mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 well I don't get off work until 6pm on Sunday. I suppose I could take off and go to soco. But only if it looks to be a major major snow like 6" +Turnaround , don't drown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 well I don't get off work until 6pm on Sunday. I suppose I could take off and go to soco. But only if it looks to be a major major snow like 6" +soco will have 10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 soco will have 10+. You really think so ? I don't see anything about those kind of amounts from any of the NWS offices. Although Charleston NWS did say this: HOWEVER... IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You really think so ? I don't see anything about those kind of amounts from any of the NWS offices.trust me, I have been there several times during good flow events. Dress warm and be prepared, it's 4500ft and the temps will be in the low teams with below 0 wind chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You really think so ? I don't see anything about those kind of amounts from any of the NWS offices. Although Charleston NWS did say this: HOWEVER... IN A WORST CASE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...AND RAIN/MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED/HEAVIER BURSTS OF WET SNOW WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUT QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS...TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. WHILE THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...THIS MODEL APPEARS TO CONVERT TOO MUCH RAIN TO SNOW AND COULD WELL BE PLACING THE CRITICAL COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/CRITICAL TEMPS FOR SNOW MUCH TOO FAR INLAND. that's from Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 trust me, I have been there several times during good flow events. Dress warm and be prepared, it's 4500ft and the temps will be in the low teams with below 0 wind chill. Ok I think I'm getting confused. Soco doesnt mean South Carolina ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ok I think I'm getting confused. Soco doesnt mean South Carolina ?soco is soco gap between Cherokee and Maggie valley, about an hour from Andrews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ok I think I'm getting confused. Soco doesnt mean South Carolina ?Soco gap, in NC! Go to Rome on Mon, they are gonna get clippered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Soco gap, in NC! Go to Rome on Mon, they are gonna get clippered! Is clippered even a word ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I wonder if Cherokee, NC would do well next week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Is clippered even a word ?Yep! Clippered V: what will NOT happen to anyone in SC, Mon or Tues, see also: rain, WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I wonder if Cherokee, NC would do well next week ?probably a few inches. Soco is 15 Minutes up the mtn, no point in hanging out in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 probably a few inches. Soco is 15 Minutes up the mtn, no point in hanging out in the valley. Yeah but there's like literally no place to stay in Soco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yep! Clippered V: what will NOT happen to anyone in SC, Mon or Tues, see also: rain, WAA You don't think even Oconee or Pickens County will get any snow from the clipper ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah but there's like literally no place to stay in Soco.well you can get a hotel in Cherokee. Are you gonna chase to see some real snow, or are you only going for a few inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah but there's like literally no place to stay in Soco. I would listen to the Mtn crew when your offered suggestions on were to chase, no offense but you never listen, if I was going to invest as much time, effort and money as you do on chasing events I'd make it worth my while. If your worried about getting stuck, then don't chase anymore, or invest in a 4×4. I have 2013 Chevy Sonic I got around fine the other week with four inches on the road. But I've lived in the Mts all my life, I know the tricks of the trade. Not trying to be rude just being straight up. I'd listen to Franklin if you want snow, Soco Gap is typically the place to be with upslope. But if you can't put the big boy pants on don't pass the state line. Mountain driving in snow is a whole other ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You don't think even Oconee or Pickens County will get any snow from the clipper ? Lol, Oconee and Pickens county are the last places that would see snow from a clipper. Your location stands a better chance than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 For the 1st time I can remember a 12Z and 18Z GFS were actually similar. Go figure. I figure maybe some paint is drying .