nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm sorry I did not post on this earlier. First do not look for the global models to catch the 1st wave here . Wave 1 may not escape , here's why . The mesoscale models are closing the N branch off almost 12 hours earlier than any of the globals. So the NAM RGEM and the SREFS at 500 show the earlier NEG tilt earlier out of the N branch This N energy which ultimately become your IVT influences the backside of the 1st wave and it will in essence tug the low closer to the coast. The globals will be the last too it because they may not be seeing the N branch correctly You have a large deep Miller A heading off the GA coast to E of the BM is a pos enso year. This SW should follow the warm SST and track closer to the coast. As the system gets to our latitude it produces a large deformation band. Look at the NAM VV you can see it expand W over LI into NYC and down the NJ shore. The models will continue to correct W and if this analysis is correct the NAM.and RGEM will lead the way. This analysis actually is similar to a captain was saying in their discussion this analysis actually is similar to what Upton with saying in there discussion and makes quite a bit of sense. Let's see what zero Z says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 EPS is slightly west as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Gefs 18z is west but not a huge bunch.... Ensembles also look a little west... However, they both show a pretty big shift west at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What exactly is wrf models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Unless I'm wrong, 18z navgem west quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Shift everything west 100 miles. That's your track. Trend (of the season) is your friend. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Unless I'm wrong, 18z navgem west quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Touch west with the precip on sref. Long island is over 1 inch of qpf. Nyc is .50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 dude. LI has never been out of the game. Us folks are eyeing the upper level lows and possible norlun event. Keep it real please. I know. They will just get more. I don't think the city is out of the game. I think 5" in the city over a 48 HR period is very doable Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Unless I'm wrong, 18z navgem west quite a bit Shifted west each of the last three runs...especially last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 still can't believe NAM has this dropping nearly 30 MB's in a 24 hour period. 18z to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 still can't believe NAM has this dropping nearly 30 MB's in a 24 hour period. 18z to 18z.bombogenesis at its finest.Hey does anyone have an image of the sref from the previous run n the latest run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Don't be so concerned about qpf on the models. As Bernie Rayno always says "look at the 500mb maps" The highest intensity flow on those maps were just about exactly above where the heaviest snow fell yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Don't be so concerned about qpf on the models. As Bernie Rayno always says "look at the 500mb maps" The highest intensity flow on those maps were just about exactly above where the heaviest snow fell yesterday. This. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 9 inches on the sref mean for islip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 9 inches on the sref mean for islipAny idea further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 a pretty decent shift west at 12 hours. (again) 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 For the past several storms, they would show up long range, be a big storm few days of the event,then they would go east only to then suddenly start trending west up to event.. At least that seems to be the tend this year if I'm not mistaken. With short term models coming out on top,compared to usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 this is gonna look good again. It's slightly slower (more SW) at 15 hours....and the high just to the north is slightly stronger. precip shield is also further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 alright. 0 z nam is goingl ive. I am interested in norlun signature after the fish storm. Let's do this weather fans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Keep up PBP on NAM guys plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nams a pretty decent shift west again through 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nams a pretty decent shift west again through 21 still well off the SC coast at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Not nearly as amped as 18z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 One says west, one says not amped, the other says south, which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just noticed why GFS is so fish-happy. Same exact position at 24 hours as GFS...but the canadian High is 3 or 4 MB's stronger on the NAM...then it is on GFS (at 30hours / 18z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 hr 27 low looks to be moving due east off SC coast. Not what you want to see for a coastal. Watch the norlun hr 30-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 One says west, one says not amped, the other says south, which is it? All 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 One says west, one says not amped, the other says south, which is it? Huh? West and not amped have nothing to do with each other.. It's slightly west, of 18z but not as strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 One says west, one says not amped, the other says south, which is it?Definitely not as amped (at 24 hours at least). At this point in the run it is south, west, AND not as amped lol. The precip shield looks nothing like the last several runs. However, that's not all that matters. Would be awesome to get hit by this storm, but I doubt that is happening this time. What happens after this, though, could be pretty exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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