Hoosier Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yep! Will be interesting to see if Euro follows suit. Think it's realistic, Hoosier? I'd like to see a colder antecedent airmass. But I guess the transition to mix or rain could be slower to unfold if precip rates are heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Can someone post the GGEM snowfall map please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Can someone post the GGEM snowfall map please? I did above. CMC and GEM are the same, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I did above. CMC and GEM are the same, I believe. Oh ok. I didn't know that the CMC wad the GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I did above. CMC and GEM are the same, I believe. Yep the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'd love it if the GEM scenario worked out. We already had a warning criteria snow back in Nov, so I'd be perfectly content in getting a 2-3" type snow for the first time since Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Oh ok. I didn't know that the CMC wad the GGEM... It can get a little confusing with all the different Acronyms and References. Looks like all of Iowa is going to do pretty well. Omaha, NE too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Looks like the UKMET takes the low to about Gary, IN. I didn't see the 12z run so don't know what the track of that was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Geos made this map from earlier runs today. It sounds the Ukie may be similar to the 12Z EURO run? Which he put in purple... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 For the people in the warm sector, even if the marginal SVR doesn't verify: -We will still have high gusts in the showers/rain, like in December. -A flash freeze for a good chunk of the rained on areas seems reasonable, which will screw up the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 It's more on a track from Emporia, KS to Gary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Geos made this map from earlier runs today. It sounds the Ukie may be similar to the 12Z EURO run? Which he put in purple... Was just about to do an update on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Great, Geos! I love your passion for this kind of stuff. Sounds like the Ukie is somewhat farther southeast than some of the others. Probably going towards Flint/Pontiac areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 EURO 994 mb west of Wichita Falls, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Now it's near Champaign at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I got no chance on the cold side, save a ROAB miracle, bring on the jet and some CAPE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Just waiting for the wunderground EURO maps to load then I can complete my map. Definitely a trend and a narrowing down of a track. NAM is the east outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 000z GEFS just in has low center slightly west of Euro. So now we have the GEFS NAM, 12km NAM, GEM and EURO colder and with track south east of the GFS. I think if we did a composite of the GEM, GEFS and EURO we would have center passing near south bend IN. More front end snow for many if that happens and hopefully a solid snow for southern WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Strange euro run to say the least. SLP hops over to Hillsdale and then resumes it's course to the ne to the tip of the thumb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 A line from Milwaukee to Janesville to Iowa City stays at or below freezing during the whole storm this time. There's our tracks. Red: 12km NAM, Yellow: 4km NAM, Green: GFS, Purple: EURO, Orange: UKMET, Blue: CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 So the CMC is a good example of how we could still get some decent snow with a farther NW track. How about the DGEX and the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Strange euro run to say the least. SLP hops over to Hillsdale and then resumes it's course to the ne to the tip of the thumb.. I actually believe it now as it is pulled east with convection that passes through here. Still erratic but erratic with reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Well here is the JMA. Hard to tell the exact location of the SLP. Actually the DGEX is out of range now. Wouldn't be worth plotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Hmmm...JMA definitely NW of where it was before. But that's not hard compared to where it was...lol Looks like it goes from Springfield area up to GR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Hmmm...JMA definitely NW of where it was before. But that's not hard compared to where it was...lol Looks like it goes from Springfield area up to GR? Something like that. Goofed on the UK MET track. It did go east. Let me fix that. The track is buried in amongst every other one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Compromise track over Chicago still way to go. In a normal winter, with a retreating arctic high would have been a good front end thumper for my neck of the woods. Nice Madison storm just like the old days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Even though the 6z GFS utterly screws me over (and much of central and eastern Iowa), it still nets me 3 inches of snow. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Even though the 6z GFS utterly screws me over (and much of central and eastern Iowa), it still nets me 3 inches of snow. Better than nothing. GFS is an outlier at this point. Today's 12Z runs should begin to tell the tale. If other models capitulate. I still think CR is in decent shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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