UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Anyone expecting more then a dusting is I for a big disappointment. We blew chunks this week Agreed, everyone that was hoping that first wave would trend west, can thank it for screwing us tonight. Hights can't build in time, needed that coastal weak and outta here quicker, oh well, plenty to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Well, next week could be interesting! Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Story of the season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 let's hold off the pessimism until the scene play's out,radar is really starting to look good heading our way and i'm more then certain this will be a 2-4 inch snowfall.throw most of the models away also!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Upton still staying with 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Upton still staying with 2-4 More east, less west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Upton still staying with 2-4 Snow with isolated thunderstorms after midnight! Not bad. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 If we get 2-4 and all models bust we will be happy in short term but highly diconcerting in long term in terms od model dependbility. There have been issues with all the globals now and this time around the Mesos, in particular would be the culprits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 If we get 2-4 and all models bust we will be happy in short term but highly diconcerting in long term in terms od model dependbility. There have been issues with all the globals now and this time around the Mesos, in particular would be the culprits. Normally yes but this is a complex local setup with the ivt. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 317 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 ...SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-100500- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.160209T2300Z-160210T1700Z/ HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 317 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE BANDING SETS UP. SOME AREAS MAY GET AS LOW AS AN INCH OF SNOW. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND...COULD GET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $ They still aren't giving up on the idea someone may get 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 If we get 2-4 and all models bust we will be happy in short term but highly diconcerting in long term in terms od model dependbility. There have been issues with all the globals now and this time around the Mesos, in particular would be the culprits. How often have we gotten thunderstorms in the summer when the models had nothing? or vice versa? I think thats how we have to look at it in this particular situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 More east, less west Dropped in my zone ( Queens) from 3-5 to 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 How often have we gotten thunderstorms in the summer when the models had nothing? or vice versa? I think thats how we have to look at it in this particular situation Point taken but , this has been an obvious trend of under performing models. Lets see how tonight pans out. I wont be surprised if I wind up eeking out an inch, 2 at the most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 When, if any, is the snow supposed to start tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Point taken but , this has been an obvious trend of under performing models. Lets see how tonight pans out. I wont be surprised if I wind up eeking out an inch, 2 at the most Yeah I honestly don't know whats going to happen but I'm expecting the nam and rgem to do better than the euro/gfs. If I have an inch by morning I'll be pleasantly surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 When, if any, is the snow supposed to start tonight? I'd say early evening but the snow seems to be having trouble making it north of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 317 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 ...SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-100500- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.160209T2300Z-160210T1700Z/ HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 317 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE BANDING SETS UP. SOME AREAS MAY GET AS LOW AS AN INCH OF SNOW. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND...COULD GET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $ They still aren't giving up on the idea someone may get 3-5. Link? Mostly because when I click on anything from Upton, such as the snowfall maps, zone forecasts, or the links to the WWAdvisories, I only get info from early this morning, not updated versions and I don't know why (I even cleared out cookies/cache). Edit - I now see it, but only if I go to the point-click map and click on the WWAdvisory from that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Guys - Upton is going general 2-4" with 80% pops and isolated thundersnow after midnight. That's directly in the face of all these model solutions we've all seen the last 24 hrs. That's a pretty confident forecast vs. "a dusting of snow / white flag" crowd. I'll side with the NWS on this one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Where does Upton mention thundersnow after midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Where does Upton mention thundersnow after midnight? Granted this discussion was at 12:56pm but they do mention it. 015 FXUS61 KOKX 091756 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1256 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES EAST OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...DRY CONDS IN PLACE AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 30-35 PER MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSS WED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSER TO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TO FOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLY WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELD COURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD A SIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPS IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATIC STABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATION TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLY CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAM GUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE ASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. They were even considering WSW for the Island/NYC and was wise that didn't and play wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Guys - Upton is going general 2-4" with 80% pops and isolated thundersnow after midnight. That's directly in the face of all these model solutions we've all seen the last 24 hrs. That's a pretty confident forecast vs. "a dusting of snow / white flag" crowd. I'll side with the NWS on this one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If I wake up tomorrow with nothing on the ground, I won't be disappointed; if I wake up with a few inches, I'll be happily surprised.Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Where does Upton mention thundersnow after midnight? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NY&prodtype=zone#ZFPOKX Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NY&prodtype=zone#ZFPOKX Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I still don't know why zone and point and click forecasts are always different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Hrrr looks OK. Waiting for rest too load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I still don't know why zone and point and click forecasts are always different I always go for the zone. Click forecasts are computer generated. I prefer the zone write ups as they are usually more detailed. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Lee Goldberg is coating to 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Lee Goldberg is coating to 2 inches He's a Model worshiper Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I still don't know why zone and point and click forecasts are always different I think part of the reason may be because they are computer generated but I am not completely sure on that versus a forecast discussion and a text zone forecast being put together by an actual meteorologist. Maybe someone with better knowledge can confirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The radar just to our southwest does not look to bad, like mentioned by some others this is a nowcast event. I think 2-4" is a pretty good call at the moment, some places will probably pick up a little more while others pick up a little less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 -- Remove Highlighting -- -- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. -- 000 FXUS61 KOKX 092109 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 409 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion -- LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion -- LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...AND THEN PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND TOWARDS THE 40/70 BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND THEN AS BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...THOSE BANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST NAM KEEPS THE HEAVIER BANDS OFFSHORE...WHILE THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THEM ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY INDICATE MUCH BANDING...AND HAS MINIMAL LIQUID QPF OVERALL. IF THOSE SNOW BANDS MATERIALIZE AND MOVE ONSHORE...THOSE AREAS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LONG ISLAND...PICKING UP 3-5 INCHES. THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDELY VARIABLE...WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORY NOT GETTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE BANDS SET UP. IN ADDITION...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH 40 IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...HEIGHT AND TEMP FIELD ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 SD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT -25 TO -30 DEG C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT STRUGGLING TO GET TO 20 AND NOT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...-15 TO -24 DEG F. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI PASSES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND IN FACT MANY YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND AGAIN SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN FACT...WINDS ON THESE DAYS WILL LIKELY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THUS...THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SAT INTO SUN. AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING OF A SNOW SQUALL ASSOC WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRMASS MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE WITH HIGH IN 30S MON AND INTO THE 40S ON TUE. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT...BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR...BUT SOME VFR NORTH OF THE CITY THRU MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CATS LOWER THIS EVENING WITH SNOW. FOR ALL TERMINALS...THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. WINDS E TO VAR AROUND 5KT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COULD POSSIBLY PREVAIL INSTEAD OF TEMPO THRU 23Z. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COULD POSSIBLY PREVAIL INSTEAD OF TEMPO THRU 23Z. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 23Z. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 23Z. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SUB-VFR COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COULD POSSIBLY PREVAIL INSTEAD OF TEMPO BEFORE 23Z...BUT TEMPO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDS PM...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT. .THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT. .FRI...VFR. .SAT...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS 25-30KT. .SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-25KT. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .MARINE... -- Changed Discussion -- SCA CONDS PERSIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY FOR HIGH SEAS TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL HOIST SCA FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU WITH A STRONG NW GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS RETURN SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion -- LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT WIT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH THE CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PTYPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... -- Changed Discussion -- A GRADUALLY DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NY HARBOR...COASTAL NE NJ AND WESTERN LI SOUND WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AND LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. SURGE LOWERS FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHTS HIGH TIDE...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI. SURF WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SO BEACH IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... -- Changed Discussion -- CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-106-108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. -- End Changed Discussion -- && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I guess the RGEM wasn't good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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