TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yeah there's is something fishy about that. It's not dry air causing it or warm temps. Should be showing at least a couple inches for us both. Yeah, the snowfall maps don't seem to follow what is being shown on the precip/radar maps. Plus, that is such crap if the Low moves from Indy to Toledo and we still don't get any snow. That is normally a great track for my area. Not this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Same up here. A nice dump then 2 weeks in the icebox w/ LES:) This needs refreshing...... [Equote name=TravisWx" post="3939360" timestamp="1454187246]Great scenario for my locale. NE winds may give us a boost for total snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 18z GFS gonna be on the move even more than 12z. Might be a wild run. NW and 4mb deeper through hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looks like DVN is throwing in the towel on this one for the QC points southeast. Still some decent potential from Iowa/Cedar Rapids northwest. I tend to agree at this point. The lead storm was modeled well down into the 980s on some of them a few nights ago, and now most barely drop it into the 990s. That has allowed the main storm to track more northwesterly. Since I'm guessing the models have a pretty decent handle on the lead storm, I'm pretty much throwing in the towel on this one. Looks like maybe a dusting before we switch to a cold/34 degree rainer. First call for here/QC <1" from front end snow/mix, and maybe a another dusting to a half inch on the tail end. Whatever we get on the front end will be long gone by the time the wrap around crap falls, so we'll pretty much continue the bare ground theme as we stroll deep into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 18z GFS WAAAY north than 12z. Basically puts much of Iowa in the rain area. Basically it closes the low in southwest Kansas. Big hit for MPX and La Crosse, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Sub 990 over Green Bay at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Sub 990 over Green Bay at 84 You guys might have to start worrying about ptype the way this is going lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 Couple days earlier and we could have had an interesting Iowa caucus... Congrats on the red tag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 Sub 990 over Green Bay at 84 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Well, good news is if it cuts as far northwest as the 18z GFS we have a shot at some thunder. I'll take that over 34 degrees and moderate rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 May as well root for this thing to go as far NW as possible. Jet streams just won't work for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 You guys might have to start worrying about ptype the way this is going lol. Lol....you shut your dirty mouth! Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looks like DVN is throwing in the towel on this one for the QC points southeast. Still some decent potential from Iowa/Cedar Rapids northwest. I tend to agree at this point. The lead storm was modeled well down into the 980s on some of them a few nights ago, and now most barely drop it into the 990s. That has allowed the main storm to track more northwesterly. Since I'm guessing the models have a pretty decent handle on the lead storm, I'm pretty much throwing in the towel on this one. Looks like maybe a dusting before we switch to a cold/34 degree rainer. First call for here/QC <1" from front end snow/mix, and maybe a another dusting to a half inch on the tail end. Whatever we get on the front end will be long gone by the time the wrap around crap falls, so we'll pretty much continue the bare ground theme as we stroll deep into Feb. Umm. To paraphrase a line in their discussion: models continue to be inconsistent and full sampling has yet been done. I don't think they've landed on a sure fire solution 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 18Z GFS quite similar to its 00Z run. Continues to creep north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Low comes out too fast on the GFS. High doesn't have a chance to head it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Well, good news is if it cuts as far northwest as the 18z GFS we have a shot at some thunder. I'll take that over 34 degrees and moderate rain showers. Also, Hooser might get some severe weather (damaging winds) if that verifies. Anyways, I don't really have much of any hope on this storm, especially of the other models follow suit with this big NW shift of the track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 Didn't December 2009 show up as an analog for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Didn't December 2009 show up as an analog for this storm? This looks more like a late fall/early winter storm, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Umm. To paraphrase a line in their discussion: models continue to be inconsistent and full sampling has yet been done. I don't think they've landed on a sure fire solution 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Right now it does look like a November storm. Even the Dec. 8-9th storm wasn't this far NW at this far out. GFS is the outlier right now if you think about it. It's been the EURO that's been the most NW with these types of systems. Need to keep that wave open as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Well, good news is if it cuts as far northwest as the 18z GFS we have a shot at some thunder. I'll take that over 34 degrees and moderate rain showers. It seems a few models just had a hiccup yesterday. There will be very little cold advection behind that weak crap lead wave. My area of Iowa was counting on solid CAA behind that thing so the low couldn't just make a hard left into the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Couple days earlier and we could have had an interesting Iowa caucus...Congrats on the red tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Congrats on the red tag! Congrats on the red tag Woah, didn't know it went through already. Woulda tried to make my first red tag post slightly more meteorological haha Thanks though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 First estimates from OMA and DMX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Haha, you are just now noticing HM8! Congratulations. Can't help but noticed the ensemble members to the right of the GGEM and GFS tracks. 12z There's probably more open waves embedded amongst them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 FWIW the JMA is in the southeast camp too. Wichita to IKK and to Lansing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Umm. To paraphrase a line in their discussion: models continue to be inconsistent and full sampling has yet been done. I don't think they've landed on a sure fire solution 72 hours out. By DVN standards, that's a full blown white flag. They are normally driving the weenie bandwagon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 About that time for Geos to turn that magnet on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 By DVN standards, that's a full blown white flag. They are normally driving the weenie bandwagon Not at all like they used to be a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Not at all like they used to be a few years ago Yeah no doubt. The main forecaster that was the most like that really toned it back. Not sure if something was said to him, or he just became more conservative on his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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