UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That map is 10-15mm for everyone or .4"-.6" of precip. A solid 4"-6". Ratios are going to be quit good, especially into the second wave, I would not be surprised to see 15:1+ ratios, 4-6 LE, could easily be 4-8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Very, very likely the norlun trough does not setup where the GGEM has it. Globals are horrible with the placement of inverted troughs. The high res models are the ones to use and even they have trouble placing them. Norluns almost always hit New England and not us It s a much different set-up from your typical Norlun, it's a very vast IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is more of a widespread IVT. Not a fickle Norlun that only hits a small area. See March 2013 for a classic example. Yeah. Last years norlun was only 50 to 100 miles wide if I recall correctly. This one is huge as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 accumulating precip now falling further west than 12z NAM's call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like another LI jackpot with lighter snows west of there. IVT is hard to pin down this early but i like the position of the metro area for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 accumulating precip now falling further west than 12z NAM's call so is all of nj back in the game now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Interesting to look at the NWS snowfall maps from Mt. Holly, as they show the forecast max to be in SE PA, but they snow the maximum potential max near/along the NJ coast. I assume that's because the expected amounts mostly reflect snow from the 2nd system/inverted trough, while the max amounts reflect the chance that the coastal comes closer and hits the NJ coast harder. Of course, this will all change, but interesting to look at as one doesn't often see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 so is all of nj back in the game now? I'd say the eastern half = for sure. they'll be waking up to a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm still not totally sold on the idea that there is no miller b redevelopment in the tues/wed timeframe. We're going to need this storm to start moving away before we can resolve that whole scenario IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 accumulating precip now falling further west than 12z NAM's call I want to believe. I need more model support though...HRR look more promising. There does seem to be a NW trend regardless...especially mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'd say the eastern half = for sure. they'll be waking up to a surprise. how bout ne njlike, say, oh idk, bergen county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Very, very likely the norlun trough does not setup where the GGEM has it. Globals are horrible with the placement of inverted troughs. The high res models are the ones to use and even they have trouble placing them. Norluns almost always hit New England and not us Why would that be? I don't think there's any science behind that statement. A Norlurn trough has no geographical preference that I am aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur transfer really starting to shape up now,look at our current low and the connection all the way to the great lakes.the coastal is still on the coast starting to ride up now as the blocking and dry air start to lift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GGEM is the first of the "globals" to say the NAM is once again correct... 6-12" with ratios taken into account, area wide... Even the LHV get in on low end warning/ high end advisory This is not what is being reported in the media: that looks like a decent snow even for a large part of NJ, lower end but still more than the snow showers being talked about on the radio outlets. Can't have a foot plus for every storm, and most of ours are 3-6 events. Now will this be the correct result? Anyone? Or am I reading this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Why would that be? I don't think there's any science behind that statement. A Norlurn trough has no geographically preference that I am aware of. Past experience with norluns suggest they are difficult to predict. The one last year was squirrely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Very, very likely the norlun trough does not setup where the GGEM has it. Globals are horrible with the placement of inverted troughs. The high res models are the ones to use and even they have trouble placing them. Norluns almost always hit New England and not usBut not every case fits that grouping. This looks more widespread than a typical norlun setup. There's a lot of energy in that trough. I think we get a moderate hit. The coastal is definitely more for SNE and LI (east end in particular). The models aren't going to be so wrong that it ends up 150-200 miles further west this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 But not every case fits that grouping. This looks more widespread than a typical norlun setup. There's a lot of energy in that trough. I think we get a moderate hit. What do you think Ski, 3-6 possible for us? Kid goes to Rutgers and they do not cancel for anything. He just can't drive in it. Is this entire setup typical of anything? Is this whole winter even typical so far? Sounds like we cannot give up on this out our way, not yet at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wow just wow, 106.1 wbli just had forecast on radio saying snow showers tomorrow... Talk about Miss informing... Another tough call for schools businesses this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is a coastal scrape with a low probably of an IVT after the storm passes. It's not impossible for LI to see some snow with the coastal but it shouldn't be anything more than a few inches. IVT's do favor New England but it's certainly possible for many in our subforum to get in on the action this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 alarm bells? NAM forecasted 1008mb (or slightly higher) at this buoy location for 18z today. already down to 1001.6. We could already be around 990 and not even know it. can we haz hurricane hunter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is a coastal scrape with a low probably of an IVT after the storm passes. It's not impossible for LI to see some snow with the coastal but it shouldn't be anything more than a few inches. IVT's do favor New England but it's certainly possible for many in our subforum to get in on the action this time around. Too bearish on the coastal methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is a coastal scrape with a low probably of an IVT after the storm passes. It's not impossible for LI to see some snow with the coastal but it shouldn't be anything more than a few inches. IVT's do favor New England but it's certainly possible for many in our subforum to get in on the action this time around. yeah i would like to agree with you but there are just too many moving pieces on the table to NOT get anything substantial from this setup,plus our scraper might just want to pay us a visit tomm morn according to the new short range models and obvious trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Euro trended west with the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Euro trended west with the coastal whats new there snow,preaching to the choir on that development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Euro trended west with the coastalhow far west? Any snows in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Euro trended west with the coastal Snow distribution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Snow distribution? NYC is 1"-3". LI is 3"-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NYC is 1"-3". LI is 3"-6". I see a few inches at hour 36 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Forecasts are made on more than just highest model qpf...lots of mets expect marginal temps to limit accumulating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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