FallsLake Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 This is why I don't post anymore and I agree with Brick. A couple of people pm'd me to ask if I was posting on another forum, I am not. I have posted on Accuwx before but not this winter. I don't have anything positive to say about winter or the past dozen winters so why I stopped. I do like the hope of snow so I read from time to time. It's hopeless down here for snow this winter but good luck to the optimistic folks. I told Jon/CR that I wouldn't post and was planning on waiting till winter was over but I think we have reached that point. Nice to hear from you Pack! I think the nino did us in this year. We might have actually got lucky to get the sleet storm. Next year might also be hard with the nina, but well see how everything progresses this summer/fall. Short term it looks like the only hope are the clippers. Even that a couple of inches might be the extreme high end of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Mack, buddy are you good? Seems like you have went off the winter deep end. If there is anyone on the board who deserves 10" its you man!Nah man, pretty bummed about the snow chances, didnt think it would pan out three years in a row, to score in Feb! It was a long wait, now looks like it really ain't happening! When a pattern looks great in the 5,7,10 day range for wintry weather, it some how falls apart before it gets here! But show a torch and 70s at day 14 on the GFS , and it's a lock! I mean yeah, we didnt get blanked, but the Jan thing was pretty sad and was worst case scenario for wintry, losing 1.60 QPF to rain, yadda, yadda! I know we live in the south, but damn! Atleast BOS has only 10.3 inches as of today, but I'm sure they will find away to double that by tomorrow night! There's always a hope for 3/1/09 redux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nah man, pretty bummed about the snow chances, didnt think it would pan out three years in a row, to score in Feb! It was a long wait, now looks like it really ain't happening! When a pattern looks great in the 5,7,10 day range for wintry weather, it some how falls apart before it gets here! But show a torch and 70s at day 14 on the GFS , and it's a lock! I mean yeah, we didnt get blanked, but the Jan thing was pretty sad and was worst case scenario for wintry, losing 1.60 QPF to rain, yadda, yadda! I know we live in the south, but damn! Atleast BOS has only 10.3 inches as of today, but I'm sure they will find away to double that by tomorrow night! There's always a hope for 3/1/09 redux! Yeah man weather is a bummer sometimes especially when you are more in the know then the average person. I am pulling for to get a surprise inch or so sometime within the next week man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Trust me, you do not want us applying an annoyance standard to posters. That's cool, because you annoy me, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wow, Dave Mirra killed himself in Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wow, Dave Mirra killed himself in Greenville. terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wow, Dave Mirra killed himself in Greenville. Well that sucks. I was a fan of him back when I did the BMX thing many years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I am not a big BMX fan, but even I know who he is. Probably the most famous rider of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I am not a big BMX fan, but even I know who he is. Probably the most famous rider of all time. Along with Mat Hoffman, Ryan Nyquist. Mat has a bit more name since he's been involved in all kinds of stuff from Jackass to shows with Travis Pastrana etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sad to hear that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wow, Dave Mirra killed himself in Greenville. SC I'm assuming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 SC I'm assuming North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 North Carolina. Large BMX crew here, I think there is something like 20 pro riders who live here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sorry for the seemingly stupid .... Been in litigation and no chance to look. Did quick peek at 3 GFS runs (6, 12, & 18) a short while ago and all the 20's and cold down here are gone; quick peek on the Board and complaints about those same runs focused on differing variables. What happened? For real or a few bad runs? Any input appreciated and will check back in later. Best, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Orlando hasnt even had a freeze this year. I'm pretty sure they usually get at least one or two freezes a year don't they ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Orlando hasnt even had a freeze this year. I'm pretty sure they usually get at least one or two freezes a year don't they ? not in Orlando - different world, but yes we've had a few and a snow shower that lasted 2 hours but that's past tense .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Large BMX crew here, I think there is something like 20 pro riders who live here.Yeah "Protown"...it's like Nascar drivers in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Orlando hasnt even had a freeze this year. I'm pretty sure they usually get at least one or two freezes a year don't they ? Not the Airport or S or SE Orlando per se. But NW and N of there yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Why do we see NW and W trends? Are the models not accounting for something? Is this a typical phenomena? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Sorry for the seemingly stupid .... Been in litigation and no chance to look. Did quick peek at 3 GFS runs (6, 12, & 18) a short while ago and all the 20's and cold down here are gone; quick peek on the Board and complaints about those same runs focused on differing variables. What happened? For real or a few bad runs? Any input appreciated and will check back in later. Best, Phil From 18z yesterday, low temps for Gainesville: 18z 29, 00z 31, 06z 29, 12z 31, 18z 31 So take it for what it's worth, 00z will be back to 29. haha. The HP is nowhere close to being modeled correctly. Compare 18z GFS to 12z GFS and that's all you need to know. The GFS in particular seems to be having trouble with the cold. So is the Euro, though. I wouldn't write off upper 20's yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 From 18z yesterday, low temps for Gainesville: 18z 29, 00z 31, 06z 29, 12z 31, 18z 31 So take it for what it's worth, 00z will be back to 29. haha. The HP is nowhere close to being modeled correctly. Compare 18z GFS to 12z GFS and that's all you need to know. The GFS in particular seems to be having trouble with the cold. I wouldn't write off 20's yet. Thanks Jon! No time to look lately - it's been and is my version of "rotation". GFS was as low as 23/25 a couple days ago, and extended 20's for about 5 nights (MeteoStar, but honestly that's all the time I've had). I'll look earnestly tomorrow night and probably kick myself for asking "stupid" - but hey, there's plenty of that going around! Thanks again! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The models can't get a handle on the weekend coastal until the current system moves offshore. Just thought I'd get that nugget of weenieism out there. (No, I don't actually believe that.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Thanks Jon! No time to look lately - it's been and is my version of "rotation". GFS was as low as 23/25 a couple days ago, and extended 20's for about 5 nights (MeteoStar, but honestly that's all the time I've had). I'll look earnestly tomorrow night and probably kick myself for asking "stupid" - but hey, there's plenty of that going around! Thanks again! Phil No prob. No shame in MeteoStar, it's probably more accurate than my numbers I gave you. Some of those early super cold runs you can probably toss, most likely will see a middle of the road solution. GEFS based analogs from CIPS continue to trend colder, which is interesting as its not backing off. We will see what tomorrow's runs bring....but the signal for deep cold in the SE was there on 1/26, doubt it changes too much now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The models can't get a handle on the weekend coastal until the current system moves offshore. Just thought I'd get that nugget of weenieism out there. (No, I don't actually believe that.) Not sure I've posted in either storm thread, can't remember. Maybe I did about the s/w being sampled and a goose being cooked? That shows my optimism. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Many variables over the next 10 days at least. Lots of potential, so lots to watch. Likely something will pop sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nothing to be overly excited about, but getting some wet flakeage right now. Heck, if this lasts a few hours into early morning, might get a dusting on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 When you wake up at 5:30 and your mobile app says light snow but your porch light says rain. #2016MassiveWinterFAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Boston closing schools for 8-12" of slop snow! And they make fun of snow in the South!? Wusses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 FAB FEB , my arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 FAB FEB , my arse. How much for Phili? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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