February Banter Thread

[PhineasC]

About that time of the season to have an overhyped ice storm that fails to deliver for the vast majority of the area.

[Heisy]

This stuff is becoming too funny to take seriously.

 

Pattern is the buzz word in this forum, that's for sure.

 

Huh? Isn't the point of a LR sub-thread to talk about the pattern? We're currently in a decent pattern, but sometimes you get unlucky & you don't cash in. Not trying to cause drama in this thread, but if you don't like talk about potential patterns, just browse a different thread? idk. Snowstorms just don't happen. You need decent patterns to give yourself a shot at a winter storm. Whether that is a +PNA, NAO, etc....that's why when looking at the ensembles you hope to see some of those showing up. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

About that time of the season to have an overhyped ice storm that fails to deliver for the vast majority of the area.

 

Kind of sounds a lot like yesterday.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Huh? Isn't the point of a LR sub-thread to talk about the pattern? We're currently in a decent pattern, but sometimes you get unlucky & you don't cash in. Not trying to cause drama in this thread, but if you don't like talk about potential patterns, just browse a different thread? idk. Snowstorms just don't happen. You need decent patterns to give yourself a shot at a winter storm. Whether that is a +PNA, NAO, etc....that's why when looking at the ensembles you hope to see some of those showing up. 

Probably so.  I think I'm just a bit jaded at this point.  

 

A pattern means little to me if the view out of the window isn't white.  I actually do worse with "what might have been" than I do with "there was never a chance".

 

I don't think the LR thread is specifically for patterns.  Occasionally there needs to be some legit threats.  Looking 15 days down the road isn't long range discussion.  It's fantasy.

[snowfan]

Probably so. I think I'm just a bit jaded at this point.

A pattern means little to me if the view out of the window isn't white. I actually do worse with "what might have been" than I do with "there was never a chance".

I don't think the LR thread is specifically for patterns. Occasionally there needs to be some legit threats. Looking 15 days down the road isn't long range discussion. It's fantasy.

You just got 30" less than 3 weeks ago.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Not a problem.

 

I gotta say that in my 8 winters here, this is easily the worst.  From 12:30 Jan 23 to 6 pm Jan 24 it was amazing.  That's just shy of 36 hours.  Outside of that, we have literally had nothing.  And I mean nothing.  There has been no other accumulating snow at my house.  So, to date, we have 36 hours of winter out of what, 70 days?  Pretty lame.

 

Of course there's about 5 weeks left, but if it ends like this, the verdict is in for me.  And if the next 5 are like the last 2 and half since the storm, it can't end fast enough.

 

Maybe WxWatcher should put me on the stone.  

 

Based on that one storm alone, I think it easily surpasses 2008, 2011 and 2012.  Otherwise, I agree 100%; it's been an absolute horrid winter out here.  Yesterday's debacle might have reached a new low.  As far as I'm concerned, this winter can end right now, then the suffering can stop.

[Bob Chill]

You just got 30" less than 3 weeks ago.

The season hasnt been filled with long stretches of cold, 8 snow events, and months of snowcover. He's out.

[snowfan]

The season hasnt been filled with long stretches of cold, 8 snow events, and months of snowcover. He's out.

Ha. So it's been a fairly normal MA winter.

[WinterWxLuvr]

You just got 30" less than 3 weeks ago.

That's a tired line and I'm tired of explaining to everybody.  If you're fine with a 36 hour winter, so be it.

[Bob Chill]

One of the biggest storms ever just hit the region. It's February 10th. Anyone complaining looks silly right now.

We haven't had endless threats and a major storm every weeks. He's out.

[snowfan]

That's a tired line and I'm tired of explaining to everybody. If you're fine with a 36 hour winter, so be it.

All you do anymore is complain. That is what's tired.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The season hasnt been filled with long stretches of cold, 8 snow events, and months of snowcover. He's out.

You guys can keep on with charade of being "above it all" all you want.  This winter has been awful.

 

There's a whole list of people ever who bitched, whined, cried, moaned, etc. about how DC hadn't had a 2" snow event in........to hear some of you guys tell it...........since the stone age.  That was OK.  Right?

[WinterWxLuvr]

We haven't had endless threats and a major storm every weeks. He's out.

We got it the first time you said it.

[Ian]

lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

All you do anymore is complain. That is what's tired.

