Zelocita Weather Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 START Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GFS has been very consistent and other models have had off and on a coastal/SE Atlantic major storm forming 2/6-2/8. Way too soon to say if it has any impact on mid Atlantic or north east but given pattern likely there will be a storm of some sort. Possible could be rain, snow, or nothing at this point, but chances of a storm of some sort in the SE/off the coast are very high. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=144ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_144_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160202+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area We also need to be monitoring the NAO and AO for as we know when then are negative it favors the development of a storm and cold result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Wrong storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Wrong storm This comes 1st . Thought people should know . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Is this rain or snow the UK is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 EURO FEB 9 Day 7 Miller B for coastal sections as per Euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro shows the low closing off east of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Is this rain or snow the UK is showing? Rain - at this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Rain - at this time! If these 850s are right the BL would cool and it would S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 If these 850s are right the BL would cool and it would S Yeah, possibly.. I was just looking verbatim by the 540 dm line (only general guide) but there are several other factors like the net evaporational cooling you mentioned, the lows track, the wind direction and sea surface temperature, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yeah, possibly.. I was just looking verbatim by the 540 dm line (only general guide) but there are several other factors like the net evaporational cooling you mentioned, the lows track, the wind direction and sea surface temperature, etc.. Agree. Would like to see the GFS come W like the Euro did at 12z ( although a scrape/ was better than it`s 0z ) . The UKIE/JMA both drop throw precip west now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 18z GFS light/moderate hit for New England... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 00z GFS has a mod snowstorm for the area Tuesday. Miller B with wave 3 similar to euro and ggem. Huge pna spike with trough going negative very very explosive set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 00z GFS has a mod snowstorm for the area Tuesday. Miller B with wave 3 similar to euro and ggem. Huge pna spike with trough going negative very very explosive set up yes but can't trust any solution of the GFS yet because every run is different then the previous runs and this last one 0Z looks suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 yes but can't trust any solution of the GFS yet because every run is different then the previous runs and this last one 0Z looks suspect Every global model today trended to a Miller B with the 3rd wave. Pna spike with tanking -ao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Every global model today trended to a Miller B with the 3rd wave. Pna spike with tanking -ao Tellies are looking good. GGEM is now a mess. Disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Man, if that low over the GL phases in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Guys, since we have multiple threats (3) being discussed be specific as to what threat you are talking about. Discuss all threats in here. To make it easier, refer to them as Wave 1, 2 and 3 or threat 1, 2 and 3....really anything, as long as it's easily identifiable to people. I'm usually not one to do this as I feel people should be able to look at these things themselves but to those who want to learn a little I think it would be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Like I said last year, with this kind of 300mb jet structure over us...I'm in the camp that the models will adjust the precip field and continue to edge west. Best forcing over Jersey. Do not be surprised if the ECMWF adjusts as well. Wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Took a look at the GFS and I'll tell you what. Get that failed OTS system moving out a bit quicker, raise the heights, allow the system to cut off quicker, and you have yourself another explosive little storm. Anyone remember Jan 30th, 2000 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Current NYC 7 day forecast is dry for what we are discussing and temps above freezing. Of course, the forecast this far out is subject to change. NYZ072-030915-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-1039 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016.OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLYCLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH..WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING...THENRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT..WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINAFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITHGUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OFRAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT..THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND10 MPH..THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH..FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S..FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S..SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S..SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S..SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S..SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S..MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S..MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S..TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The UKIE for Friday . Strorm 1 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 FOR STORM NUMBER 2 THE EURO @ 0z DROPS A BLIZZARD ON DAY 7 . AND Here is the GFS with it`s SECS version with a nice CCB signature . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The UKIE for Friday . Strorm 1 . Rather significant bump west with precip. How are temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 How's the euro for this? The UKIE for Friday . Strorm 1 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Rather significant bump west with precip. How are temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 BL is ugly I see. We'll see, what did the euro show for wave #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 BL is ugly I see. We'll see, what did the euro show for wave #1 That is prob saying 33 . Don`t look at the BL . - 2 850`s with that kind of precip you would drop right to 0c and it is SNOW . Right now the UKIE is the most aggressive . Both the Canadian and Euro forecast lighter amounts however these have come W all year as we got inside 48 hours so there is still time for the guidance to tick W for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 That is prob saying 33 . Don`t look at the BL . - 2 850`s with that kind of precip you would drop right to 0c and it is SNOW . Yeah it's snow but warm ground, yeah it's decent precip and can overcome warmth. Either way UK was positive today...EURO bite a little on Friday yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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