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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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WX Bell Euro Maps

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

As a reminder, WxBell ECMWF maps are a no go.  If one or two make there way out in to the public domain please feel free to post the link, but posting the images here is not permitted.  

 

AmWX Model Center Euro maps on the other hand are good to go.  Below is 120hrs from today's 12z operational run.  You can see the extreme cold in SE Canada, some semblance of a HP which has some margin to trend stronger with low pressure systems on each side.  There is now enough separation between the coastal and lp well west of the Lakes to not totally jack up.  Still a ways to go but I have seen worse looks at 120hrs that verified as dendrites around these here parts.

 

post-382-0-69134400-1454457200_thumb.png

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   I don't normally reference the Jan 2003 clipper. However, the 18z GFS has some similarities to that one. I received 9 inches of snow from less than a quarter of an inch of liquid equivalent. It was due to the lee-side enhancement along with super high snow ratios. This up-coming cold shot really means business and if it verifies, I would not be surprised to see some very high ratios. Just something to consider.....

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   I don't normally reference the Jan 2003 clipper. However, the 18z GFS has some similarities to that one. I received 9 inches of snow from less than a quarter of an inch of liquid equivalent. It was due to the lee-side enhancement along with super high snow ratios. This up-coming cold shot really means business and if it verifies, I would not be surprised to see some very high ratios. Just something to consider.....

 

That is actually not a terrible analog. I was thinking the same thing. 

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