cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 12z HRW NMM looking real good for MSP. Wall of heavy snow moves in later tomorrow morning. Gonna go from nothing to +SN in a hurry there. Further southeast it shows a decent line of convection in IL. I would love to hear a few rumbles tomorrow. 16z 19z 23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'd be quite worried about amounts in and around GRB thanks to a fairly aggressive looking dry slot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 09z SREF plumes with a mean of just under 10" at MSP. Nice tight cluster between 10"-13", with a max of 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 You know what's funny, the RGEM track is the furthest north. By looking at where the low is forming in NM, it will be starting off correct. Edit: Put the EURO on the map. Track is actually over Chicago this run, even though it starts off kind of north in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 09z SREF plumes with a mean of just under 10" at MSP. Nice tight cluster between 10"-13", with a max of 15". Are those at 10:1 or do they calculate a ratio based on the modeled conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Why should I not be surprised that the Low tracks right over my area...does it almost every time with one of those cutters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Cantore is repositioning from Omaha to Sioux City. I'm just expecting an hour or two of snow first thing Tuesday morning, which might add up to 1-3 inches depending on how heavy it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Are those at 10:1 or do they calculate a ratio based on the modeled conditions? I'm pretty sure those are based on the conditions and not a standard 10:1 ratio. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Revising my call, going to call for 2-3 inches of snow for here before it switches to a very cold rain. Not expecting a snowday tomorrow but it'll be an interesting commute to work for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 You know what's funny, the RGEM track is the furthest north. By looking at where the low is forming in NM, it will be starting off correct. Edit: Put the EURO on the map. Track is actually over Chicago this run, even though it starts off kind of north in Kansas. GHD III tracks Monday12z.png Kind of OT, but geos I really like these maps you have been making. Allows me to at a glance compare tracks, without having 15 tabs open and wasting away 30+ minutes. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I was looking forward to NO SNOW in Brookings, SD now the NOAA shows 3 inches here tomorrow.. some computer models must have this going further north.. their blizzard warning says Sioux Falls is getting 6 when it was supposed to be maybe 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 First and last call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 18z GFS coming in north. Has the low going right over Iowa City. Lets see if the later models follow suit. The Twin Cities are likely cashing in big with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Revising my call of 0.2-0.6 yesterday evening to 0.0-0.3". Could get a nice band of storms around noon tomorrow though. Best thunder ops look a little southeast, but I think we may get some even this far north. Well, back to looking at day 10 fantasy storms again for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Man - this party really died once the writing was on the wall for southern/eastern lakes crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Man - this party really died once the writing was on the wall for southern/eastern lakes crew. The models never really changed over the past 10 days. There was an outlying model, here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Up to a foot.. but i think 8 inches is going to fall on me...sharp cut off because Madison looks to get almost nothing. I will enjoy the snowfall and dance/frolick in the mounts of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Latest snowfall estimates, fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Maybe the EURO and UKMET were right about having the low all the way down by Big Bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 GEM/RGEM continue to be furthest SE. Looking forward to seeing final snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro much faster than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 All the tracks are really tightly together now. Within 50 miles. Except in the southern Plains... 18z tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It's been a looooong time since the point has had heavy snow wording with 30mph gusts. Was somewhat disappointed in the afternoon disco from MPX. Seemed a little short and didn't really say much. A little surprised considering this should be the biggest storm in several years. They do mention snowfall rates of 1"\hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Here's the final forecast map. I live 8 miles from superior on the ridge that is the 12-18". Should be some 2-3" rates later tomorrow into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Nice Bo! Latest HRRR run tries to keep the low east/southeast of all guidance I plotted out above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 the beginning of the 0z run of the HRRR jumped the low to Abilene, TX......way north of where it started on the 23z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 the beginning of the 0z run of the HRRR jumped the low to Abilene, TX......way north of where it started on the 23z run. Geos trying to steal your snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yeah it looks like the low will organize over Abilene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Geos trying to steal your snow Lol! I benefited from the Geos magnet when I lived in the Chicago burbs. But he will not be turning his magnet on now. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Lol! I benefited from the Geos magnet when I lived in the Chicago burbs. But he will not be turning his magnet on now. Haha Haha. No, you'll get much more than I will. It's kind a fun watching this system coming together after 10 + days of watching it on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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