stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Very little snowfall expected now per Nam/Gfs and I'm not surprised. The cold is much bigger story than this. This makes no sense. Read the AFD from Upton for some science. They issued a WWA for our area (and even considered a WSW). Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Some places have 2"+ and snowing well right now Nice.Maybe the overnight models were wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice.Maybe the overnight models were wrong I always say, don't live and die with each model. You ride the storm to the very end no matter what the Outcome and look for the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice.Maybe the overnight models were wrong 6z Nam and gfs seem too dry for spots getting hit right now..who knows...i guess we will find out tonight what it will do for us up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 6z Nam and gfs seem too dry for spots getting hit right now..who knows...i guess we will find out tonight what it will do for us up here Radar looks good. Nice plume of moisture coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 another day with a snowy look to it.picked up just over a inch yesterday,let's see what today brings.so far everything looks good for later on.that plume is only going to get stronger with a easterly fetch and a low hitting the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Crankyweatherguy on Twitter explains what the issues may be with our IT. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This makes no sense. Read the AFD from Upton for some science. They issued a WWA for our area (and even considered a WSW). Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The science is based on the models. If the models have changed the conditions, the science changes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The science is based on the models. If the models have changed the conditions, the science changes too. Models should be used for guidance and not "the" forecast. Absolutely, science is in the models. I'm just pointing out that 1 model run should not make one jump off a ledge. There are also other variables outside of QPF that should be considered when making a forecast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Crankyweatherguy on Twitter explains what the issues may be with our IT. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pretty informative. Thanks! Should be fun to watch. I personally like 2-3" for KNYC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Radar blossoming in Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 flurries have already started here in the northern bronx with no precip on the radar,only going to get heavier from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 this coastal is going to surprise a lot of people today.it has the look of a exploding monster and it's not even the 2nd quarter yet.a nice easterly fetch is really going to help get this precip going,esp right along the coast tonight,and lets not even mention where a baby ccb will form.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Upton says that the models might not be handling the convection well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Upton says that the models might not be handling the convection well yeah well we going to be in the thick of it sooner then later,lets hope they make the right call for the evening commute if everything continues on track.the radar is really exploding coming right for us snow.even a more crazier sign of things to come,all the birds are flying away fast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 this coastal is going to surprise a lot of people today.it has the look of a exploding monster and it's not even the 2nd quarter yet.a nice easterly fetch is really going to help get this precip going,esp right along the coast tonight,and lets not even mention where a baby ccb will form.. 9z SREF disagrees. In fact, every model disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This makes no sense. Read the AFD from Upton for some science. They issued a WWA for our area (and even considered a WSW). Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Upton has been wrong -- very wrong -- before.Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 9z SREF disagrees. In fact, every model disagrees. I guess you haven't read Upton's discussion. They dont think the models have a good handle with this. Inverted troughs are really tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Upton has been wrong -- very wrong -- before. Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk and the models aren't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Upton has been wrong -- very wrong -- before. Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk This is true but they are more experienced than 95% of us at forecasting weather. I'll give them the nod. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Pretty informative. Thanks! Should be fun to watch. I personally like 2-3" for KNYC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I discovered him during the blizzard. As the storm strengthened that Friday morning, he was pointing out the real time developments that differed from model output.Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The science is based on the models. If the models have changed the conditions, the science changes too. This isn't true, and reflects someone who doesn't understand how weather models work. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The Euro is a high resolution model, it is capable of picking up inverted troughs, which it did not, not even the hint of one, run after run, that should have been a red flag. In fact, last night it dropped snow amounts even more. I must say, I'm not surprised the GFS, NAM and the other models flipped towards the Euro today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Picked up another coating last night. Wasn't even enough to cover the grass in most spots but I did have to clean off my car this morning. These events notoriously have big surprises so I wouldn't be weighting any one particular solution over another at this point. I think 1-3" is a great call at the moment for pretty much everyone with lollies to 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The Euro is a high resolution model, it is capable of picking up inverted troughs, which it did not, not even the hint of one, run after run, that should have been a red flag. In fact, last night it dropped snow amounts even more. I must say, I'm not surprised the GFS, NAM and the other models flipped towards the Euro today The Euro did pick up the IV, it was just weaker and further Southeast which is the route that most of the modeling has gone today. Take a look at 700mb on the Euro and you will see that at 18z today it intensifies the 700mb jet overhead. That quickly kicks East, but it's a sign of some stronger lift for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I guess you haven't read Upton's discussion. They dont think the models have a good handle with this. Inverted troughs are really tricky. I did read it; so what? So every single model is wrong? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 HRRR has been showing the band developing down south near Baltimore (near where we actually see it developing now) and pushing east and out with lighter snow up here fizzling out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 FYI they converted the warnings over to advisories down in SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 HRRR has been showing the band developing down south near Baltimore and pushing east and out with lighter snow up here fizzling out Just keep in mind that the HRRR is still outside of its most useful range for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Models should be used for guidance and not "the" forecast. Absolutely, science is in the models. I'm just pointing out that 1 model run should not make one jump off a ledge. There are also other variables outside of QPF that should be considered when making a forecast. If the models moved to 6 inches overnight every weenie here would be hugging them...but then why tossed when they cut back dramatically. .barely a mention of the gfs/nam runs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.