UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'd really rather this thing be much weaker and OTS then what's currently being depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Its out to sea again. barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Here's the deal guys, we either want a direct hit from the first wave ( which seems unlikely) or for the first wave to go OTS (way OTS, and fast) allowing the ULL to deepen... An in-between "close" but no cigar track screws us for both systems IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nyc gets in on the action on nam from coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Here's the deal guys, we either want a direct hit from the first wave ( which seems unlikely) or for the first wave to go OTS (way OTS, and fast) allowing the ULL to deepen... An in-between "close" but no cigar track screws us for both systems IMO Agreed, but this 6 to 7 MB deeper stuff on an off-run still leaves the door open for more craziness. I was looking closely at the HIghs in canada...but still status-quo from 12z. Several more runs to go...lets see if GFS at-least 'trends'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nyc gets in on the action on nam from coastal Most of the city/Long Island and parts of LHV see 1-3" from the coastal.. Not a bad look especially if we can get hat IVT to setup further north and dump for 24 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Interesting solution, almost merges the coastal and the eventual inv trough/Miller b,NE NJ/NYC see accumulate snows from first storm on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Hi res nam is lovely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The reason for the expansive precip shield is the nam forms 3 separate Lows, our initial wave, the ULL over the lakes, and another over North Carolina out to the Delmarva, I'm actually pretty interested where this goes now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The reason for the expansive precip shield is the nam forms 3 desperate Lows, our initial wave, the ULL over the lakes, and another off the Delmarva, I'm actually pretty interested where this goes now More of a wrap-around is able to form as well from the 1st storm since its so much stronger on this run. So it's not so much of a bad thing, when you've got Secondaries all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Post it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam is 3-6" area wide by 9z Tuedsay and it's still snowing, 3" all the way up to Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The reason for the expansive precip shield is the nam forms 3 separate Lows, our initial wave, the ULL over the lakes, and another over North Carolina out to the Delmarva, I'm actually pretty interested where this goes now Wow! That was close to a phase. If the northern vort was just a bit quicker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Long Island gets crushed again 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 pop Winter Storm Watches for long island? hmm. all-in-all nice to see folks posting seriously about the NAM for once.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam sits a 994 Low right over the Hudson valley, with no precip... I don't buy that, if nams correct there will not be dry slots with all those energy players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 IVT Tuesday for nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 4K NAM (as compared to 12K) depicts a low with a more northerly track after hour 39. 4K NAM stays closer to the coast...not a huge difference, but it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 4K nam says eastern Long Island gets a foot + lol... I really hate u guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Snow for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 IVT Tuesday for nj I would never guarantee anything in weather, but I'm 99.999% sure hat IVT will be well north of where it's being modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I would never guarantee anything in weather, but I'm 99.999% sure hat IVT will be well north of where it's being modeled I would doubt that - NJ seems to get IVTs all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Really good sign of another possible outcome on the NAM... I would love to have either the GFS or EURO on board, but my trust in the nam has grown Significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 We're now inside that magical 48 hour window of opportunity where a lot of our storms trended back to the west. Its put up or shut up time for the models. Very eager to see the next RGEM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18 Z 4K NAM places low about 50 miles closer to the coast than 12Z 4K NAM throughout much of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I would doubt that - NJ seems to get IVTs all the time. I'm basing my assumption off the fact that IVT are usually always south biased modeled this far out, and the fact that the nam has a ULL over the Hudson valley...whats your scientific reasoning for thinking it stays over jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam sits a 994 Low right over the Hudson valley, with no precip... I don't buy that, if nams correct there will not be dry slots with all those energy players Pressure are low across a huge region under that trough... seeing an "L" overhead doesn't mean a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm basing my assumption off the fact that IVT are usually always south biased modeled this far out, and the fact that the nam has a ULL over the Hudson valley...whats your scientific reasoning for thinking it stays over jersey? No scientific reason - just experience and to be honest they are almost unforecastable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 So everyone's clear.. It's still snowing, pretty good after this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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