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2/9-2/10 Inverted Trough/Mini-Coastal Storm

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted

Messy setup with multiple waves. Dont like it at all and inverted troughs are extremely sketchy and difficult to forecast.

I think they'll be a lot of light snow around and at best a moderate hit.

Based on what analysis? All you need is for the upper level low to have a Neg trough and that storms ridings the coast... there's LOADS of potential in these pieces of energy

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NYCGreg

NYCGreg

Posted
Posted

I'll only bite if the Euro bites, and potential doesn't always mean results.

By no means am I saying this is definitely a hit, but using the Euro as gospel is probably not the way to go. The Euro has been trash in the big events lately, so much so I almost don't care what it shows.

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted

Those were forecast a lot closer to a hit than this. Gfs wants nothing to do with it.

There's not enough separation between the ocean storm and the disturbance behind it. On the gfs that disturbance basically acts like a kicker.

No the fact the trough isn't negative on the upper level low over the Midwest is what kicks it out... Has nothing to do with the ocean storm

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted

Those were forecast a lot closer to a hit than this. Gfs wants nothing to do with it.

There's not enough separation between the ocean storm and the disturbance behind it. On the gfs that disturbance basically acts like a kicker.

 

That ULL has to cross our area regardless so with or without the big coastal its gonna be quite wintry for 24-48 hrs early next week..

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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted

I thought the 00z Euro was a nice improvement for the 2nd wave. H5 heights were much higher in between the two waves. The main problem I saw with that run was that the OTS storm robbed a lot of moisture. Leaving dry air instead of a moisture feed from the Atlantic. That is a potential concern. If that 1st storm is a miss (which I still think it is) then I'd rather that 1st wave get out of the way.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Let me preface this serious question by saying I realize this model has applications better suited for severe season tho it was the first to nail the Boxing Day Storm. In general, it is usually too wrapped up with slp so I do realize that verbatim this solution is by itself and has about a .5% of verifying. My question: is this even meteorologically/physically possible, ie, the Midwest energy phasing into the SE Coast vorticity? This sort of physics is out of my league, so I'm just curious if this is even possible? At the surface the CRAS tracks the SE Coast low just off the coast and hammers inland areas. Again, I realize this isn't going to happen.....I'm more or less posing the question regarding the H5 physics that allow this to occur via this model solution.

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted

good read from Mt Holly NWS.

the norlun trough seems to be the best be to produce some decent snows early this week.

 

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENS
WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, IF ANY, LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT THAT HAS MADE IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE WHAT THE
OUTCOME WILL BE. ONE GENERAL CAMP OF MODELS HAS THE LOW BOMBING OUT
AND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OTHER CAMP IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN A
TRACK THAT IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES,
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
SPARE OUR AREA FROM DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM (E.G., HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS). WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.
MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE
LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCT
EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKING
VERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONG
SST GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. ACCORDINGLY, WE FAVOR THESE
WESTERN SOLUTIONS AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RA/SN IN DE
AND NJ. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO WHERE
EXACTLY THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS. THESE MILLER-B TYPE SETUPS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY. IF THE MILLER B LOW FORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND
FARTHER OFFSHORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM INDICATED, THEN
SETUP WOULD FAVOR LIGHTER SNOW (STARTING OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
JUST RAIN ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST) FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW FOR OUR AREA. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AT OUR LATITUDE AND
DEEPENS QUICKLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD
INDICATED, THEN PARTS OF OUR AREA COULD BE IN LINE FOR A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW BACK TO THE WEST ALONG AN INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH. SINCE
OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS FROM NOW (THRU MONDAY
NIGHT), THE AMOUNTS ON THE WEBPAGE ONLY INCLUDE PART OF THE STORM.
DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM WPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...A GENERAL 1-
2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS SINCE THEY WILL BE REFINED AS THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASES
OVER TIME

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

With the Arctic Oscillation's being forecast to be positive for at least the next 5-7 days, odds are likely against more than a glancing blow from the offshore system. 81% of NYC's 6" or greater storms during the 2/15 +/- 10 day period have occurred when the AO was negative. The AO+ setup usually favors parts of New England and sometimes Long Island. The AO+/PNA+ combination has accounted for just under 5% of those cases. Yesterday's event is an example of a more common event that has occurred when the AO was positive.

 

Of course, low probability does not mean no probability. It also does not mean zero impact, but at least for now a light impact on Monday seems much more likely than a significant one for the NYC metro area and adjacent suburbs (especially northern and western ones). And, at least IMO, any snow is still better than none.

 

Finally, given the forecast teleconnections and likely presence of Arctic air near or just after mid-month, The 10-day period beginning around 2/13 might offer better prospects for a more significant storm.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

This threat is done IMO

Only for anything above a SECS IMO....SECS or less is still on the table IMO - the positive AO and PNA right now and that the trough is not going negative or sharpening up enough ( at least on the models) to bring the coastal storm closer to the coast is the main problem. Now the big question is where does the secondary system in the trough form next week - that will determine how much frozen falls around the metro.........

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.

MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE

LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCT

EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKING

VERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONG

 

 

my exact thought process, before even reading that.  

 

The only difference is, i'm not chicken in admitting the NAM has been superior in taking the lead for both events as well. 

 

Will it get some respect if it goes 3/3 this season?  probably not..

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