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February Banter Thread


H2O

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I am pulling for a decent period of warm advection/overrunning snow on the backside of the departing high and well ahead of the low approaching from the SW. IMO this is the only chance for places I-95 and east to see a few inches of snow. This is ultimately going to be a mild rainstorm.

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I'm only half-way kidding when I say that I think we should have a thread for this afternoon/evening, especially because it may end up being a higher impact event than Monday/Tuesday.

 

i agree - i made the last event threads, go for it! 

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This season should finally answer the question of whether you can have a good season with a HECS and nothing else...

 

IMO, if the HECS happened in December, then yes, good winter.  

 

I think an HECS could make a winter so long as you had good periods of cold that didn't end in warm cutters, and had protracted snow-cover from the HECS.  We failed spectacularly on both counts this year.  Add a kick-in-the-nuts debacle followed immediately by our best stretch of cold of the winter, only to be chased away by a warm cutter, and you have the complete dog-#%* winter of 2016.  IMO, nothing that could happen in March can save it either.  March is a spring month.  Don't care if its March '93, don't care if there are two March '93 storms back-to-back.

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I think the long range forecasts and general expectations going into winter have done ok in these parts. Overall warmer than normal with low # of events and increased chances for a big storm or 2. Dec was punted by almost everyone.

We got our Feb hecs in Jan and blocking has kinda stunk in general. We still have more than half of Feb left. No reason to assume chances are over even though late next week will be warmish.

Is it an ideal winter? Nope. Has it gone mostly to plan? Typical twists and turns but I think the basic ideas for winter have verified with the exception of blocking.

My long range forecast for next winter includes a +nao and fickle ao. Lol.

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I feel like we've moved away from the mantra of the past couple of seasons-- that it's too early to lock in a model solution outside of 72-hrs even if there's model consensus. Maybe the locking in of the blizzard made people feel more confident? But it seemed like there was more confidence yesterday than was warranted-- not by all, just a majority-- that we were looking at the final outcome. 

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On this tap talk app, it shows little previews for images contained within the thread... On the Not NOVA\DC thread, there is a pic wth a great big red blob in the mid Atlantic. What was that from? I'm on my phone and struggling to find it in 50pages of the thread

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sounds like a qpf image

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