Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 For anyone that didn't see the 12z euro control run. For what I can tell with thermal profiles and moisture returns, there should be a little more snow on the front end as the low approaches Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:19 PM, Geos said: For anyone that didn't see the 12z euro control run. For what I can tell with thermal profiles and moisture returns, there should be a little more snow on the front end as the low approaches Chicago. Geez, Euro and GGEM really screwed the pooch on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:19 PM, Geos said: For anyone that didn't see the 12z euro control run. For what I can tell with thermal profiles and moisture returns, there should be a little more snow on the front end as the low approaches Chicago. Worse than the GFS LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 NAM is a little bit slower this time. More like the 6z so far. Low back into NM a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I have a question, is the GGEM the NAVGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:34 PM, Natester said: I have a question, is the GGEM the NAVGEM? It is the Navy model. It replaced the NOGAPS. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navy_Global_Environmental_Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Low is sliding more east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:20 PM, mimillman said: Geez, Euro and GGEM really screwed the pooch on this one. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Of course the models move in whatever direction sucks...lol. Geos, any chance the Euro ensembles look any better for snow farther southeast? Many of the GFS ensembles seemed farther southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:43 PM, Baum said: How so? Too warm perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The difference is that the NAM wants to try to keep the wave more open while the GFS wants to close it off and go negatively tilted quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:43 PM, Baum said: How so? I think he's referring to them both showing the system farther southeast....and then "surrendering" to the farther GFS northwest track. But, it is a bit premature for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:43 PM, blackrock said: Of course the models move in whatever direction sucks...lol. Geos, any chance the Euro ensembles look any better for snow farther southeast? Many of the GFS ensembles seemed farther southeast. Maps for that haven't come out yet. Will post them when I see them. NAM is more east of any other model for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Check out the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:43 PM, Baum said: How so? Yeah, Outside a few runs I thought they've done pretty good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:50 PM, Geos said: Check out the low track. Great scenario for my locale. NE winds may give us a boost for total snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 That's a good sign when the NAM is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:44 PM, Thundersnow12 said: The difference is that the NAM wants to try to keep the wave more open while the GFS wants to close it off and go negatively tilted quicker. El Niño jet stream having its way with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:58 PM, Geos said: El Niño jet stream having its way with it? Maybe who knows. Need the wave to remain open for as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 4km NAM was slightly stronger with the lead wave. 997mb vs. 999/1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 9:01 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Maybe who knows. Need the wave to remain open for as long as possible. Yes, although I would not be surprised if it closes in south central Kansas and starts heading northeast. Waiting for the 18z GFS to come along. Anyways, my best guess as to how much snow I'll get on Tuesday is about 5 to 6 inches. Areas to my northwest will see alot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 12km NAM peaks the temp here at 33° as the dry slot approaches. End of the 4km NAM. Faster than the 12km. Air mass out in front looks just as cold as the 12km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 8:57 PM, blackrock said: That's a good sign when the NAM is on its own. The NAM nailed the Nov 21st event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 It shows all that snow, but then this....?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Am I looking at the wrong NAM run? There's snow in southern and central Michigan for hours, but no accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The NAM also showed the wave tomorrow strengthening big time and giving parts of MN and WI up to 6" of snow as recently as yesterday. Tough to trust at any range, let alone 84 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 9:14 PM, blackrock said: Am I looking at the wrong NAM run? There's snow in southern and central Michigan for hours, but no accums. It could be Virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Couple days earlier and we could have had an interesting Iowa caucus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 On 1/30/2016 at 9:14 PM, blackrock said: Am I looking at the wrong NAM run? There's snow in southern and central Michigan for hours, but no accums. Yeah there's is something fishy about that. It's not dry air causing it or warm temps. Should be showing at least a couple inches for us both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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