2/9-2/10 Inverted Trough/Mini-Coastal Storm

[NEG NAO]

this is where you want the secondary to form - south of us and then move slowly northeast - which it probably will with the coastal in front of it -Euro was showing this also

 

 

[easternsnowman]

good read from Mt Holly NWS.

the norlun trough seems to be the best be to produce some decent snows early this week.

 

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE

TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THESE

SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE

GULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO

OCCUR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT

FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF

STREAM. THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENS

WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, IF ANY, LATE SUNDAY INTO

EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL

DISAGREEMENT THAT HAS MADE IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE WHAT THE

OUTCOME WILL BE. ONE GENERAL CAMP OF MODELS HAS THE LOW BOMBING OUT

AND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OTHER CAMP IS MORE

PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN A

TRACK THAT IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES,

JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO

SPARE OUR AREA FROM DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM (E.G., HEAVY SNOW

AND STRONG WINDS). WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.

MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE

LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCT

EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKING

VERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONG

SST GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE

ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. ACCORDINGLY, WE FAVOR THESE

WESTERN SOLUTIONS AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RA/SN IN DE

AND NJ. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT

ACCUMULATIONS.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THE

GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN

SEABOARD, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING

OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW

APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO WHERE

EXACTLY THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS. THESE MILLER-B TYPE SETUPS ARE

NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY. IF THE MILLER B LOW FORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND

FARTHER OFFSHORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM INDICATED, THEN

SETUP WOULD FAVOR LIGHTER SNOW (STARTING OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR

JUST RAIN ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST) FROM THE

PRIMARY LOW FOR OUR AREA. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AT OUR LATITUDE AND

DEEPENS QUICKLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD

INDICATED, THEN PARTS OF OUR AREA COULD BE IN LINE FOR A BAND OF

HEAVIER SNOW BACK TO THE WEST ALONG AN INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH. SINCE

OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS FROM NOW (THRU MONDAY

NIGHT), THE AMOUNTS ON THE WEBPAGE ONLY INCLUDE PART OF THE STORM.

DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM WPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...A GENERAL 1-

2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST

FORECASTS SINCE THEY WILL BE REFINED AS THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASES

OVER TIME

They are pros and very good I would listen to them!

[MJO812]

[wthrmn654]

Just saying, 06z gfs is west..... Guess everyone gave up again lol

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Just saying, 06z gfs is west..... Guess everyone gave up again lol

Problem is we DONT want the initial storm to come west, unless it's a drastic shift west and rides the coast.. Then that's our big storm... If it comes close enough to just scrap us with a couple inches, it will cause the ULL coming from the Midwest to be weaker therefor push OTS... IMO, we want a weaker initial storm, that pulls OTS quickly, allowing the ULL to strengthen to our south and ride the coast

[nycwinter]

Problem is we DONT want the initial storm to come west, unless it's a drastic shift west and rides the coast.. Then that's our big storm... If it comes close enough to just scrap us with a couple inches, it will cause the ULL coming from the Midwest to be weaker therefor push OTS... IMO, we want a weaker initial storm, that pulls OTS quickly, allowing the ULL to strengthen to our south and ride the coast

since the ots quickly looks like it won't happen why not hope the first storm comes close enough to give us some accumulating snow...

[NYCGreg]

Problem is we DONT want the initial storm to come west, unless it's a drastic shift west and rides the coast.. Then that's our big storm... If it comes close enough to just scrap us with a couple inches, it will cause the ULL coming from the Midwest to be weaker therefor push OTS... IMO, we want a weaker initial storm, that pulls OTS quickly, allowing the ULL to strengthen to our south and ride the coast

That solution appears less likely than the first wave riding up the coast. It seems that all or most of the guidance has a strong storm for wave 1. At that point might as well have it ride up the coast, as it will adversely affect system 2 either way.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

GFS is still pretty far OTS

[snow1]

GFS is still pretty far OTS

Even further than the last run

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Even further than the last run

Model noise, pretty much same run as 06

[MJO812]

Another low forming on the Del Marva at 66 hours

[Allsnow]

GFS has accumulating snow for the area Monday night. That's are best shot for snow with the second wave and w/e ivt trough forms

[Allsnow]

GFS has the ivt troughs centered around Phl these often trend north regardless we should all see a nice advisory event Monday night

[Allsnow]

Snows all day Tuesday and more accumulating snow Tuesday evening

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Like I said earlier, at this point, hope for that first storm to exit quick and be weaker, and we could get a nice long duration event

[Zelocita Weather]

Yeah, I think our best shot now is the secondary upper low/trough forming a Miller B/INV TR around the delmarva and cashing in on that storm, and not the initial. 

 

Even so, verbatim the GFS is pretty much 3-6"/4-8" area wide..

[PB GFI]

System 2  would be a WARNING  event for the area 

[MJO812]

GFS has an inverted trought near NYC while Euro has it south of the area

[Allsnow]

A long duration event in February doesn't amount to much snow stick.

The GFS has 4-8 for the event. Main times for snow is Monday night into Tuesday and then again Tuesday night temps below 32

[PB GFI]

Still snowing on LI at this time 

 

[MJO812]

GFS

[Stormlover74]

Need some sort of consistency from the models. The GFS had less than .1 qpf this morning and now it has 6-10'?

[PB GFI]

A long duration event in February doesn't amount to much snow stick.

 

850`s -5 to - 10 BL in the upper 20`s . What planet are you from ? 

[PB GFI]

BL

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Euro and Euro para has the inverted trough way down south

[Zelocita Weather]

Hmmm, worse things than a cold (mid-upper 20's) 6-12" longer duration  event.

[Stormlover74]

850`s -5 to - 10 BL in the upper 20`s . What planet are you from ? 

During daylight hours temps are not cold enough to support sticking if the snow is light. Luckily the gfs as of now has only snow showery type stuff during the day Tuesday

[Allsnow]

Artic air comes crashing in Wed night. Don't go above frz Thursday and Friday

[EasternLI]

I wouldn't sleep on more of a miller b look for wave 2 just yet as opposed to an INVT. That first wave is out of there pretty quickly. I don't think we're looking at the final solution just yet. We've seen lots of changes in the short term this year.

[MJO812]

GGEM has the trough in SNJ