cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The TT map is averaged precip type over the past 6 hours. So in a situation where the rain/snow line is retreating north, it's going to show snow farther south than an instantaneous map like the other site. Ah, gotcha. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 What is the url for the other CMC website? I can't seem to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 What is the url for the other CMC website? I can't seem to find it. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Thank you. Did a loop of that model run and it shows me getting very heavy snow, then dry slot for a few hours and then back to snow. As with the other models, it has the low going right over Chicago. EDIT: 12z GEFS has the low going over Chicago, which is no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Amazing how the GEM won't budge on the southern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Amazing how the GEM won't budge on the southern solution. It's playing catchup. Been creeping north the last couple of runs. Definitely budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 My snowfall call of 5-6 inches might be looking good, although it'll be extremely wet in nature. Also, very good likelihood that Cedar Falls will get their THIRD 10+ inch storm this season. EDIT: EURO shows the low passing just north of Chicago, just as the 12z GFS was showing. I guess it's good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 FWIW the GEM sniffed out the colder solution first; complete with accurate sleet accumulations, with the post Christmas storm. Pretty much every model over did the WAA. There was a couple EURO ensemble members that had some snowfall maps that looked like the GGEM. Edit: New track map. Great consistency for a south of KC low passage. All track out of WI now, GFS close. UKMET data missing after it leaves KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Would it be unrealistic for the low to track about 75 to 100 miles farther southeast than what is forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Thunder chances look ok for Tuesday/Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Last 4 snow maps from GEM - Definitely came north between Sat 0z and Sat 12z. However, heaviest snow areas seem to have stablized the last two runs. Fringe snows continue to creep north though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 B Watches up... Do we have any posters in western and/or Nothern IA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Here's last 4 GFS snow maps (0z and 12z for GEM comparison sake). MBY has been drifting in and out of the heavier snows, every other run. Hate being on the fringe! My gut tells me this is going to end up like the late December storm - we'll get about 5-6" and there will be 14" totals 15-30 miles to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I hope this moves in later Tues morning so i can get my kids to school...the wind looks like it could be a major pain in the butt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Would it be unrealistic for the low to track about 75 to 100 miles farther southeast than what is forecasted? 50 would not be unheard of this close in. Probably not that far. The baroclinic zone position would have to end up further south. Nelson, I think your area is the mostly snow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Looks like it came south a tad. None of the real impressive totals are showing up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 18z and 12z NAM snow bands Convection is aiding in dragging the surface low east along I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 That thing really peters out as it moves NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Convection looks to be robbing some of the cold sector precip. Seems to be the reason the low books it between MCI and IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indeedinger Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 B Watches up... Do we have any posters in western and/or Nothern IA? I'm 20 mi E of Waterloo. 10 mi from the Blizzard Watch. Looks good for a big snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 RGEM 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'm 20 mi E of Waterloo. 10 mi from the Blizzard Watch. Looks good for a big snow here. Goodluck and enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Blizzard Watch updated. Removed a few lines of counties on southeast edge and replaced with Winter Storm Watch. Seems like it's due to mid-day dry slot before filling back in. Interesting. Edit: Maybe not wholly accurate. Seems they're thinking winds in my area will be just below blizzard criteria. I have a feeling this will change by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Once the storm passes Iowa... it turns into a clipper lvl snow maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 RGEM continuing to stay south of other guidance. At this point, I think 0Z will finally put some more certainty around this. Sounds like it will be fully sampled by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 RGEM continuing to stay south of other guidance. At this point, I think 0Z will finally put some more certainty around this. Sounds like it will be fully sampled by then. GFS didn't budge to speak of. Yeah, Upper level data still not in. NAM models in close sync, along with the RGEM so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 GFS budged enough NW to get rid of that extreme gradient IMBY. Shows 6"+. I'd take that. The model runs tonight will be entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I can't believe with the Low tracking through Indy and Toledo that we still can't manage over an inch of snow up here from the system. Rain today, rain Tuesday, and now our lake effect potential looks bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I can't believe with the Low tracking through Indy and Toledo that we still can't manage over an inch of snow up here from the system. Rain today, rain Tuesday, and now our lake effect potential looks bleak. Models are showing a slightly above freezing layer for you just above 850mb. If somehow they are overplaying it, then you could get some snow - If southern track could be pulled off. MKX mentions the southern fringe in their discussion. .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE KEY MODEL RUN MAY VERY WELL BE TONIGHT`S 00Z RUN AS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE FULLY SAMPLED. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A TRICKY FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PRECIP IN PARTS OF SRN AND ERN WI. THE CURRENT NW/SE SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA STILL LOOKS OK. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT WATCH AREA ATTM. TRACK OF KEY SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES SUPPORTS GOING OUTLINED AREA OF CONCERN. STILL A ZONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WATCH AREA SINCE LATER RUNS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND COLDER SOLUTION...AS THE 12Z GEM IS STILL SHOWING...THOUGH KEY UPPER FEATURES FROM THIS MODEL WOULD FAVOR A MORE NW PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS LAID OUT BY THE ECMWF AND ESP THE GFS. PER COLLAB WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR NOW. THE 500 MILLIBAR VORT/850 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERS AND POSITIONING OF 200-300 MILLIBAR JET CORRIDORS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK. 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A WARMING OF 850 TEMPS INTO THE SRN AND ERN CWA AS WELL WITH 850 LOW RIDING NEWD THROUGH THE CWA. LOOKING AT PROJECTED TRACKS OF THE 850 LOW ACROSS SRN WI AND WITH A SEEMINGLY MORE LIKELY NORTHWARD SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS NE IL INTO FAR SE WI AND LWR MI...THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST DEF ZONE SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW 1/3 OF OF THE CWA. THIS AREA ALSO GETS CLIPPED BY NORTHERN HALF OF CLOSED 700 MILLIBAR LOW CENTER FOR A TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DECENT SLUG OF ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION AT THE OUTSET ON TUESDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE FORCING ACROSS THE MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTED 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO PIVOT A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN IN PARTS OF SRN WI WHILE FAVORING THE NORTHERN CWA TO REMAIN ALL SNOW. LIGHTER DEF ZONE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. THERE IS CONCERN FOR THE NORTH AS WELL WHERE A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT COULD BRIEFLY PLAY HAVOC WITH PRECIP TYPES AND SNOW AMOUNTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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