ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Sure does. Kinda funny actually. The SNE crew was kind of asleep at the wheel and this one snuck up on them while they were looking towards next week. They'll probably whine their way to an average snow winter. Maybe if we try real hard we'll whine our way to a March 1888 redux and average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 I wonder how far NW this thing can get, downstream ridging looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I wonder how far NW this thing can get, downstream ridging looks pretty impressive. It is definitely trending NW as maybe the models catch up with the PNA spike. Today's models are almost comical...."How to torture ENY snow lovers." This latest series of 3 short waves dancing around us and taunting us. I like how the Tue storm on the 18Z GFS keeps the primary alive just long enough to leave us dry as the coastal can't throw any moisture our way. We've all been through rough patterns before but this is getting ridiculous lol. #minimeltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On a more positve note concerning the Tue storm....".HOWEVER THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR ALBANY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 0.2 TO 1 INCHWITH A MEAN AROUND 0.50 INCH FOR THE ENTIRE STORM." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm hoping to pull off an inch of snow tomorrow. I think my place east of the river has a better chance than the airport. I'm feeling slightly more optimistic about Tuesday. I looks like guidance is starting to show a little run to run consistency. Nothing's hitting us hard at the moment, but it has the look of a possible moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 It is definitely trending NW as maybe the models catch up with the PNA spike. Today's models are almost comical...."How to torture ENY snow lovers." This latest series of 3 short waves dancing around us and taunting us. I like how the Tue storm on the 18Z GFS keeps the primary alive just long enough to leave us dry as the coastal can't throw any moisture our way. We've all been through rough patterns before but this is getting ridiculous lol. #minimeltdown Yeah It's pretty comical at this point.. and to think I was annoyed last year after receiving 70"+. I'm putting all my eggs in Tuesdays basket.. really hoping for the trough to dig as far west as possible and not broaden too much since the orientation is pretty important as the vortmax pinwheels. The long wave trough orientation kind of reminds me of December 31, 2000, but obviously that's not happening. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f102.gif http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2000/123006.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah It's pretty comical at this point.. and to think I was annoyed last year after receiving 70"+. I'm putting all my eggs in Tuesdays basket.. really hoping for the trough to dig as far west as possible and not broaden too much since the orientation is pretty important as the vortmax pinwheels. The long wave trough orientation kind of reminds me of December 31, 2000, but obviously that's not happening. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f102.gif http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2000/123006.png Tuesday's basket is looking pretty empty....maybe just 1 small piece of stale candy on the bottom and a hairball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Tuesday's basket is looking pretty empty....maybe just 1 small piece of stale candy on the bottom and a hairball. Yeah, pretty crappy trend over the last 24 hours. Now the lead wave is not far off from getting pulled north, just needs to slow down a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Most guidance was a little too far NW with meaningful precip. this morning. Saw a few flurries in south, central Rensselaer county but not the .1-.2 inch QPF consensus from last night's short range meso models plus the Euro, CMC etc. Monday - Wednesday continues to look like a miss locally. First storm offshore to the east and the follow up energy to our south and then east. Still watching it. I think we're a little over a week away from the 1 year anniversary of the last 2" snowstorm at ALB. However there was a late March event that dropped .1" and then 1.9" on successive days. I don't remember if that was a single event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Most guidance was a little too far NW with meaningful precip. this morning. Saw a few flurries in south, central Rensselaer county but not the .1-.2 inch QPF consensus from last night's short range meso models plus the Euro, CMC etc. Monday - Wednesday continues to look like a miss locally. First storm offshore to the east and the follow up energy to our south and then east. Still watching it. I think we're a little over a week away from the 1 year anniversary of the last 2" snowstorm at ALB. However there was a late March event that dropped .1" and then 1.9" on successive days. I don't remember if that was a single event. Had nothing more than a few flurries here as well. There was some measurable about 5 miles south, but nothing substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Had nothing more than a few flurries here as well. There was some measurable about 5 miles south, but nothing substantial. Yesterdays' Euro, GFS, UK, CMC, and SREFs brought nearly .5 liquid to the mid hudson valley at the apex of the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 The event on Friday narrowly missed, the Monday bomb will not only miss but set the table for a Tuesday redeveloper miss, and the main instability/low-level convergence snow showers will likely miss south on Wednesday. Beyond that there's nothing within 7 days worth tracking unless you get excited about subzero temperatures and bare ground. Also, I can't remember the last time I witnessed +SN, but it's likely been over a year. On a positive note, there's still 6 more weeks to avoid breaking the record that every winter weather enthusiast in eastern NY has been dreading since 1913. