ag3 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18Z Rgem looks excellent for this tomorrow night now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z RGEM just came way N Nice hit just like the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hberg you just posted the same thing 10 times in 3 forums big man. Lol, so what, Just letting every sub forum know I got a little excited what can I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nice hit just like the namhow much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18Z Rgem looks excellent for this tomorrow night now. The soundings look great when the band lifts NE. I just wish we could get midlevel lapse rates this steep for summer thunderstorms here. 3z 2/10 Nam JFK sounding 700-500 lapse rate: 8.14 C/km Total Totals Index: 55.59 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The soundings look great when the band lifts NE. I just wish we could get midlevel lapse rates this steep for summer thunderstorms here. 3z 2/10 Nam JFK sounding 700-500 lapse rate: 8.14 C/km Total Totals Index: 55.59 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable Would be great to see hear a few rumbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is MMU still in a poor spot for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 My YTD is 0.0 and average about the same.. Gotcha beat It seems almost unfathomable that you'd have 0" and I'd have 27" in the Edison area. I wonder how often your area gets less than my area or NYC (we're almost always within a few inches of Central Park, being 25 miles SW)? I would think it's rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It seems almost unfathomable that you'd have 0" and I'd have 27" in the Edison area. I wonder how often your area gets less than my area or NYC (we're almost always within a few inches of Central Park, being 25 miles SW)? I would think it's rare. My season total is 3.7". I don't know if I've ever measured less than NYC, maybe this year will be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It seems almost unfathomable that you'd have 0" and I'd have 27" in the Edison area. I wonder how often your area gets less than my area or NYC (we're almost always within a few inches of Central Park, being 25 miles SW)? I would think it's rare. If I had to guess... I would bet it's less than 5 season, where anyone from NYC points south has a higher seasonal total than most of us in the Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Now we have mt holly going 3-5 for central Jersey and Upton going an inch most places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 RGEM is way more refined in terms of precip extent than nam, it's very tightly wound and refined to a small area, Rockland south does well with IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 RGEM is way more refined in terms of precip extent than nam, it's very tightly wound and refined to a small area, Rockland south does well with IVT do you have a snow map... I would like to see where the cut off is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Precip starting to explode on western extend of that band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 do you have a snow map... I would like to see where the cut off is. i cant post the map. but your spot looks like 3" of snow.. edit: the canadian produced map actually gives you about 4" dont know if ratios are taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z Rgem is 4"-6" for the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Didn't see it posted yet, so here's the map from Mt. Holly, to go along with the WWAdvisories for 2-5" for counties basically between 195/276 in NJ/PA and 78, including Monmouth, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, in NJ and NW Bucks/NW Montco/Lehigh/Berks in PA). South of 195/276, warnings are up for 4-8" of snow. Haven't seen an update from Upton yet. Would be nice if this verified, but call me skeptical, especially after today's miss - they really shouldn't have put up advisories west of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Gfs says no coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So GFS goes from most robust to now one of the weakest. Did anyone have a RGEM total QPF/snow accum map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Gfs says no coastal Weather noob here... just had a local MET say if the coastal low went out to sea it could rob or enhance snow fall for my area (north of philly)... without looking at the complete run how does the lack of a coastal low affect accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Weather noob here... just had a local MET say if the coastal low went out to sea it could rob or enhance snow fall for my area (north of philly)... without looking at the complete run how does the lack of a coastal low affect accumulations? Flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So GFS goes from most robust to now one of the weakest. Did anyone have a RGEM total QPF/snow accum map? Gfs is also drier in philly. Battle of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The NAM and now RGEM developing a low off Jersey coast gives me some optimism. I really feel that globals will struggle with this system due to resolution issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The 18z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The NAM and now RGEM developing a low off Jersey coast gives me some optimism. I really feel that globals will struggle with this system due to resolution issues. I agree. I wouldn't rely on GFS or Euro for this ivt...look elsewhere. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I agree. I wouldn't rely on GFS or Euro for this ivt...look elsewhere. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The Euro has higher resolution and should be picking it up, but the tendency would be for the Euro to be too dry though on an IVT, even if it did pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I agree. I wouldn't rely on GFS or Euro for this ivt...look elsewhere. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk NAM (12K/4K), RGEM, GEM-LAM, RAP, HRRR, and some radar for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The Euro has higher resolution and should be picking it up, but the tendency would be for the Euro to be too dry though on an IVT, even if it did pick it up. What resolution is the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There really hasn't been a single model that has been perfect on one storm yet. I actually think the short term models have really outperformed the rest which haven't been, imo, as accurate in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 What resolution is the Euro? 4Dvar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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