MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nam is coming in northwest of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z nam looks a good amount nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nam is coming in northwest of 6z.Yep was just about to post this. A decent shift too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's certainly close enough to be interesting. I mean, it wouldn't take much of a shift to get something appreciable out here for tomorrow. It wouldn't be too far fetched to have the heights underestimated out in front of this, which could bump it a bit closer. Going to have to keep an eye on this today. Not sure how well this model has been doing, but check out the 06z Frenchie. This is through Mon afternoon. 6zFrench.gif NAM . THERE YOU GUY MY MAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 i expected this nw shift.i mentioned that earlier when the current low is right off hatteras a.t.m,looking like it's coming up the coast just a bit closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wow, this run is much better for the area especially eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Would be warning snowfall for eastern half of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Would be warning snowfall for eastern half of LI. YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 New nam = really close....another 50 miles and were good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 We'll have to see what the rest of the 12z suite shows, but based off of the 12z NAM, I would issue an advisory for Queens and Nassau for 3-5" and a warning for Suffolk for 6-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur already interacting albeit weak over us already,also look at our coastal. it's north and west of most models progs,right off the nc/va border just about.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm sorry I did not post on this earlier. First do not look for the global models to catch the 1st wave here . Wave 1 may not escape , here's why . The mesoscale models are closing the N branch off almost 12 hours earlier than any of the globals. So the NAM RGEM and the SREFS at 500 show the earlier NEG tilt earlier out of the N branch This N energy which ultimately become your IVT influences the backside of the 1st wave and it will in essence tug the low closer to the coast. The globals will be the last too it because they may not be seeing the N branch correctly You have a large deep Miller A heading off the GA coast to E of the BM is a pos enso year. This SW should follow the warm SST and track closer to the coast. As the system gets to our latitude it produces a large deformation band. Look at the NAM VV you can see it expand W over LI into NYC and down the NJ shore. The models will continue to correct W and if this analysis is correct the NAM.and RGEM will lead the way. The NAM and it`s high res looks good here . This could be Long Islands 3rd Warning event inside 2 weeks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like 2-3 for NYC with more to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like 50 mile jump or so on 4K compared to 6z to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 One more jump like that and most of the area sees advisory criteria snow. Will be interesting to see what RGem and rest of models depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like 50 mile jump or so on 4K compared to 6z to the NW Hi res is also northwest and looks similiar to the op nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah, definitely going to have to monitor this throughout the day. Here's a Nam snowmap, Kuchera method, not 10:1. This is by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Current location of broad low pressure is now 31.6N 74.8W @1006mb http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/d/index.shtml?station=N021 Tidal flood info for Sandy Hook above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NYC under the inverted trough at hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Would be warning snowfall for eastern half of LI. okx has got to be pondering WSW's at this point. No need to wait longer than needed. as Bx mentioned, current obs confirm the low's current position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 okx has got to be pondering WSW's at this point. No need to wait longer than needed. as Bx mentioned, current obs confirm the low's current position. Taking all guidance into consideration, the minimum should be a strongly worded advisory for locations east of NYC. Warnings for Suffolk should be seriously considered as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Trough still going for NYC at hour 63. Snowmap is 4-6 for NYC and more to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 my inner gut tells me this comes closer another 30+ miles n/west..the trend inside 48 hours has been west,west,west!,almost unnoticed in all this is the blocking moving out the way as we speak and interaction already starting..the cloud deck is moving north and even nw on satellite loops.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Heh, 4km Nam is even a bit better for Suffolk. Another bump or two west, and lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 my inner gut tells me this comes closer another 30+ miles n/west..the trend inside 48 hours has been west,west,west!..lol.. Any chance your gut has a 150 mile shift west in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z Nam for both storms including the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Any chance your gut has a 150 mile shift west in it? that's almost impossible to fathom at this time.small steps will get us there bud..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 RGEM is a good hit for eastern LI and a crush job for Coastal SNE. NYC just gets very light snow. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 my inner gut tells me this comes closer another 30+ miles n/west..the trend inside 48 hours has been west,west,west!..lol.. maybe more. NAM doesn't even have precip projected in this area (box) through 4pm today. Yet on radar, it's already nosing in. Would be hard to completely sideswipe it now. And just to show how clueless GFS is. It's last run doesn't even have precip anywhere CLOSE to what's currently going on. nowcasting is everything now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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