Baum Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The NAM is sniffing the southeast elongated piece of junk slide once more. This winters model of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 so is it safe to say that the GFS nailed the track early on but that all models were off on qpf amounts? Talk to us on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The NAM is sniffing the southeast elongated piece of junk slide once more. This winters model of choice. The differences aloft between it and the GFS are crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 not trying to mandate anything since i'm just a lurker but can we talk about severe in the designated thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47771-february-2nd-2016-severe-weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The NAM is sniffing the southeast elongated piece of junk slide once more. This winters model of choice. Yep! I'd atleast rather take a few inches of snow than 40s and pouring rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The differences aloft between it and the GFS are crazy. Gotta be honest, I was expecting the NAM to trend toward the other guidance. It's still not good enough here and I hate putting full trust in it but maybe a shred of hope for some of you guys just to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Gotta be honest, I was expecting the NAM to trend toward the other guidance. It's still not good enough here and I hate putting full trust in it but maybe a shred of hope for some of you guys just to my north. Was just talking to Caplan and said the same thing, was expecting it to trend towards the GFS but it got even weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Gotta be honest, I was expecting the NAM to trend toward the other guidance. It's still not good enough here and I hate putting full trust in it but maybe a shred of hope for some of you guys just to my north. Hope flickers anew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ramsey saying snow to mix to rain, then back to a little snow for Chicago proper. He did stress it could produce more snow. One snapshot that I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The GFS has next to no CAPE up here but I'm sure it's going to be warmer in the warm sector than the GFS shows. So it'll be interesting to watch the NAM. 750 MUCAPE is certainly plenty. Yeah the GFS is blowing the boundary layer with this one. It isn't going to be this cool in the warm sector not with that strong of advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ramsey saying snow to mix to rain, then back to a little snow for Chicago proper. He did stress it could produce more snow. One snapshot that I got. RPMmodel013016.png Ramsey forecast like playing the powerball. Been ignoring it for close to 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ramsey forecast like playing the powerball. Been ignoring it for close to 30 years. Haha true. Just wanted to show the RPM. Looks like a southern version of the GFS. It almost sounded like he wants snow. Anyways - The GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 A good 75 miles back to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised if the 6z GFS is slightly to the southeast. Anyways, I'll take what I get from this storm. EDIT: My call for accumulation from this storm for here is about 5-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Magnet working already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Not for Michigan. It's tilted soooooo far to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Baby stepped SE. 6" line is about 35 miles further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 It still has a couple days to keep moving southeast. Hopefully this is the SE trend commencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Magnet working already Not this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 There will not be any pronounced SE trend unless the lead wave is stronger. That lead wave was initially going to lay out a favorable baroclinic zone for my area even. Now with a weaker lead wave that possibility is zilch. When the Euro and GFS basically agree it's game on/over depending on your location generally. I'm not holding out much hope here in my area. And the seasonal trend has been to cut these lows right up over Eastern Iowa/northern Illinois. Let's see what he Euro does later tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 CMC. 995mb over SPI. Slightly southeast and 1 mb weaker than 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 It looks like the models may be pulling more cold air closer to the actual Low center, allowing for snow to come farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Chicagoland gets several hours of snow on the front end on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 It looks like the models may be pulling more cold air closer to the actual Low center, allowing for snow to come farther south. The GGEM is doing that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Comparing the 12Z run of the Canadian to the 00Z run, you can clearly see the snow farther south in IL and MI this run. Doesn't look as strong and wound up the farther east it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The GGEM is doing that for sure. Yep! Will be interesting to see if Euro follows suit. Think it's realistic, Hoosier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 GGEM gives me about 1-2" and then gets near 50 degrees later on. I've seen the reverse happen but can't remember something like the model is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I guess if the cold and warm are wrapped tightly close to the low center it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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