F5TornadoF5 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nam and GFS both give us 2-4 tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GFS finally has the small coastal. Gives the area between .25-.50 QPF. It finally discovered what some of the higher resolution models had been showing for some time. Whether the ECMWF will be next remains to be seen. Some QPF amounts: BDR: 0.30" BLM: 0.24" DXR: 0.22" GON: 0.15" HVN: 0.25" EWR: 0.32" FOK: 0.44" HPN: 0.30" ISP: 0.42" JFK: 0.34" LGA: 0.32" MMU: 0.37" NYC: 0.30" POU: 0.14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 It finally discovered what some of the higher resolution models had been showing for some time. Whether the ECMWF will be next remains to be seen. Some QPF amounts: BDR: 0.30" BLM: 0.24" DXR: 0.22" GON: 0.15" HVN: 0.25" EWR: 0.32" FOK: 0.44" HPN: 0.30" ISP: 0.42" JFK: 0.34" LGA: 0.32" MMU: 0.37" NYC: 0.30" POU: 0.14" What are we thinking in terms of ratios? Will the development of a coastal kick up the winds enough to cut them down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 What are we thinking in terms of ratios? Will the development of a coastal kick up the winds enough to cut them down? Probably somewhere between 9.5 to 11. The higher part of the range will probably be common in the inverted trough. The soundings will provide more insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GGEM is also now on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Man, those heavier totals are so so close. Really though, setups like this are unpredictable so we won't know what's gonna happen until the event is unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Man, those heavier totals are so so close. Really though, setups like this are unpredictable so we won't know what gonna happen until the event is unfolding. Inverted trough setups like these always are. I'd rather be in one of the areas forecasted to get little 48 hours out from it than under the jackpot given how much these change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Inverted trough setups like these always are. I'd rather be in one of the areas forecasted to get little 48 hours out from it than under the jackpot given how much these change. It`s not a typical IVT . SLP develops E of A/C and tracks to the BM .Its not a skinny 10 mile wide kink in passing LP with bending isobars back to the coast . It`s not a Norlun crap shoot . This is surface LP that`s really acting independent from the main center in the Atlantic . Now whether this is where the actual baroclinic zone sets up ( ALL the guidance but the EURO agree ) is another story . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Ukmet looks a bit further north than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Ukie looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Appears to behave like one as progged. I see your point about the surface low though. True norluns I think can get this wide...correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Solid 3-6in on ukmet for most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Was nice to hear both Nick Gregory and Lee Goldberg referring to "some new model information" and saying they'll likely need to bump up their snowfall forecasts to 2-4" for NYC/North Jersey, basically extending the 2-4" swaths they had for Central Jersey northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Is it just me or is the precip over New York stronger than modeled? I wonder how this will impact the storm tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 How's the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 How's the euro? Idk what's up with euro but it's out there... Like, way out to lunch... Barely has any snow currently lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 According to the euros snow totals, it has me at 0.1" I currently have 2.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Idk what's up with euro but it's out there... Like, way out to lunch... Barely has any snow currently lolprob not the best model to use at this time anyway right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Gfs and nam follows the euro. You cant make this up at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 WWA here for 3-5 inches . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Gfs and nam follows the euro. You cant make this up at allSo they miss us to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Very little snowfall expected now per Nam/Gfs and I'm not surprised. The cold is much bigger story than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 So they miss us to the south? They barely have an inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Now how much precip falls will be the question . The RGEM/UKIE have not waivered here , and I would follow those 2 . S/CNJ could likely be the JP but you will have to see how far N this comes "THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE ANDSOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST" SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MIDLEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSSWED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THEWAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSERTO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE INRESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TOFOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONGISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLYWITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELDCOURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD ASIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPSIDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATICSTABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSERATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHTINTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDERDURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WXADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTOWED MORNING.THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE ANDSOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATIONTONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLYCONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLANDBECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAMGUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVEASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Not looking good down south either Can't sway with every model run. NWS calling for 3-5" in NYC. Don't let the off hour runs affect you this much. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Not looking good down south either Some places have 2"+ and snowing well right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.