weatherbo Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 12-18"... Ok! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 12-18"... Ok! image.jpg Show off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 NAM slightly south so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 0° 850 mb line in IL was a good 40 miles further south at hour 36. Instead of Cook County it was near IKK. Less rain here that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The heaviest snow definitely nudged southeast a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 4km nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The heaviest snow definitely nudged southeast a bit. Colder 850mb levels did the trick. PW maps skimping on the southern edge snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 NWS here is pretty set on 8 to 10 inches...probably a pretty solid call at this point...models have almost all been in that range up until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Colder 850mb levels did the trick. PW maps skimping on the southern edge snowfall amounts. They sure are! Why are they showing barely anything, while the ones you're posting on here show a couple inches on the southern fringe? Algorithms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 They sure are! Why are they showing barely anything, while the ones you're posting on here show a couple inches on the southern fringe? Algorithms? Tropicaltidbits maps are straight 10:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 TT's 4K NAM map gives Chicago to up here 3 to 5 inches, while PW's gives nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Needless to say, there is a definite southeast trend in the models so far with the 00Z runs. Mt. Geos to the rescue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 00Z RGEM on TT map would put Milwaukee in the jackpot area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Congrats to the people who are going to get slammed by this! At least somewhere in the Midwest is getting some action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 This is looking to me like more of a dynamic cooling situation. For those of us on the edge, hope for some heavier precip. rates to bring down the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Looks like GFS came a touch SE with snowfall which is odd given where the slp tracks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Still some big differences aloft between NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Tropicaltidbits maps are straight 10:1 ratio TT are only 10:1, but they are higher resolution. I think the GFS will cave to the more SE tracks by 12z tomorrow. I think it's clear slightly weaker and southeast is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Their location of the low is only like 200 miles apart.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 TT are only 10:1, but they are higher resolution. I think the GFS will cave to the more SE tracks by 12z tomorrow. I think it's clear slightly weaker and southeast is the way to go. Agree weaker is looking likely downtick in snow around here is evident and blizzard conditions looking much less likely. My only point is the southern flank of the tropicaltidbits maps are likely over done especially considering surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Agree weaker is looking likely downtick in snow around here is evident and blizzard conditions looking much less likely. My only point is the southern flank of the tropicaltidbits maps are likely over done especially considering surface temps O, definitely are. Whoever can manage to hang onto 32° the longest, while avoiding the warm tongue aloft could score some really good snow in a short period of time. Kind of like how 2/7/13 was here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 CMC CMC made the biggest move in track in this local region. Was through Chicago, now down in NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 And, oddly enough, it cut back on snow on the southern fringe. While the GFS expanded it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 And, oddly enough, it cut back on snow on the southern fringe. While the GFS expanded it a bit. Thats because the ggem is a weak turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 And, oddly enough, it cut back on snow on the southern fringe. While the GFS expanded it a bit. Coming down to a now cast event again. lol Guess you have to pick a map and run with it I guess. I don't envy MKX, DVN, or GRR right now. ARX and GRB are a piece of cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Thats because the ggem is a weak turd Well then....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The 00z UK is as far nw as any model with the snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The UKMET took the low via Mexico and the Big Bend area, so something is screwy with it. Models didn't seem too excited about the upper air data tonight, so I would throw anything beyond the GFS track as on outlier now. Most of Iowa gets snow now. Would be pretty sweet being being on the receiving end of the convective band in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 EURO goes from central CO, to almost Abilene, TX, to Keokuk, IA within 48 hours. Almost like the UKMET in terms of dipping really far south. I'll take an order of e8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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