IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The 12z NAM has an area of mid-level lift with embedded areas of stronger lift. Perhaps some need to temper expectations some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z Nam is bad for a lot of people for anyone still model watching especially for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z Nam is bad for a lot of people for anyone still model watching especially for the NYC area I'm not saying that we're going to see a lot of snow from this but you can't just look at QPF outputs and make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I'm not saying that we're going to see a lot of snow from this but you can't just look at QPF outputs and make a forecast. Lets see how the radar is looking by afternoon time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is indeed a very now casting situation. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The only thing modeled consistently all week has been the area in SE Pa and down into the Baltimore area for whatever you want to call it ivt, burst of heavier snow and good accumulations. The rest looks paltry at best. I don't think NYC even sees an inch out of this. Snow showers for most of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z nam stays the course. It bears absolutely no resemblance to anything Upton is saying and gives our region practically zilch qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Lets see how the radar is looking by afternoon time. Already falling apart over central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z nam stays the course. It bears absolutely no resemblance to anything Upton is saying and gives our region practically zilch qpf. Yep sadly it has had the hot hand and is probably correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yep sadly it has had the hot hand and is probably correctOnward and forward, as they say.Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Apart from a few model runs here and there, the area was never modeled to get anything more than 2-4". The event is really underway now, and the models are becoming increasingly accurate. The hi res short terms all show the band developing where you can see it developing right now on radar. Hopefully there's a surprise in store, but I wouldn't mind an inch or so from this if it can stay on the ground several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yep sadly it has had the hot hand and is probably correct How does it have the hot hand when the Nam was showing a few inches last night. If anything, the Euro has the hot hand with this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 How does it have the hot hand when the Nam was showing a few inches last night. If anything, the Euro has the hot hand with this situation.Not this event necessarily but in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 RGEM just has snow showers. Not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Definitely a now cast event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 patience my friends,if anything the moisture down south is stronger then modeled so that might be a plus,and it's starting to push nne again.it's still early in the game to call any meaningful accumulations off folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Definitely a now cast event Any widespread snow is done. The only nowcast part is scattered snow squalls that can drop coatings to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is what the GFS showed on Feb 3 for today's storm. Any widespread snow is done. The only nowcast part is scattered snow squalls that can drop coatings to an inch. Maybe but inverted troughs can put up anywhere out of no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Any widespread snow is done. The only nowcast part is scattered snow squalls that can drop coatings to an inch. That's fine. Hopefully the squalls come through the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I really hope this pulls through because I lost plenty of sleep this past week tracking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 That's two days in a row Upton issued advisories for my area only to bust badly. I can't see how they keep the accumulation the same now And yes I know tonight didnt bust yet but if this model trend had occured last night I'm sure they would not have issued them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is what the GFS showed on Feb 3 for today's storm. Maybe but inverted troughs can put up anywhere out of no way. really not too far off the setup now. our great lakes low is near michigan still retreating west,and our coastal is still in process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 honestly that pecip down south looks more like just snow showers when it reaches up later on... hopefully I am wrong but an inch at best. Looking at the 12z NAM... .1-.25 is North basically surrounds the whole metro area.. The HV looks to still get a couple inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 RGEM just has snow showers. Not good at all. It 180'd pretty badly from last night where it showed 3-5 inches in many areas, it still has more snow than any other model does though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Lol and the Gfs comes in and gives us .25-.5" overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z gfs looks to develop the low south of li later on. Could be a case of too little too late. Maybe im reading it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Lol and the Gfs comes in and gives us .25-.5" overnightYeah i said the same thing in my head lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Gfs has 2-5 inches. Rgem wasnt that bad either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Lol and the Gfs comes in and gives us .25-.5" overnight i'm still in the camp of 3-5 bud,it's looking good so far for 2-5 across the area.models or not it's gon snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Lol and the Gfs comes in and gives us .25-.5" overnight Take it to the bank. Gfs needs a win...it's probably playing catchup though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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