Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z NAM. already more westward at 6 hours. as expected. Guys, it's still not even as West as what's currently going on. So 0z will trend more westward as well. Reasoning? Look at south-east Virginia. It's already wrong with it's precip extent. (should be further west) It's stronger than is currently modeled as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Now this is an interesting look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyDop Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NWS Boston using the "B" on Twitter for the Cape and Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Weird. And for a fish storm too. I guess fish live in suffolk county. Ill take it. Amazing how far west everything has trended this winter from hr 60 and in. Blizzard for coastal Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18 hr NAM. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020718&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Not much change from the Nam. It's actually less impressive than 12z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 not a bad look this model has trended northwest in the past 3 runs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah, H5 heights are trending a bit higher in front of this thing according to the Nam. Wouldn't be surprised to see another tick west on later guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah, H5 heights are trending a bit higher in front of this thing according to the Nam. Wouldn't be surprised to see another tick west on later guidance. Looking good for you. You are a lock for 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Not much change from the Nam. It's actually less impressive than 12z was. Precip is more expansive western shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nam a good 1-3" for nj/Nyc from coastal alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking good for you. You are a lock for 6+ Cautiously optimistic here. If I can squeeze 6" out of this one, I'm at my seasonal avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Temperatures are marginal at best and I don't see more than light snow in the city that's unlikely to accumulate much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 has there ever been a storm where ALL the models were really off/wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Western shield of precip has expanded westward on each run for 18Z Monday since the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 has there ever been a storm where ALL the models were really off/wrong The blizzard? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nams 1-3 for NYC up to HV as well with INITAL wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 has there ever been a storm where ALL the models were really off/wrong Every storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is the first time I remember Staten Island being under an advisory and I live a few miles west of there and no advisory - Good luck Upton- glad you can forecast with such precision ........... Models show a sharp cutoff. Its not a bad call imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Cautiously optimistic here. If I can squeeze 6" out of this one, I'm at my seasonal avg. You will "squeeze " out more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The storm is going to move ENE this evening as it expands and strengthens. We may get brushed by the outermost bands late tonight but the brunt will be well east. 1-3" is the best case scenario with the coastal for the metro with more in C/E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is the first time I remember Staten Island being under an advisory and I live a few miles west of there and no advisory - Good luck Upton- glad you can forecast with such precision ........... Every storm has a dividing line somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Models show a sharp cutoff. Its not a bad call imo only problem is the models aren't that accurate to begin with.............fine we will see how this works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is the first time I remember Staten Island being under an advisory and I live a few miles west of there and no advisory - Good luck Upton- glad you can forecast with such precision ........... They don't care where you live. They have to define a border somewhere. Most reasonable weather watchers understand that it's not that cut and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 only problem is the models aren't that accurate to begin with.............fine we will see how this works out Dont disagree. HRRR and RAP were the best for past two storms. Particularly the past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 They don't care where you live. They have to define a border somewhere. Most reasonable weather watchers understand that it's not that cut and dry. Plus upton doesn't forecast for middlesex county and mt holly hasn't updated yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The really strange part is mt holly has 40% pops for monmouth while Upton has 70% for SI. That's almost impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I was talking about Eastern Union County which they do forecast for which is within a stone throws distance of SI.. Nam has .25 from NYC or just east down to SI into sandy hook. Ewr .10+. I can most def see you getting 1-2 and SI getting 3-4. I'm right by fords a stones throw from the outer bridge. Will be interesting to see what nws does here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The really strange part is mt holly has 40% pops for monmouth while Upton has 70% for SI. That's almost impossible How is that impossibe? Have you not been witnessing the insane cutoffs up here this year lol.. Literally 5-10 miles has been the difference of 2" of snow for the season to 20" for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 How is that impossibe? Have you not been witnessing the insane cutoffs up here this year lol.. Literally 5-10 miles has been the difference of 2" of snow for the season to 20" for the seasonMonmouth is SE of SISent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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