Yanksfan Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 RGEM is a good hit for eastern LI and a crush job for Coastal SNE. NYC just gets very light snow. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Did it come west from its prior run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html undeniable northern push now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Did it come west from its prior run? Slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 this should be a rare instance where the NWS doesn't wait for further model runs....even for NJ. (flame me if i'm wrong) The westward shift is already happening and already further west than 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at the satellite another monster, just looks a little too Far East this time for most outside of LI/SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at the satellite another monster, just looks a little too Far East this time for most outside of LI/SNE http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecvs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 these folks (that far west) had no idea they'd be reporting 'sleet' right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I said this last night, every other model run had been west/east on the nam.. Isaid it would be west today, along with other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 unmentioned in all of this is the fact that the northern stream system has pretty much slowed to a crawl,allowing this to ride north from it's current position.the hrrr has the coastal low actually trying to pinwheel back towards the coast in it's long range as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Precip moving due north on radar, at least to my eyes. How long before it heads east is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Gfs further north by 30+ miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Precip moving due north on radar, at least to my eyes. How long before it heads east is the question. Precip moving due north on radar, at least to my eyes. How long before it heads east is the question. for the next few hours there is nothing to really stop it from moving north/ne instead of ene..the kicker has pretty much stalled it's forward movement and interaction is already happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 RGEM is a good hit for eastern LI and a crush job for Coastal SNE. NYC just gets very light snow. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html looks to me like anyone outside of coastal NJ is nada for this one. ANd the coastal is only light. Would need to shift a lot west for us to get in the game but hey SNE looks like they get a nice event. Can't get em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Huge shift of precip field on gfs. Maybe 75-100 miles. Looks like a cave to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS is already way wrong with what's currently going on....even at 12 hours. (precip shield) Don't even bother watching rest of run. NAM is closest to what's curently going on...and isn't even West enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 this should be a rare instance where the NWS doesn't wait for further model runs....even for NJ. (flame me if i'm wrong) The westward shift is already happening and already further west than 12z NAM. So you're suggesting what exactly? Ignore models, look at radar and issue advisories for NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS is already way wrong with what's currently going on....even at 12 hours. (precip shield) Don't even bother watching rest of run. NAM is closest to what's curently going on...and isn't even West enough yet. none of the models cept king nam have a clue here,anyone from the city east is in game for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 none of the models cept king nam have a clue here,anyone from the city east is in game for a surprise. thank you... probably further west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm almost sold on eastern 1/3rd of LI getting 5+. Based on RGem/nam and gfs expansion of precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 none of the models cept king nam have a clue here,anyone from the city east is in game for a surprise. Not Staten Island from what I can see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Thanks but you still haven't said what the nws should do If it was up to me, yes. Most of long island will easily see 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Messiah94 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Not for nothing and maybe Im wrong but if you roll back hour 24 to the past several runs there is a definite trend NW. Not just on GFS but NAM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 wow the latest hrrr has us in the moderate snow with a northwest precip expansion right over the whole area,also the coastal is tracking back to the coast by hour 24,we might be on the verge of a major coup.a rare event in itself for a low to come back to the coast and a norlun still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I would go 1"-3" for EWR to NYC. 3"-6" Nassau and Suffolk + CT east of BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 For NYC : (comparing runs old to new) SREFs : 4"+ last run to under 3" this run NAM : 3-4", 2-3", 1-2", 2-3" GFS : 6-8", 3-4", 5-7", 2-3", 2-3" All signs seem to point toward a 2-4" snow event; more for SNJ to parts of LI and much more in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The mesos may have a slight advantage over globals in that they can pick up the convective aspect of the storm development better. Thus, they may be noting a resultant higher height field from latent heat release. This sort of happened in the blizzard as the mesos edged north into southern New England before the globals. Though, of course, one must consider that they may overdo it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 For NYC : (comparing runs old to new) SREFs : 4"+ last run to under 3" this run NAM : 3-4", 2-3", 1-2", 2-3" GFS : 6-8", 3-4", 5-7", 2-3", 2-3" All signs seem to point toward a 2-4" snow event; more for SNJ to parts of LI and much more in SNE I assume you mean from the norlun not tomorrow's coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM is 3/3 this year. (tomorrow included) funny too how it's warmer here now, than it is in south carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I assume you mean from the norlun not tomorrow's coastal Yeah.....will probably be mood flakes more than anything. Late week into the weekend looks bitterly cold, so that should be fun to track. Maybe we can keep some snow on the ground for a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 General public is already looking for answers. To say this is a "Nowcasting" event is a bit early. Why would a blend of GFS /NAM not be a better solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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