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February 2016 Banter


JoshM

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I'd say it's closer to 170 miles north. Its a 180 mile north to south drive from Raleigh to Myrtle Beach and Myrtle Beach is the same latitude as Atlanta.

 

 

Maybe by paved road, but by direct route it's less than 150 miles from Raleigh to Myrtle Beach

 

Atlanta and Myrtle Beach are basically the same latitude. Both are ~140 miles to Raleigh.

 

Atlanta: 33.7550° N

Myrtle Beach: 33.7167° N

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The point is, the triangle of NC averages only an inch more yearly on average than Atlanta. He wish casts snow totals that Boone or Banner Elk receives.

The point is, the triangle of NC averages only an inch more yearly on average than Atlanta. He wish casts snow totals that Boone or Banner Elk receives.

That's not true. RDU averages 7.5 inches a year compared to ATLs 2.9.

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In easy, short terms I believe the control is a form of the main Operational run at a lower resolution.  Then that control run has little changes applied and each member come up with a forecast of it's own with those little changes.

 

In experience, if an ensemble mean, members, or SOMETIMES the control run vary greatly from the operational run, some digging needs to be done to figure out why.  Ensembles are a wonderful thing.

Thanks for the explanation! Still trying to pick this stuff up, but at least this makes more sense to me now. Sounds like initialization plays an even bigger part of modeling than I thought.

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Burrel, just makes it look like the nuclear station is zapping all the snow haha, the snow hole up here is real. BTW, where did you get that pic from, that is awesome, I'd like to look at other storms if possible.

I had that picture saved on my computer from the day it happened. I'm a glutton for punishment i guess. lol

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I've always been confused about why your location says Central SC but your avatar has a county in upstate SC highlighted. Then I figured out there's a town in SC called Central lol.

Lol, 

 

yea, that's why I put the map as my avatar. Before I did that everyone assumed I was from Columbia, ewww.

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Lol,

yea, that's why I put the map as my avatar. Before I did that everyone assumed I was from Columbia, ewww.

I just figured that you used live in upstate SC but you moved to the Columbia area. I noticed the comma after Central but I still just assumed that you lived in Columbia. Ive never heard of a town called Central so I assumed there was no such town lol.
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Thanks for the explanation! Still trying to pick this stuff up, but at least this makes more sense to me now. Sounds like initialization plays an even bigger part of modeling than I thought.

 

It works best if you stop thinking of models as the product.  The art you see is a simple visual reflecting the potential resolutions of the math problem.

 

Models are math.  If you make a mistake on step 1 or 2 (bad initialization, for example), everything that follows is going to be off.

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It works best if you stop thinking of models as the product.  The art you see is a simple visual reflecting the potential resolutions of the math problem.

 

Models are math.  If you make a mistake on step 1 or 2 (bad initialization, for example), everything that follows is going to be off.

 

Very good explanation on "numerical" models.  I can't think of one time a model has ever been 100% correct outside 24 hours and that might be pushing it.  They are guidance to possibility and it's up to the ones with meteorological degrees to come up with a sensible forecast.

 

In fact, it is ridiculous how people try to talk bad about professional meteorologists because they aren't talking about an event or willing to pull a trigger because of a few model runs.  It's almost like if someone on television says it is possible or a forecast discussion hints at some p-type issues, that the modeling is totally correct and they may as well add it to the forecast right away.

 

In fact, that same thing happens with advisories, watches, and warnings.  I could go on forever, but again, great point you made.

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heck, even Birmingham and columbia get big snowfalls more frequently than Atlanta. In fact, name me one city in the entire stretch of I-20 that gets big snows as infrequently as Atlanta does. Its been 33 years since Atlanta has had a 6" snow. Even areas south of Atlanta have had bigger snows than Atlantas biggest snow. I think Columbus to Macon had like a foot of snow or more in the 70s. I'm not sure Atlanta has ever had a double digit snowfall.

The southeast US generally tends to do better when the Atlantic is in the cold AMO phase and or the Atlantic is in the inactive hurricane phase. They tend to coincide. I would bet if you look at the snow data for most southeast cities you will see that there was a drop in snow in the 1944-1968 period when the Atlantic hurricane phase was active much like there maybe has been since 93 and 94 when its been active again

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