You guys only want opinions that agree with your own.

[Z-Cast]

We got it the first time you said it.

 

There's a banter thread for a reason. Try adding value to the discussion instead.

 

00z GFS para still appears to be moving toward the Euro solution, although still OTS.

[Bob Chill]

lol

I'm enjoying it too

[EastCoast NPZ]

Expressing displeasure with someone's opinion is one thing that baffles me.  Who cares if someone else thinks the winter is terrible or fantastic?  It's an opinion rooted in the preferences and experiences of that person, not yours.  Accept it, offer your own, but to make a judgment on it is silly.

 

This probably should have been in banter, but I don't know how to move it.

[Bob Chill]

Expressing displeasure with someone's opinion is one thing that baffles me. Who cares if someone else thinks the winter is terrible or fantastic? It's an opinion rooted in the preferences and experiences of that person, not yours. Accept it, offer your own, but to make a judgment on it is silly.

The only displeasure happening is because of non disco hindsight opinion posts in the disco thread.

I'm having fun responding though.

[Ian]

I'm enjoying it too

Given our winter history it's not too logical to call this one terrible. It might leave something to be desired but it could be whole lot worse as you know.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yes, my apologies to all.  This is not the thread for silly stuff like I'm rambling on about.

 

The clipper on the para is the type I was having a conversation with Ian about just a few days ago.  Been a long time since I've seen one like that modeled.  I would love to see that one happen.

 

 

 

No two winters are alike, but this time last year we had yet to experience the 2/14 mega squall, the 2/16 event, the 2/21 event that stayed snow a lot longer than forecast (this was a Saturday when the west side of 495 turned into a parking lot), snow the morning of 2/26, 3/5, the late March snow and the Sunday ice storm that held on longer than anyone anticipated.

That is true.  I did qualify my opinion with the reference to it's not over.  I think I'm feeling the pressure of the time constraints now.

[Fozz]

Not a problem.

 

I gotta say that in my 8 winters here, this is easily the worst.  From 12:30 Jan 23 to 6 pm Jan 24 it was amazing.  That's just shy of 36 hours.  Outside of that, we have literally had nothing.  And I mean nothing.  There has been no other accumulating snow at my house.  So, to date, we have 36 hours of winter out of what, 70 days?  Pretty lame.

 

Of course there's about 5 weeks left, but if it ends like this, the verdict is in for me.  And if the next 5 are like the last 2 and half since the storm, it can't end fast enough.

 

Maybe WxWatcher should put me on the stone.  

 

No offense, but calling this winter worse than 2011-12 (or 2008-09 in your area) is insanity.

[mdsnowlover]

That's a tired line and I'm tired of explaining to everybody.  If you're fine with a 36 hour winter, so be it.

maybe you need to reconsider!!

[mappy]

You just got 30" less than 3 weeks ago.

 

he's pushing 40" for the season, but is jaded. poor guy. 

[mappy]

No offense, but calling this winter worse than 2011-12 (or 2008-09 in your area) is insanity.

 

40" for the season just isn't enough, Fozz. Come on now. 

[osfan24]

Take out Denver's win over Carolina and their season sucked. Spent the whole time watching a noodle arm qb try to throw the ball 10 yards.

[mdsnowlover]

Take out Denver's win over Carolina and their season sucked. Spent the whole time watching a noodle arm qb try to throw the ball 10 yards.

dont worry he's off to the hall of fame first ballott, and retires a winner, and big boy brady lost to him,,lol!!

[clueless]

LR is a total messy mess.  LOL.  Bring it hear and tell us what you really think.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

You guys only want opinions that agree with your own.

 

No, I don't think that's really the case.  I don't see the issue with discussing "general pattern" stuff in here, that's part of what the medium range is about, even if there aren't any specific threats.

 

The general feeling before this winter began was that with the "super Nino" (or whatever it's being called), we shouldn't expect anything like the cold we had in 2013-14 or even Feb-Mar last year.  At least, nothing persistent like that.  Heck, we shouldn't expect that in most any year.  If anything, a pretty good majority of the "long rangers" were saying a warmer than normal DJF period, with Dec. being perhaps the warmest of the lot.  As for snow, I think many hedged on the lower end of the scale, below normal but not awful or like 1997-98.  Those people also said we should expect notably fewer events than what we got the past two winters.  There were also some who gave hints that even if we're relatively warm and wet, we have a somewhat higher chance of scoring one big event (I think WestminsterDeathband said this, among others?).  I don't know of anyone who was saying we're in for a rockin' February, unless they were being weenieish after the blizzard or saying it for fun.  Perhaps some said we should have more blocking based on Nino climatology, though not sure how that will pan out now.  Nobody was calling for a Feb. 2010 or 2003 redux.

