Franklin0529 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 whats everyone thoughts on coastal monmouth county? low level warning criteria or just advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 whats everyone thoughts on coastal monmouth county? low level warning criteria or just advisory? Special weather statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think the WWA was a bit too jump the gun, the biggest difference I see since the 18z models is that they have lost that interaction with the approaching subtle shortwave m from the west so as a result now pretty much all you get is a period of snow for maybe 10-15Z and then you're done we really lost that interaction to get us that 15 to say 00Z extra snow and with that I don't see how we get 3 to 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 00z Nam looks similar to 18z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I can't make heads or tails out of its movement. It appears that the front half of the storm is getting pulled due east, while the other part is tracking north, with rotation that seems to be pulling it inland. I don't remember ever seeing this before.Yeah, interesting as you say, thicker cloud deck engulfing LI and southern New England, while the outermost fringe of clouds is close to Plattsburgh NY. What this all means going forward, I have no idea!-Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 00z Nam looks similar to 18z Nam And it's still not correct with the western extent. I'll stick with my call that eastern NJ counties will need 'atleast' WWA's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That would be interesting if they did put up something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 And it's still not correct with the western extent. I'll stick with my call that eastern NJ counties will need 'atleast' WWA's.I really find your nowcasting very interesting, thank you for your informative posts. I'm interested to know, what's your call for NYC/LI area?-Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Where the IVT on the nam?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hrrr looks too be west and north. At hour 9 for example, lower pressures and further norther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 1-3" West of the Nassau/Queens line and that might be generous West of the city. LI should easily see 2-4" with amounts increasing to 6"+ for Suffolk. Probably very similar to Friday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hrrr looks too be west and north. At hour 9 for example, lower pressures and further northerSad to say you're in a great spot for this one. Out here it's DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 1-3" West of the Nassau/Queens line and that might be generous West of the city. LI should easily see 2-4" with amounts increasing to 6"+ for Suffolk. Probably very similar to Friday's event. Is that just the coastal or for both the coastal and ivt? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is that just the coastal or for both the coastal and ivt? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Just tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is that just the coastal or for both the coastal and ivt? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Nothing set in stone yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nam is in fact west on this run up to a certain point.. then it's anyone's guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Norluns are tricky. Models are going to show different solutions with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Norluns are tricky. Models are going to show different solutions with it Where does the nam show it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 IVT way south of us.Worst case scenario we got a couple of inches from each "storm", dreams of a surprise fading IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 IVT way south of us. Worst case scenario we got a couple of inches from each "storm", dreams of a surprise fading IMHO No one knows where the IVT will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 IVT way south of us. Worst case scenario we got a couple of inches from each "storm", dreams of a surprise fading IMHO Congrats Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 No one knows where the IVT will set up.I know of course but we are inching closer and NAM has been hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That low is really bombing out right now. I wish it was coming up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I know of course but we are inching closer and NAM has been hot Plenty of time.norluns can trend north at the last second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 you guys need to not focus directly on the low pressure, but more importantly the precipitation shield. precip is much further west now than expected. Eastern NJ is in the game. The system is also 3MB's stronger than currently projected, which could counter any slight eastward movement you guys may be seeing. The movement is Easterly now, as forecasted. The precip shield can only grow so far to the west. It's not going to keep expanding past a certain point and the east movement will begin to take it with it. This is obvious now if you look at the loops out of KAKQ and KMHX. The precip shield is moving eastward back towards the coast as the low moves East and wraps up. The central pressure is not written in stone with model depiction and that 3mb difference is likely having no impact on countering the eastward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Intense lightning / hail...almost never seen from a winter storm - The Blizzard last weak had severe thunderstorms in the Carolinas. Lightening/thunderstorms are in fact really common on the rain/warm side of winter storms like this. It's a product of the dynamics, location and strength of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The movement is Easterly now, as forecasted. It's actually north-easterly now. And with the lightning, it was in regards to the intensity of the lightning...not just lightning in general. The precip shield is moving eastward back towards the coast as the low moves East and wraps up. It's shifting back westward on the northern extent...as the low continues it's north-easterly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Gfs it's north in early runs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looking at different modes and more closely, right off the bat,it's north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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