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February 2016 Banter


JoshM

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  On 2/5/2016 at 12:09 AM, NCrain said:

This is why I don't post anymore and I agree with Brick. A couple of people pm'd me to ask if I was posting on another forum, I am not. I have posted on Accuwx before but not this winter. I don't have anything positive to say about winter or the past dozen winters so why I stopped. I do like the hope of snow so I read from time to time. It's hopeless down here for snow this winter but good luck to the optimistic folks. I told Jon/CR that I wouldn't post and was planning on waiting till winter was over but I think we have reached that point.

Nice to hear from you Pack! I think the nino did us in this year. We might have actually got lucky to get the sleet storm. Next year might also be hard with the nina, but well see how everything progresses this summer/fall. Short term it looks like the only hope are the clippers. Even that a couple of inches might be the extreme high end of hope.

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  On 2/5/2016 at 12:08 AM, Hvward said:

Mack, buddy are you good? Seems like you have went off the winter deep end. If there is anyone on the board who deserves 10" its you man!

Nah man, pretty bummed about the snow chances, didnt think it would pan out three years in a row, to score in Feb! It was a long wait, now looks like it really ain't happening! When a pattern looks great in the 5,7,10 day range for wintry weather, it some how falls apart before it gets here! But show a torch and 70s at day 14 on the GFS , and it's a lock! I mean yeah, we didnt get blanked, but the Jan thing was pretty sad and was worst case scenario for wintry, losing 1.60 QPF to rain, yadda, yadda! I know we live in the south, but damn! Atleast BOS has only 10.3 inches as of today, but I'm sure they will find away to double that by tomorrow night! There's always a hope for 3/1/09 redux! :(
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  On 2/5/2016 at 12:27 AM, mackerel_sky said:

Nah man, pretty bummed about the snow chances, didnt think it would pan out three years in a row, to score in Feb! It was a long wait, now looks like it really ain't happening! When a pattern looks great in the 5,7,10 day range for wintry weather, it some how falls apart before it gets here! But show a torch and 70s at day 14 on the GFS , and it's a lock! I mean yeah, we didnt get blanked, but the Jan thing was pretty sad and was worst case scenario for wintry, losing 1.60 QPF to rain, yadda, yadda! I know we live in the south, but damn! Atleast BOS has only 10.3 inches as of today, but I'm sure they will find away to double that by tomorrow night! There's always a hope for 3/1/09 redux! :(

Yeah man weather is a bummer sometimes especially when you are more in the know then the average person. I am pulling for to get a surprise inch or so sometime within the next week man!

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  On 2/5/2016 at 1:38 AM, Brick Tamland said:

I am not a big BMX fan, but even I know who he is. Probably the most famous rider of all time.

 

Along with Mat Hoffman, Ryan Nyquist.  Mat has a bit more name since he's been involved in all kinds of stuff from Jackass to shows with Travis Pastrana etc.

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Sorry for the seemingly stupid ....

 

Been in litigation and no chance to look.

 

Did quick peek at 3 GFS runs (6, 12, & 18) a short while ago and all the 20's and cold down here are gone; quick peek on the Board and complaints about those same runs focused on differing variables.

 

What happened? For real or a few bad runs?

 

Any input appreciated and will check back in later.

 

Best,

 

Phil

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  On 2/5/2016 at 2:31 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Orlando hasnt even had a freeze this year. I'm pretty sure they usually get at least one or two freezes a year don't they ?

not in Orlando - different world, but yes we've had a few and a snow shower that lasted 2 hours

 

but that's past tense ....

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  On 2/5/2016 at 2:29 AM, pcbjr said:

Sorry for the seemingly stupid ....

 

Been in litigation and no chance to look.

 

Did quick peek at 3 GFS runs (6, 12, & 18) a short while ago and all the 20's and cold down here are gone; quick peek on the Board and complaints about those same runs focused on differing variables.

 

What happened? For real or a few bad runs?

 

Any input appreciated and will check back in later.

 

Best,

 

Phil

 

From 18z yesterday, low temps for Gainesville:

18z 29, 00z 31, 06z 29, 12z 31, 18z 31

 

So take it for what it's worth, 00z will be back to 29. haha.

 

The HP is nowhere close to being modeled correctly. Compare 18z GFS to 12z GFS and that's all you need to know. The GFS in particular seems to be having trouble with the cold. So is the Euro, though. I wouldn't write off upper 20's yet.

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  On 2/5/2016 at 2:55 AM, Jon said:

From 18z yesterday, low temps for Gainesville:

18z 29, 00z 31, 06z 29, 12z 31, 18z 31

 

So take it for what it's worth, 00z will be back to 29. haha.

 

The HP is nowhere close to being modeled correctly. Compare 18z GFS to 12z GFS and that's all you need to know. The GFS in particular seems to be having trouble with the cold. I wouldn't write off 20's yet.

Thanks Jon!

 

No time to look lately - it's been and is my version of "rotation".

 

GFS was as low as 23/25 a couple days ago, and extended 20's for about 5 nights (MeteoStar, but honestly that's all the time I've had).

 

I'll look earnestly tomorrow night and probably kick myself for asking "stupid" - but hey, there's plenty of that going around!

 

Thanks again!

 

Phil

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  On 2/5/2016 at 3:00 AM, pcbjr said:

Thanks Jon!

No time to look lately - it's been and is my version of "rotation".

GFS was as low as 23/25 a couple days ago, and extended 20's for about 5 nights (MeteoStar, but honestly that's all the time I've had).

I'll look earnestly tomorrow night and probably kick myself for asking "stupid" - but hey, there's plenty of that going around!

Thanks again!

Phil

No prob. No shame in MeteoStar, it's probably more accurate than my numbers I gave you. Some of those early super cold runs you can probably toss, most likely will see a middle of the road solution. GEFS based analogs from CIPS continue to trend colder, which is interesting as its not backing off. We will see what tomorrow's runs bring....but the signal for deep cold in the SE was there on 1/26, doubt it changes too much now.
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  On 2/5/2016 at 3:08 AM, superjames1992 said:

The models can't get a handle on the weekend coastal until the current system moves offshore.

Just thought I'd get that nugget of weenieism out there. ;)

(No, I don't actually believe that.)

Not sure I've posted in either storm thread, can't remember. Maybe I did about the s/w being sampled and a goose being cooked? That shows my optimism. Haha.
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