weatherfreeeeak Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 What? It looks great. GGEM ensembles also have the trough from SNJ to NYC.if we miss this storms impacts tomorrow and the IVT Tuesday I will NOT be a happy camper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 if we miss this storms impacts tomorrow and the IVT Tuesday I will NOT be a happy camper Tomorrow is going to be light accumulations for NYC but more towards eastern LI. The trough is a different story. Right now, it's modeled on most of the models to our south but that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z & 0z It's just a tighter gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 HRRR shifted slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 HRRR shifted slightly west can you post accumulation map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The Euro is 2" at FRG and 4" for eastern Suffolk. Anything west of there is t-1" (between EWR and FRG) with the coastal. We get some snow showers after the coastal departs which drops a t-1". The IVT remains to the south of our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 On this run, Euro develops an inverted trough but it hits the mid atlantic and SNJ. Euro shifted east with the coastal for tomorrow. Looks like maybe 1-2 for NYC tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 While I am not expecting much at least from the coastal the IVT is still the wildcard IMO. Still a tricky forecast for the NYC metro especially for the city itself and NE NJ. We are certainly going to need to nowcast both the coastal and the IVT since there is certainly some bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Bad trends tonight. It's possible we get nothing but snow showers. Very messy/screwy setup that I never liked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Bad trends tonight. It's possible we get nothing but snow showers. Very messy/screwy setup that I never liked. Possible. We can also get hit good with the trough. Onto tomorrow runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 that initial band looks really good right now,really trying to push to the coast too.let's see how far northwest can it go before it stalls out,some one is going to get clipped good on that 1st band thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Possible. We can also get hit good with the trough. Onto tomorrow runs. 6z NAM shifted a little north with the inverted trough. Central-Southern Jersey is the jackpot, but .50 almost gets up to NYC on this run. Would take only a very minor bump north to get North-Central Jersey to NYC into the good snows. We're certainly still in the game for the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks like GFS won. It would of been precip'ing by now in SNJ....and it isn't. o well. NAM 2/3 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Mt.Holly issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 5 am until 1 pm for 1-3" of snow for my area. Not sure I see that happening but like I said in an earlier post this is going to be a nowcasting event especially when we start dealing with the IVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 And 6z RGEM shows snow from the inverted trough moving up into NYC late Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx this is what mt.holly is seeing,it's incoming folks.that first band might actually stall out over us for a while for whoever is lucky to be on the western fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 kind of baffling, seeing how only 0z NAM had that scenario. And GFS is easily winning now. kind of baffling, seeing how only 0z NAM had that scenario. And GFS is easily winning now. well it's going to get interesting soon around here if that first mega band reaches n.y.c,currently it's still creeping on in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx this is what mt.holly is seeing,it's incoming folks.that first band might actually stall out over us for a while for whoever is lucky to be on the western fringe. which is the GFS. most of that band won't make it to NJ coast. maybe flurries. Nothing exciting for NJ until IVT tonight. the coastal flooding aspect is a mess....I wouldn't wanna be forecasting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 which is the GFS. most of that band won't make it to NJ coast. maybe flurries. Nothing exciting for NJ until IVT tonight. the coastal flooding aspect is a mess....I wouldn't wanna be forecasting that. i dunno about writing the coastal off,it seems like the moisture is getting pulled back west by the backside energy interacting with the departing monster coastal a.t.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 i dunno about writing the coastal off,it seems like the moisture is getting pulled back west by the backside energy interacting with the departing monster coastal a.t.m. 6z GFS is slightly in your camp on that, but I highly doubt anything more than an Inch for eastern , coastal counties of NJ only. (with the 1st storm) temps are pretty mild as well...need the heavy stuff for any accumulations. EDIT: ....actually 6z GFS is now trending towards the more snowier 0z NAM. And 6z NAM trended towards the less snowier 0z GFS. so I give up...need sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nam and Gfs look a lot better with the Norlun. That's going to be a tough forecast but given their tendency to shift north maybe having it to our south isn't a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 smells like snow,it's def chillier,the sky is orange and the winds are quite breezy??..snow is a coming and we ain't talking flurries!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 6z GFS is slightly in your camp on that, but I highly doubt anything more than an Inch for eastern , coastal counties of NJ only. (with the 1st storm) temps are pretty mild as well...need the heavy stuff for any accumulations. EDIT: ....actually 6z GFS is now trending towards the more snowier 0z NAM. And 6z NAM trended towards the less snowier 0z GFS. so I give up...need sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Drifting buoy for the win. It's in the 970's already - http://sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=41506 980.9 mb. (and that was awhile ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 9z HRRR not bad for Suffolk; with the a max of 6 inches + from around just east of Port Jeff out to about Upton; pretty predictable as the region will have the benefits of the widest part of the Sound and a stiff & persistent NE fetch. 6z RGEM was bad with part 1, however...just a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 10z HRRR had 6 -8 inches (over the 15 hours subsequent to the initialization) for eastern Long Island; but just a dusting west of the Hudson River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 ^ sharp cutoff line for sure. almost a straight line. wouldn't be surprised all advisories in NJ are dropped soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I really dont think Mt.Holly should have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for 1-3" for my area. I just dont see that happening by 1 pm when the advisory expires. ^ sharp cutoff line for sure. almost a straight line. wouldn't be surprised all advisories in NJ are dropped soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Winter storm watches in effect for South NJ and Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Interesting....upton upped totals in Nassau from 2-4 to 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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