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GHD III Winter Storm February 1st-3rd (Part 2)


Powerball

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Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - won't matter.  GFS has ben consistent with this thing 7 days out.

 

Kind of like me in summer fighting those storms that came down the lake...  Thought it was a bust, then poof - models were right.

Really would be squabbling over 100 mile swings with this storm. Which given the sharp gradient in snow amounts has a bigger impact on sensible weather. If the low tracks over Dubuque as the GFS showed on Frdays nights 00Z run it pulled a minor win. If it goes over Chicago or just north it's a minor loss. All in all most modeling did well as we sit today. Of course, there is usually a surprise twist.

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I slept horrible last night because of this storm. I need a SE swing to get me back in the game. 

I definitely wouldn't be losing sleep over a storm. The storm occludes to fast then we get dry slotted to see any real action, this is a plains and Central UP (to some extent) storm. Some areas should see some pretty good blizzard conditions which is good for them considering how ****ty this winter really has been.

 

With that being said Northern Mi will still get a solid 3-6" from front end then with a little Lake Enhancement and some minor LES on the back end deformation as well.

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We really are. We won't get a big dog, but this could be our biggest event since we both moved here. I'll take it.

That high north of the border stays west enough to allow the low to come at us on the NAM

 

Just watching things at 500mb...the closed low has shifted farther west and is stronger...its not just the NAM doing it either.

 

Anyways...12z NAM with .60-.70" qpf across most of the metro.

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Actually, kind of glad the snow is missing us.  Not thrilled with the rain end of things either.  However, I just wasn't feeling this one.   Just get me on to spring. This winter has been such a pain....nothing worthwhile to get excited about.  Just one question:  For the season, Dec, Jan, Feb, are we below average as far as the amount of sunshine goes?  Seems like cloudy, miserable days have outnumbered sunny ones by quite a bit, or, at least, that is my perception. 

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well, I see the GFS joined the NAM train on this one. even the Canadian Regional also seems to go along with the idea. if this trend holds up, I see myself being spotlighted at the plant in Cottage Grove, asked questions about the storm when I head in tonight. time to think decent shovels.

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We are trying so hard to reel this one in.

 

Looks like you guys got it.

It's been a really long time since eastern Nebraska has had a big snow, so I'm glad for them there too.

 

For reference this was the GFS solution 10 days ago. Run before this was flatter.

It became really consistent about day 7.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

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I can foresee Waterloo, Iowa being downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory based on the trends. As for here, it's going to be a boring cold rain here.

 

RGEM gives you and hawk 4-5hrs of heavy snow tomorrow morning before dry slot/drizzle moves in.  Would probably add up pretty good.  Even has this area see a brief period of heavy snow and sleet before quickly changing to rain. 

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Saw that too but feel like those secondary/backside areas never seem to happen as well as modeled 

 

I think it was after the main synoptic snow went through on GHDB I that this area got underneath the ULL for a time. Also happened at the end of the New Years Blizzard of 99 too.

 

I flipped through the models quickly and each have that ULL snow passing through N IL and/or SE WI.

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