2/9-2/10 Inverted Trough/Mini-Coastal Storm

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

just to reiterate again, how this storm is behaving differently...and how no model is accurately predicting it.

 

Widespread doppler rain estimate of over 7 inches in north carolina...and it's still coming down.

 

No model had this.  The most the NAM had was 3 to 4 inches...  GFS / Euro = less. 

 

[weatherfreeeeak]

How's the 18z rgem?

[patrick05]

look at the sexy center wrapping beautifully!

 

[F5TornadoF5]

How's the 18z rgem?

Looks further s/e than 12z by a tad.

[The Plowsman]

If anyone could post an outlook for us CNJ to our coast that'd be much appreciated!

[RU848789]

Still haven't seen Mt. Holly update maps or issue any advisories, but I did just notice their zone forecasts are calling for 2-4" to 3-5" for most SE PA and NJ counties for Monday night/Tuesday.  Showed a few below.  Wonder if advisories will come now or after they see the 0Z models tonight.  

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=ZFP&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

 

NJZ010-080900-
SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SOMERVILLE
330 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

NJZ012-080900-
MIDDLESEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEW BRUNSWICK
330 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
NJZ015-080900-
MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TRENTON
330 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

 

Edit: and a minute later, here's the new map....

 

[Bobby]

I like 8 on the east end for wave 1.

This will be Suffolk County's 3rd winter storm warning in the last 15 days.

I think 4 to 6 could fall from the Meadowbrook Pkwy east.

P that's for the system tonight correct? I'm thinking 10-12" for central and eastern Suffolk by Wednesday night total for all systems.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

The longest coastal flooding discussion i've ever seen from them,  (mt holly)  But well warranted, since it's a strange, extended setup.

 

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE*** HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, AS BRIEF RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS MOVES OVERHEAD. SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK, TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY. FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE THINK THE NAM BACKS THE WINDS TOO MUCH /MORE NORTHERLY/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE, POSSIBLY DUE TO AN ISALLOBARIC EFFECT WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM, AND IT WAS DEEMED AN OUTLIER. WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTHEAST WINDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE GUSTS JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A GREATER COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, WHICH ALSO INCLUDES DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS. FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

 

[Stormlover74]

Still haven't seen Mt. Holly update maps or issue any advisories, but I did just notice their zone forecasts are calling for 2-4" to 3-5" for most SE PA and NJ counties for Monday night/Tuesday. Showed a few below. Wonder if advisories will come now or after they see the 0Z models tonight

Most of that is tomorrow night on so they probably won't issue advisories yet

[Allsnow]

GFS is real impressive with the IVT at 15z tuesday from acy-phl-se PA

[RU848789]

Most of that is tomorrow night on so they probably won't issue advisories yet

 

Quite possible, as I noted in my original post - they might want to confirm with the 0Z models tonight.  Having said that though, I do think they've done a poor job of coordinating.  Hard to believe the first storm brings 2-4" and advisories on Monday to NYC, including SI, and no similar advisories for at least coastal Monmouth and Ocean, which are SE of SI.  

[Stormlover74]

Quite possible, as I noted in my original post - they might want to confirm with the 0Z models tonight. Having said that though, I do think they've done a poor job of coordinating. Hard to believe the first storm brings 2-4" and advisories on Monday to NYC, including SI, and no similar advisories for at least coastal Monmouth and Ocean, which are SE of SI.

They are going with snow likely there but temps too warm for much accumulation

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

[Allsnow]

18z has the IVT into metro area by 00z WED. central and southern nj really get hit hard 

[snow1]

18z has the IVT into metro area by 00z WED. central and southern nj really get hit hard

How we looking allsnow??

[Allsnow]

lol PHL is 12+ for tuesday on sv maps 

 

 

nyc metro is 3-5

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

In the northern part of the Low right now

 

[RU848789]

They are going with snow likely there but temps too warm for much accumulation

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

 

Could be, although at least northern coastal Monmouth isn't very far from SI, so wouldn't expect temps to be that much warmer.  All I can say is when you look at the map, SI being under an advisory and coastal Monmouth or Hudson not being under one just looks a little odd.  

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Could be, although at least northern coastal Monmouth isn't very far from SI, so wouldn't expect temps to be that much warmer. All I can say is when you look at the map, SI being under an advisory and coastal Monmouth or Hudson not being under one just looks a little odd.