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Maybe a few hours of -SN tomorrow evening if the remnants of the trowal/deformation can push this far west. I'd consider that a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Maybe a few hours of -SN tomorrow evening if the remnants of the trowal/deformation can push this far west. I'd consider that a win. I was just about to post about that. The mesos show this feature best. Several of the individual SREF members hit it pretty hard up the HV or even out into CNY. The precipitation associated with trowals can be poorly modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I was just about to post about that. The mesos show this feature best. Several of the individual SREF members hit it pretty hard up the HV or even out into CNY. The precipitation associated with trowals can be poorly modeled. Yeah especially with bombing lows so wouldn't be surprised to see it throw light precip pretty far west, unfortunately at that point the best dynamics are well east and moisture is rather limited. I'd love to get in on the norlun type stuff on Tuesday but as currently progged the trough is digging a little too much so it scoots out beneath us.. but those are poorly modeled as well hah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Just about all guidance has converged on a multi-day total of nothing. Or basically nothing. I feel like this has been well telegraphed since the end of last week. The upslope regions could do slightly better. So now we look for a surprise meso band to drop an inch or two. There are several different periods when this could happen, starting this afternoon and extending until Thurs. morning or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Just about all guidance has converged on a multi-day total of nothing. Or basically nothing. The period of "nothing" started in November. This has been a dreadful winter, the worst in my 20+ years in upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Just about all guidance has converged on a multi-day total of nothing. Or basically nothing. I feel like this has been well telegraphed since the end of last week. The upslope regions could do slightly better. So now we look for a surprise meso band to drop an inch or two. There are several different periods when this could happen, starting this afternoon and extending until Thurs. morning or so. The HRRR is trying to throw 0.2" liquid back to ALB, maybe closer to 0.25" where you are. 2-3" is an over performer this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The HRRR is trying to throw 0.2" liquid back to ALB, maybe closer to 0.25" where you are. 2-3" is an over performer this winter. That would be huge. Radar looks like there's some snow in the hills. I'll know later this evening when I head home. No confirmation yet that it overcame the dry air. I'm still skeptical that the valley can get more than light snow/flurries going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Looks like a bit over an inch in East Poestenkill. That's a win! Pretty uniform area wide from what I could tell. Pockets of moderate snow in Latham and Menands as I was driving home. Much lighter now. It seems a lot of people forgot how to drive in the snow. Accidents everywhere. Some decent bands of snow to our south. I wonder if they work their way up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Looks like a bit over an inch in East Poestenkill. That's a win! Pretty uniform area wide from what I could tell. Pockets of moderate snow in Latham and Menands as I was driving home. Much lighter now. It seems a lot of people forgot how to drive in the snow. Accidents everywhere. Some decent bands of snow to our south. I wonder if they work their way up here. Nice, closer to 1/2" of dust here. For the short term guidance to verify the stuff to the south would have to push through. I wouldn't be suprised to see it weaken if it moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 1" here and snowing nicely. My biggest storm this winter!!!! I missed the 12/29 massive 2" snow and sleet dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 1" here and snowing nicely. My biggest storm this winter!!!! I missed the 12/29 massive 2" snow and sleet dump. A little over 1" here now, It was nice to have snow in the air for several hours at least. All that model watching last week for 1".. hah pretty much sums up our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I measured about 1.5" in Clifton Park. About 2.5" in the hills east of town. Everything looks pretty. It was hard to fully enjoy though since it occurred during the commute and then overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Fresh coating on the car. Moderate snow all the way down by the river. Radar looks nice. It looks like several periods of light snow are possible from now until tomorrow night, with some embedded moderate snow if we're lucky. I imagine a few lucky spots could accumulate a couple inches. Radar watching time. Or better, just go out and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Fresh coating on the car. Moderate snow all the way down by the river. Radar looks nice. It looks like several periods of light snow are possible from now until tomorrow night, with some embedded moderate snow if we're lucky. I imagine a few lucky spots could accumulate a couple inches. Radar watching time. Or better, just go out and enjoy it. Yeah i've been out on a couple walks the past two evenings enjoying the wintery scene. Maybe we'll get a nice squall to come through tomorrow afternoon/eve to top it off. Looking ahead, the 18z GFS has H85 temps down to -34C at ALB on Sunday morning which would be pretty darn impressive. As far as snow goes, Monday and Tuesday of next week are definitely worth watching. It looks like many of the gfs/euro ensembles dig the trough negative tilt pretty quick with the surface reflection racing up the HV. Plenty of time for this to change but at least there's a strong signal for an event of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yeah i've been out on a couple walks the past two evenings enjoying the wintery scene. Maybe we'll get a nice squall to come through tomorrow afternoon/eve to top it off. Looking ahead, the 18z GFS has H85 temps down to -34C at ALB on Sunday morning which would be pretty darn impressive. As far as snow goes, Monday and Tuesday of next week are definitely worth watching. It looks like many of the gfs/euro ensembles dig the trough negative tilt pretty quick with the surface reflection racing up the HV. Plenty of time for this to change but at least there's a strong signal for an event of some sort. Moderate snow here with some pretty gusty winds.. some of these squalls mean business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Moderate snow here with some pretty gusty winds.. some of these squalls mean business. The sun's out where I am. But I can see billowing clouds on the horizon like a summertime squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Nice squalls today, however slightly above freezing temps didn't allow any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 The 00z GFS looks pretty appetizing.. basically the perfect track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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