Powerball Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Quite the sucker punch there by the NAM (00z vs. 12z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Even with the NAM's more southerly track...thermals looks putrid out ahead of it. No front-end thump to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Well, I can bet that students at ISU and UNI might be looking at a snowday on Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Noticeable jump NW with the snowfall on the 12z NAM. The southern outlier might finally be catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Even with the NAM's more southerly track...thermals looks putrid out ahead of it. No front-end thump to be seen. wisconsinwx gets in on a "OK" front-end thump, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 wisconsinwx gets in on a "OK" font-end thump, but that's about it. Yeah, sorry, I meant for areas of east of the eventual sfc low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Noticeable jump NW with the snowfall on the 12z NAM. The southern outlier might finally be catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 So close to the bullseye and also the rain/snow line for me. Like pulling teeth at this point over the next day for me. One local met thinking the dry slot might work over much of central/southern Iowa based on their internal model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 GFS still the most NW at this point. Snow did come further into SE WI than the last two runs though. CMC a little faster, a little east. Near Decatur by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 very slight jog to the SE, compared to 0Z, but essentially the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Hawkeye and Nate are right on the line on the 12z GFS. That's one hell of a cutoff lol. Glad we know we're out of it here, as I don't know if I could take being that close. Good luck to you guys to the northwest. Jonbo, you are gonna get smoked there. DLL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Hawkeye and Nate are right on the line on the 12z GFS. That's one hell of a cutoff lol. Glad we know we're out of it here, as I don't know if I could take being that close. Good luck to you guys to the northwest. Jonbo, you are gonna get smoked there. DLL as well. What would be really interesting is if I got 6 inches of snow while my place of work only got an inch! That would really be something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 NAM 12km seems to jive with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Cyclone, how are you getting counties on your TT maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Cyclone, how are you getting counties on your TT maps? pick a region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Hawkeye and Nate are right on the line on the 12z GFS. That's one hell of a cutoff lol. Glad we know we're out of it here, as I don't know if I could take being that close. Good luck to you guys to the northwest. Jonbo, you are gonna get smoked there. DLL as well. It's more likely I'll stay in the sweet spot but my confidence levels dropped this morning seeing that gradient inch closer to me and knowing there's still a little over a day to go with the models. I blame the in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Surprisingly good agreement on this. For the past two days we have basically been sweating a 50 mile run to run wiggle, with the exception of the one off outlier. Compared to what we have seen this winter, the bullseye has wavered surprisingly little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Surprisingly good agreement on this. For the past two days we have basically been sweating a 50 mile run to run wiggle, with the exception of the one off outlier. Compared to what we have seen this winter, the bullseye has wavered surprisingly little. I agree. Models have done very well with this. It's amazing how much better models are now in comparison to even 5 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 It's more likely I'll stay in the sweet spot but my confidence levels dropped this morning seeing that gradient inch closer to me and knowing there's still a little over a day to go with the models. I blame the in me. Oh I definitely understand. Sometimes when you've been in the main threat area you can get a little paranoid about something happening to change things. For the most part the models have been pegging the northwest 2/3rd of IA for 4-5 days. This is looking like a slam dunk to me in the Omaha to La Crosse corridor. Easily a nice 8-12" with isolated higher amounts kind of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 NAM 12km seems to jive with the GFS Little more generous with the front end snows. 4km NAM agrees as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 pick a region AHHHH! Learn something new everyday. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Surprisingly good agreement on this. For the past two days we have basically been sweating a 50 mile run to run wiggle, with the exception of the one off outlier. Compared to what we have seen this winter, the bullseye has wavered surprisingly little. Yep, if you take a step back and look at everything at a higher level, your comments are spot on. The funny part is that with this sub, 50 miles one way or the other makes or breaks it for a number of people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Thinking the snowfall on the GEM is overdone on the TT site. They definitely have a different precip type algorithm than the collaboration/cmc site. Here's a comparison of both of them at 18z Tue. Rain/snow line is much further north on the collaboration/cmc site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 What the... It must have colder mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Thinking the snowfall on the GEM is overdone on the TT site. They definitely have a different precip type algorithm than the collaboration/cmc site. Here's a comparison of both of them at 18z Tue. Rain/snow line is much further north on the collaboration/cmc site. And a nasty dry slot at that (on the CMC site)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Thinking the snowfall on the GEM is overdone on the TT site. They definitely have a different precip type algorithm than the collaboration/cmc site. Here's a comparison of both of them at 18z Tue. Rain/snow line is much further north on the collaboration/cmc site. The TT map is averaged precip type over the past 6 hours. So in a situation where the rain/snow line is retreating north, it's going to show snow farther south than an instantaneous map like the other site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Sigh...I can always hold out hope that the Canadian is right..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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