bluewave Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Chris where is this ripped from ? I took it off the GFS forecast soundings. The core of where that band sets up will probably have some pretty good convective snowfall rates. We may have to wait until the nowcast to see where it really sits and dumps. This almost looks like summer EML midlevel lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NYC on south, moreso central and southern NJ look like the place to be for the IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I took it off the GFS forecast soundings. The core of where that band sets up will probably have some pretty good convective snowfall rates. We may have to wait until the nowcast to see where it really sits and dumps. This almost looks like summer EML midlevel lapse rates. gfsNE_con_lapse57_048.gif Sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NYC on south, moreso central and southern NJ look like the place to be for the IVT Come on you know its going to find a way to nail LI. it just wants to snow there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I took it off the GFS forecast soundings. The core of where that band sets up will probably have some pretty good convective snowfall rates. We may have to wait until the nowcast to see where it really sits and dumps. This almost looks like summer EML midlevel lapse rates. gfsNE_con_lapse57_048.gif That red looks like a near severe thinderstorm lapse rate. Mother nature is amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That red looks like a near severe thinderstorm lapse rate. Mother nature is amazing! So basically does that mean that is where the IVT is pointing to setting up? which would be right over the area... or am I reading it wrong... please help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So the dark reds in Eastern PA into Western NJ is a good spot to be? I thought everyone was talking about it being North and East and most of NJ would get pretty much nothing? or was that just for the part of the storm going on now? and what is the timing for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So basically does that mean that is where the IVT is pointing to setting up? which would be right over the area... or am I reading it wrong... please help! Hard to say. The gfs says its south of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 UKMET has similar idea some other models have hinted at. Initial IVT down in the MA then as the second offshore low forms it develops or redevelops it near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 UKMET has similar idea some other models have hinted at. Initial IVT down in the MA then as the second offshore low forms it develops or redevelops it near NYC Whats the UKMET look like in terms of snow amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Whats the UKMET look like in terms of snow amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 UKMET has similar idea some other models have hinted at. Initial IVT down in the MA then as the second offshore low forms it develops or redevelops it near NYC All the models now show redevelopment and take it to the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 All the models now show redevelopment and take it to the BM and there is zero chance I take it of MIller B redeveloping and striking us directly ( too far East) I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Anyone see that the models are developing a small low for tomorrow night near LI? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Snowing hard in wantagh!!! Long Island snow capital!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There's roughly a 5000 square mile radius from near Rt. 10 and points N&W that has been in a ridiculous snowhole for the last few seasons. That area was even larger but luckily the blizzard in January shaved off a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Anyone see that the models are developing a small low for tomorrow night near LI? Interesting. It's going to cause the snow to jump away from the BWI area and towards LI with a nice shaft zone between. For those of you living in NNJ, get ready to bend over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's going to cause the snow to jump away from the BWI area and towards LI with a nice shaft zone between. For those of you living in NNJ, get ready to bend over again.Yea, looks like shaft/subsidence zone northern NJ into SE NY again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's going to cause the snow to jump away from the BWI area and towards LI with a nice shaft zone between. For those of you living in NNJ, get ready to bend over again. Could be worse. You could the Hudson valley or interior new england. Most of nj is running well above average ytd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Could be worse. You could the Hudson valley or interior new england. Most of nj is running well above average ytd I'm personally running around 15" below my seasonal average and about 25" below my season total from last year. Being 15" below my average for early February isn't bad at all, but it's certainly not as good as places further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm personally running around 15" below normal and about 25" below my season total from last year.You're not running 15 below normal ytd unless you got less than a foot in the blizzard or average 60" a year. We're just past the halfway mark. Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You're not running 15 below normal ytd unless you got less than a foot in the blizzard or average 60" a year. We're just past the halfway mark. Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk we ended up with just about 12" here is Sag Harbor from the blizzard. So ytd we are showing around 18 - 20" (not including this current storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You're not running 15 below normal ytd unless you got less than a foot in the blizzard or average 60" a year. We're just past the halfway mark. Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk I had 22" in the blizzard and I average 40" a year. Out of all the other events I've managed 3" total, so you do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I had 22" in the blizzard and I average 40" a year. Out of all the other events I've managed 3" total, so you do the math.I did the math and you're not running below normal. You should be between 20-25" with 6-7 weeks of potential accumulating events leftSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I did the math and you're not running below normal. You should be between 20-25" with 6-7 weeks of potential accumulating events left Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk He meant his total seasonal avg, not YTD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So as it stands look like just another 1-3 inch event across the area for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 He meant his total seasonal avg, not YTD. Thank you, I even made a clarifying post about how I wasn't in a bad place with a third of Winter to go, it's just nowhere near as good as places further SE. Especially on Long Island which I think has seen at least 3 Warning criteria snowfalls this year if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The Euro still wants nothing to do with the IT for anyone Northeast of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The Euro still wants nothing to do with the IT for anyone Northeast of Philly. Its weak everywhere. Time to use the mesoscale models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Its weak everywhere. Time to use the mesoscale models The euro this winter is just another model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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