 

So to be honest, thus far this winter is not all that far from those early forecast projections.  It's been warmer than normal, though not sure how much wetter (seems like less precip than you might expect from a strong Nino, but not sure of that).  We haven't had a lot to track, which isn't unexpected really.  Yes, we had the record torch in December which almost guarantees one of the top warmest DJF periods for the area.  Many called for a very warm December but of course nobody is going to call for a record like that.  But we did get the one "big event" in a favorable pattern set-up that yes...people had talked about 10 or so days before that (i.e., "pattern talk"), and we've had some legitimate cold in January.  We're going to get some legitimate cold the next few days, too and perhaps again later in the month into March if those indications are correct.  To be sure, other than the blizzard there's been nearly nothing to track, but I think part of that is we don't seem to have had as many coastals as one might expect in a Nino thus far.

 

And as others have said before, that's about how things go in this region.  We don't typically get prolonged cold and many events to follow around here.  In and near the metro areas at least, it quite literally can be one storm that makes your entire seasonal total (or exceed your average, for that matter).  Just how it is, I guess.  Other than December, we haven't really "torched" too much (knock on wood!); there has been some good cold around.  Yes, other than the blizzard not much has materialized, but other than December it's not like we've been in a "nothing to even look at or consider" situation.

 

I still expect a decent event or two before we're done, and would hope that's not being overly weenieish.

[Yeoman]

No, I don't think that's really the case.  I don't see the issue with discussing "general pattern" stuff in here, that's part of what the medium range is about, even if there aren't any specific threats.

 

The general feeling before this winter began was that with the "super Nino" (or whatever it's being called), we shouldn't expect anything like the cold we had in 2013-14 or even Feb-Mar last year.  At least, nothing persistent like that.  Heck, we shouldn't expect that in most any year.  If anything, a pretty good majority of the "long rangers" were saying a warmer than normal DJF period, with Dec. being perhaps the warmest of the lot.  As for snow, I think many hedged on the lower end of the scale, below normal but not awful or like 1997-98.  Those people also said we should expect notably fewer events than what we got the past two winters.  There were also some who gave hints that even if we're relatively warm and wet, we have a somewhat higher chance of scoring one big event (I think WestminsterDeathband said this, among others?).  I don't know of anyone who was saying we're in for a rockin' February, unless they were being weenieish after the blizzard or saying it for fun.  Perhaps some said we should have more blocking based on Nino climatology, though not sure how that will pan out now.  Nobody was calling for a Feb. 2010 or 2003 redux.

 

So to be honest, thus far this winter is not all that far from those early forecast projections.  It's been warmer than normal, though not sure how much wetter (seems like less precip than you might expect from a strong Nino, but not sure of that).  We haven't had a lot to track, which isn't unexpected really.  Yes, we had the record torch in December which almost guarantees one of the top warmest DJF periods for the area.  Many called for a very warm December but of course nobody is going to call for a record like that.  But we did get the one "big event" in a favorable pattern set-up that yes...people had talked about 10 or so days before that (i.e., "pattern talk"), and we've had some legitimate cold in January.  We're going to get some legitimate cold the next few days, too and perhaps again later in the month into March if those indications are correct.  To be sure, other than the blizzard there's been nearly nothing to track, but I think part of that is we don't seem to have had as many coastals as one might expect in a Nino thus far.

 

And as others have said before, that's about how things go in this region.  We don't typically get prolonged cold and many events to follow around here.  In and near the metro areas at least, it quite literally can be one storm that makes your entire seasonal total (or exceed your average, for that matter).  Just how it is, I guess.  Other than December, we haven't really "torched" too much (knock on wood!); there has been some good cold around.  Yes, other than the blizzard not much has materialized, but other than December it's not like we've been in a "nothing to even look at or consider" situation.

 

I still expect a decent event or two before we're done, and would hope that's not being overly weenieish.

Do you guys hold jobs?