Yeah it definitely does

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

[allgame830]

lol PHL is 12+ for tuesday on sv maps

nyc metro is 3-5

And this is just for the IVT?

[weatherfreeeeak]

lol PHL is 12+ for tuesday on sv maps

nyc metro is 3-5

nam has it a little further north, let's hope for that

[Allsnow]

And this is just for the IVT?

 

yes. most if not all out side LI 

[RU848789]

Quite possible, as I noted in my original post - they might want to confirm with the 0Z models tonight.  Having said that though, I do think they've done a poor job of coordinating.  Hard to believe the first storm brings 2-4" and advisories on Monday to NYC, including SI, and no similar advisories for at least coastal Monmouth and Ocean, which are SE of SI.  

 

 

They are going with snow likely there but temps too warm for much accumulation

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

 

Looks like you're right on Mt. Holly's reasoning, at least.  Still not clear why Hudson wouldn't be, but I guess they have to draw a line somewhere.  Just looks odd.  

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE THE

POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF DELAWARE

AND NEW JERSEY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES

WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO

MONDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND

SLIGHTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW

LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW THE QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS HOW

FAR WEST. BASED ON RECENT MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND COLLABORATION, WE

EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN RIGHT NEAR THE

COAST AND OFFSHORE, THEN EXTEND TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE NAM AND

SREF ARE CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE HIGH WITH THEIR AMOUNTS, WHILE A

BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GIVE A BETTER EXPECTATION OF AMOUNTS.

ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE HOW MUCH WOULD ACCUMULATE BASED ON

TEMPERATURES, AS TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE

FREEZING. SO FOR NOW WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS

FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES AND EASTERN

MIDDLESEX. SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME

AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR FUTURE GUIDANCE AND SEE IF A SHORT

FUSED ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Jason215]

yes. most if not all out side LI

So LI gets the shaft regarding IVT? Not complaining at all (LI is playing with house money), I just want to understand the prospects out here.

Thanks,

Jason

[Allsnow]

So LI gets the shaft regarding IVT? Not complaining at all (LI is playing with house money), I just want to understand the prospects out here.

Thanks,

Jason

 

You get more from the costal on LI then the IVT. But that being said its still 1-3/2-4 for IVT 

[SnowGoose69]

So LI gets the shaft regarding IVT? Not complaining at all (LI is playing with house money), I just want to understand the prospects out here.

Thanks,

Jason

Verbatim on many models right now they do but I don't buy it. This is a setup that I think favors areas more east, guidance currently shows places in WRN NJ and Ern PA seeing decent snows from the trof but a west-east IVT like this is likely to see a big drop off in snows as you get further inland with coastal areas seeing more and hence eastern LI I think has the best chance. This is a somewhat similar setup to 2/25/90 which mostly hit Suffolk County. I think in many people west of NYC won't do as well as many models currently show

[psv88]

So LI gets the shaft regarding IVT? Not complaining at all (LI is playing with house money), I just want to understand the prospects out here.

Thanks,

Jason

IVT are nearly impossible to predict. Anywhere from s.jersey to sne is in the game.

[SnowGoose69]

IVT are nearly impossible to predict. Anywhere from s.jersey to sne is in the game.

SNE I think is a long shot right now, the dynamics and setup start to break down a bit when the trof and associated offshore low get up there. I think the islands and maybe coastal RI could do okay but Boston needs a ton of help right now for this to work out

[PB GFI]

P that's for the system tonight correct? I'm thinking 10-12" for central and eastern Suffolk by Wednesday night total for all systems.

I like the IVT on the UKMET it has been very good on the EC over the last 2 weeks.

Keep in mind this is going to be a very cold mid level IVT

Ratios and are probably 12 to 1 with the 850s - 10.

The next 10 days will be a great period. There will be 2 possible snows on the front end followed by a late week/weekend brutal cold period.

Finally a major day 9 or 10 snowstorm is possible to finish up the period

Enjoy this period there's lots of potential. We will need a few breaks to have this fall into place but the possibility is there

[psv88]

SNE I think is a long shot right now, the dynamics and setup start to break down a bit when the trof and associated offshore low get up there. I think the islands and maybe coastal RI could do okay but Boston needs a ton of help right now for this to work out

Agree

[Jason215]

Thank so much to all for your responses! Looks like a couple of snowy days here with a good shot at 5-10" for around here between now and Wednesday morning. I will take it and run. We are quickly forgetting about the ratter December..

-Jason