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Soco gap a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Dang, it was snowing sideways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 if Waycross gets dumped on this weekend then their avg may be higher than ours18z NAM hammers Waycross with snow. I believe it since I'm not there lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Per Ryan Maue, here's the latest model verification scores at 5 days (500mb Northern Hemisphere)....Guess who is beating out the GFS? Yep, the UKMET. Model skill NHemi z500 for January 2016: 5-day forecastsECMWF parallel: 0.934ECMWF: 0.928UKMET: 0.914GFS parallel: 0.911GFS: 0.909CMC: 0.905 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Soco gap a few years ago. The dirt road out of the horse farm (Sunday morning) about 5 miles east of Sperryville at the foot of the Blue Ridge, NoVa, a couple weeks ago. The barn Saturday morning about 10am, Jebwalking (8-10" fell after this) My boy, swimming in it. It was a lot of snow, more than I have ever seen fall at one time, it is the benchmark, eclipsing Snowmageddon in DC, where 22-24" was the most consistent stick. This go around, 28" was the most consistent stick in the pastures Saturday evening, 3-5' drifts. We were about 30 miles south of the 36-40" totals. For those interested, we do this, it is for real, I (we) chase snowstorms. Need a solid hatch at 18-24" over 24hrs within reasonable distance for a go, but always looking for another one or two partners. There is a formal screening process to make sure you are not a terrorist or warmista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The dirt road out of the horse farm (Sunday morning) about 5 miles east of Sperryville at the foot of the Blue Ridge, NoVa, a couple weeks ago. IMG_0418 (1).JPG The barn Saturday morning about 10am, Jebwalking (8-10" fell after this) IMG_0270 (2).JPG My boy, swimming in it. IMG_0369 (1).JPG It was a lot of snow, more than I have ever seen fall at one time, it is the benchmark, eclipsing Snowmageddon in DC, where 22-24" was the most consistent stick. This go around, 28" was the most consistent stick in the pastures Saturday evening, 3-5' drifts. We were about 30 miles south of the 36-40" totals. For those interested, we do this, it is for real, I (we) chase snowstorms. Need a solid hatch at 18-24" over 24hrs within reasonable distance for a go, but always looking for another one or two partners. There is a formal screening process to make sure you are not a terrorist or warmista. Still some winter left. The beast is always pointed north and we always have a blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The dirt road out of the horse farm (Sunday morning) about 5 miles east of Sperryville at the foot of the Blue Ridge, NoVa, a couple weeks ago. IMG_0418 (1).JPG The barn Saturday morning about 10am, Jebwalking (8-10" fell after this) IMG_0270 (2).JPG My boy, swimming in it. IMG_0369 (1).JPG It was a lot of snow, more than I have ever seen fall at one time, it is the benchmark, eclipsing Snowmageddon in DC, where 22-24" was the most consistent stick. This go around, 28" was the most consistent stick in the pastures Saturday evening, 3-5' drifts. We were about 30 miles south of the 36-40" totals. For those interested, we do this, it is for real, I (we) chase snowstorms. Need a solid hatch at 18-24" over 24hrs within reasonable distance for a go, but always looking for another one or two partners. There is a formal screening process to make sure you are not a terrorist or warmista. nice, it's been awhile since I have seen that much snow. The pic I posted is just from upslope in the next county. I usually don't have to chase but a few inches at the house is not as good as 12+ up the road. I wouldn't mind a good chase to the tug, the 2500 is always ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 nice, it's been awhile since I have seen that much snow. The pic I posted is just from upslope in the next county. I usually don't have to chase but a few inches at the house is not as good as 12+ up the road. I wouldn't mind a good chase to the tug, the 2500 is always ready to go. That is the Holy Grail, Sir, after awhile, a trip up to the Plateau for an epic 5-8' crush job over the course of a several days, damn, we have talked about it. Need a warm Lake and a very anom airmass moving overhead, Mt. Mitchell also sees the 3-5' totals from time to time, access there could be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That is the Holy Grail, Sir, after awhile, a trip up to the Plateau for an epic 5-8' crush job over the course of a several days, damn, we have talked about it. Need a warm Lake and a very anom airmass moving overhead, Mt. Mitchell also sees the 3-5' totals from time to time, access there could be an issue.yeah it would be nice to head up there for a few days to measure in feet. Some of the high ridge tops here can get those totals but it usually too cold, too windy and lately the forest service has restricted access and starting closing the gates to the old fire towers in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 yeah it would be nice to head up there for a few days to measure in feet. Some of the high ridge tops here can get those totals but it usually too cold, too windy and lately the forest service has restricted access and starting closing the gates to the old fire towers in the winter. 11:35 acording to google maps. I`m game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Guess it's time to cast the net on the other side of the boat. What's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Guess it's time to cast the net on the other side of the boat. What's next?Feb 16-29th looks promising ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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