Hoosier Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 About that time for Geos to turn that magnet on 1000 Tesla couldn't reel this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I turned it on, will see if it has an effect by the 0z runs. Meanwhile; I got bored, and I wanted to see a map with all the major models including the EURO, so I drew one to the best of my ability. Green: 18z GFS, Blue: 12z GGEM, Red: 18z 12km NAM, Yellow: 18z 4km NAM, and Purple: 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Congrats hm8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 MPX mentioning blizzard watches over winter storm watches in its afternoon discussion. Of course that would be for south and east of the twin cities... But what else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Milwaukee/Sullivan: O HERE ARE A FEW THOUGHTS ON HOW THINGS LOOK FOR US IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONSIDERING THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. KEEP IN MIND THAT ALL THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE IF THE LOW TRACK SHIFTS. FIRST OF ALL...WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...PREVIOUS RESEARCH SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST SWATH IS TYPICALLY FOUND ALONG AND NEAR THE 700 MB LOW TRACK. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THIS LOW THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR SERVICE AREA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A DARLINGTON...TO MADISON...TO FOND DU LAC LINE. DRY SLOTTING...OR A LAYER OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...COULD SERVE TO LIMIT TOTALS SOMEWHAT SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS. A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE ILLINOIS BORDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS ALL SNOW AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POWERFUL AND DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THESE WINDS FALL SHORT OF OUR LOCAL BLIZZARD CRITERIA / WINDS SUSTAINED OR GUSTING TO 35 MPH OR GREATER / BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TO SUMMARIZE...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS LIKELY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHICH AREAS WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR SERVICE AREA MAY BE THE MOST IMPACTED. ADDITIONAL DETAILS FROM THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL RUNS WILL ALLOW US TO FINE TUNE THIS FORECAST. PLEASE KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY OR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Woah, didn't know it went through already. Woulda tried to make my first red tag post slightly more meteorological haha Thanks though Way to go HM8 !! Did you just graduate? What are you plans for the future ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Way to go HM8 !! Did you just graduate? What are you plans for the future ?Yep, graduated in December. Plan on attending graduate school in the fall, though I'm not sure where yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 warmth felt nice today, got to take the lil dude out bring on the boomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 congrats to HM8 as well, one of the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Another high resolution model coming in range. Very similar to the GGEM in terms of low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Woah, didn't know it went through already. Woulda tried to make my first red tag post slightly more meteorological haha Thanks though Congrats. I need to get my a*s in gear and pick up one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Love that Geos is doing all that he can to will this thing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Haha, you know me too well. RGEM is the most potent with the low in that spot over all the other models that I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Anyone read Skillin'g mini-meltdown rant against social media meteorologists this afternoon? http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/heres-why-run-to-run-gyrations-in-computer-model-storm-track-forecasts-are-granted-more-importance-than-should-be-the-case For those following the evolution of forecasts of the storm’s potential track as we get closer and closer to the event, run to run variations in each models handling of the storm track are followed closely days in advance and often the subject of often breathless speculation on social media about the significance these track shifts represent. It’s not unusual to have those producing the posts–and we, who read these posts have LITTLE IDEA what sort of meteorological backround these folks possess or their level of experience in forecasting complex winter storm scenarios—dismiss or actively embrace a storm threat days in advance. Since social media posts lend equal weight to nobel prize winning scientists and the avid hobbyists in terms of appearance, it’s hard to know for sure what sort of weight is to be attached to pronouncements which are made regarding the storm’s likely impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 EPS ensembles. That e7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 warmth felt nice today, got to take the lil dude out bring on the boomers .25 slush. Rain/fog. Drizzle. Cold Northwest winds. Flurries. U know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'm rooting for the north trend, maybe I can get a little severe action out of the deal Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'm rooting for the north trend, maybe I can get a little severe action out of the deal Tuesday evening.I'm hoping for some severe here too...GFS has a 70 knot 850mb jet. It won't take much CAPE to get a non-zero threat in the Ohio Valley as long as forcing with the front is strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'm rooting for the north trend, maybe I can get a little severe action out of the deal Tuesday evening. Maybe we can get a rumble of thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 FWIW: the FIM. I like how it is trying to bring the 2" line over towards me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Embrace the rain dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'm hoping for some severe here too...GFS has a 70 knot 850mb jet. It won't take much CAPE to get a non-zero threat in the Ohio Valley as long as forcing with the front is strong enough. Just saw the 18z NAM brought 750+ MUCAPE all the way up to central Indiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Just saw the 18z NAM brought 750+ MUCAPE all the way up to central Indiana...yeeshThat will be enough to get things working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Got a feeling in the end the track will settle back towards the southern end of Lake Michigan. Could be wrong though. 12km NAM quickened its pace. Chugging east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Just saw the 18z NAM brought 750+ MUCAPE all the way up to central Indiana...yeeshThe GFS has next to no CAPE up here but I'm sure it's going to be warmer in the warm sector than the GFS shows. So it'll be interesting to watch the NAM. 750 MUCAPE is certainly plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 I must admit, the turd polishing and straw grasping in this thread right now (between Geos trying to find any endorsement he can for snow in his backyard and the OH / IN folks rooting for what would be a minimal severe weather threat at best) is pretty entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Hmm... I tell you guys one thing, 999mb is nothing to write home about. Lack of a strong baroclinic zone is probably part of the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 It's ok to just accept this as crap. Pucker your lips together and make a raspberry with lots of spit on the monitor. File this one away under the category "turdarific" and move on. Assuming you want this in your backyard and your name isn't Bo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Haha, turdarific - I like it. It's unusual that the NAM isn't excited about a stronger solution at this range. First the lead wave died off and now this... 1002mb Could be a fluke trend to be reversed, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 so is it safe to say that the GFS nailed the track early on but that all models were off on qpf amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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