snowfalls. Of course, I could be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 And Upton pulls the plug on all the advisories...and to think they were actually considering a Watch, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 But almost nothing above 20 DBZ, so even an hour of that probably gives 1/4" to maybe 3/8". Looking at how ragged the precip is, best hope to get to 2" might be to have 4-5 of these periods of 1/4" snows overnight, since I don't think we're getting any 1" per hour snowfalls. Of course, I could be wrong... And of course those decent looking echoes fell apart, and now it's just very light snow moving in. This event is a complete dud. Nothing more than a dusting or coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Misery loves company, lol. Didn't see this posted yet. As I said on another board, I think the NWS has begun the long slow reduction in forecast snowfall amounts, although they kept most of the advisories, for continuity sake, even though advisory criterion is 3" or more for counties north of 276/195 in PA/NJ (and all the NYC metro counties). Have seen this rodeo before, lol. Have seen maybe 1/4" tonight after our 1/2" this morning - will see if we can get to 2" total, so at least the 2-4" advisory can verify. Not confident in getting even that much. Where's Rtd208? He gets the jackpot on this map, at least in Central Jersey... Well at least it wasn't that slow, as the NWS in both Philly and NYC just cancelled all advisories and has reduced their snowfall maps again to a general 1-2" of snow (with half of that having fallen for many) for most locations and less for some. I know some people give DT/WxRisk a lot of grief for his occasional misses (although he's one of the few who owns up to any miss) and for his occasional belligerence, but he nailed yesterday's non-event for NJ, saying it would never amount to much west of the Hudson or for NYC, and he nailed today's event saying he "didn't think it would be a big deal (he didn't even put out a map, lol)." NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 And Upton pulls the plug on all the advisories...and to think they were actually considering a Watch, wow. They had a very tough call to make. I thought they made the right call. Also a smart decision to drop the advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well at least it wasn't that slow, as the NWS in both Philly and NYC just cancelled all advisories and has reduced their snowfall maps again to a general 1-2" of snow (with half of that having fallen for many) for most locations and less for some. I know some people give DT/WxRisk a lot of grief for his occasional misses (although he's one of the few who owns up to any miss) and for his occasional belligerence, but he nailed yesterday's non-event for NJ, saying it would never amount to much west of the Hudson or for NYC, and he nailed today's event saying he "didn't think it would be a big deal (he didn't even put out a map, lol)." NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. He actually did put out a map with 6" up to almost NYC. It was in one of his fb posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 And Upton pulls the plug on all the advisories...and to think they were actually considering a Watch, wow. Well it did look good last night on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well at least it wasn't that slow, as the NWS in both Philly and NYC just cancelled all advisories and has reduced their snowfall maps again to a general 1-2" of snow (with half of that having fallen for many) for most locations and less for some. I know some people give DT/WxRisk a lot of grief for his occasional misses (although he's one of the few who owns up to any miss) and for his occasional belligerence, but he nailed yesterday's non-event for NJ, saying it would never amount to much west of the Hudson or for NYC, and he nailed today's event saying he "didn't think it would be a big deal (he didn't even put out a map, lol)." NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. Not true at all, he did put out a map yesterday and had parts of NJ (mercer county) within the 6" contour on his map. He busted horribly. Not sure where all the hype from this system came from, I thought it was pretty apparent that 2-4" would be about the best we could do if everything went right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Not true at all, he did put out a map yesterday and had parts of NJ (mercer county) within the 6" contour on his map. He busted horribly. Not sure where all the hype from this system came from, I thought it was pretty apparent that 2-4" would be about the best we could do if everything went right. My bad - somehow I completely missed his post and map on today's storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Norluns get much more attention than they're worth. The are rarely modeled well outside of 12 hours (6 hours for this "event"). It's like winning the meteorological lottery if you get one to set up where you are. You're much more likely to end up in a susidence zone than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Actually getting some light to occasionally moderate snow for the past 15-20 minutes. Could eke out another 1/4" with this band to bring me to 1" total for the "storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The lack of blocking, typical difficulty predicting if an inverted trough would develop much less its location, all led to a low snowfall outcome. With the AO poised to go negative for a short time, there may be a better opportunity around mid-month +/- a few days if there is some storminess. FWIW, for the February 16-29, 1950-2015 timeframe, 78% of NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms occurred with an AO-. Finally, even as there is a real possibility that NYC may still remain just short of 30.0" seasonal snowfall after tonight, there is no assurance of a snow squall on Thursday that could produce the needed 0.2", and even if nothing materializes around mid-month (probably following the Arctic blast), it is probably more likely than not that NYC has not yet had its last measurable snowfall. El Niño winters can be snowy in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The lack of blocking, typical difficulty predicting if an inverted trough would develop much less its location, all led to a low snowfall outcome. With the AO poised to go negative for a short time, there may be a better opportunity around mid-month +/- a few days if there is some storminess. FWIW, for the February 16-29, 1950-2015 timeframe, 78% of NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms occurred with an AO-. Finally, even as there is a real possibility that NYC may still remain just short of 30.0" seasonal snowfall after tonight, there is no assurance of a snow squall on Thursday that could produce the needed 0.2", and even if nothing materializes around mid-month (probably following the Arctic blast), it is probably more likely than not that NYC has not yet had its last measurable snowfall. El Niño winters can be snowy in March. It will be interesting to see if NYC can get another 8.4 inches or whatever it is to get them out of what would have been a top least snowy winter if not for the blizzard. There seem to be several El Nino winters that would have been under 10-12 inches if not for one big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Maybe that gust was legit. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cruiseship-storm-idUSKCN0VJ289 U.S. Coast Guard to investigate storm-battered cruise shipOn Sunday it was hit by high winds and 30-foot (9 meter) waves off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, cutting short the cruise. At least four people suffered minor injuries as the storm toppled furniture, collapsed ceilings and shattered glass on the vessel. Royal Caribbean said the storm was more severe than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Maybe that gust was legit. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cruiseship-storm-idUSKCN0VJ289 That gust doesn't mesh with the hourly wind speed. That was one hell of a storm but highly doubt it had wind gusts of 120mph. 80, 90 even sure but 120 something I doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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