franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I think the ukie is is farther offshore than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 C Fl is usually a good track 4-5 days out this time of year. True, haha. Here's the 12z JMA, FWIW (not much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The models are coming together with the suppressed OTS look??? And that's a bad thing??? Come on. How many times have we thought this before and we lose the storm to the NORTH! At this point we would be laughing at the Mid Atlantic crew who would be whining about the storm or saying it was going to come north. Occasionally storms stay suppressed, but we usually only miss out on storms that go through the meat grinder and the energy dies. IF we can actually get a storm to come together fast enough, we could reel one in. If not, maybe we can get some Lake Effect, clipper action with that Artic Air streaming in. It is frustrating to be so close to a good solution though. Maybe we should just torch and take out all possibilities??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Well models keep trending away from cold air mass and more toward a rain event or OTS event. I say another 2 days of modeling and if it is still showing that then it may be time to look further ahead at patterns. It is quite warm in the ILM area today and supposed to be that way most of the week. Looks like the groundhog may of guessed right about spring coming soon. Hopefully it leads to great fishing weather on the coast this year because it has been terrible these past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Well models keep trending away from cold air mass and more toward a rain event or OTS event. I say another 2 days of modeling and if it is still showing that then it may be time to look further ahead at patterns. It is quite warm in the ILM area today and supposed to be that way most of the week. Looks like the groundhog may of guessed right about spring coming soon. Hopefully it leads to great fishing weather on the coast this year because it has been terrible these past few years. No, they've trended colder. This looked like a rainy coastal regardless a couple days ago. Most modeling has progged this OTS, so I'm not sure there's a trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just looking at the 120hr Euro map on the Model Center, that is a very cold airmass bottled up in SE Canada, and does have a favorable look with a 1030hp and lp's on both sides for this to trend colder. Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 And the MA crew thinks that it's a possibility that the storm will climb the coast and not go OTS. It might be wishcasting, but it's too far out to write this off. It does seem like we take one step forward and two steps back though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 No, they've trended colder. This looked like a rainy coastal regardless a couple days ago. Most modeling has progged this OTS, so I'm not sure there's a trend that way. Well that is not how I remembered it. I thought it showed cold air coming down and some moisture all around the southeast and those snow maps keep fading west. We shall hope for snow but I wouldn't get my hopes too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Just looking at the 120hr Euro map on the Model Center, that is a very cold airmass bottled up in SE Canada, and does have a favorable look with a 1030hp and lp's on both sides for this to trend colder. Just saying i agree a little too early to write it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The trends have been good today. Like Lookout said, it's nice to see the Euro look much colder out ahead of the system. I'm thinking if we can get the storm to move through in the 120hr timeframe like the Euro/GFS/JMA show, then we stand a good chance at seeing snow. The Canadian is slower with arrival and I would imagine that would be a rain scenario outside of the mountains... (though slower is bad for the cold air we start with... it could also allow CAD to develop between the northern branch low's to our North.) If I had to put money on it today, I bet that the southern 5h low holds together well and strikes a surface low that tracks along the gulf coast up the east coast in miller A fashion. Just very slight adjustments to the 5h trough on the euro and it would have produced a widespread snow storm. IMO Edit: Does anybody have the EPS low locations? Wondering if some of them are closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The 12z EPS mean looks modestly more supportive of a coastal close enough for snow compared to the 00z run. The mean is a bit NW of the op, though not by enough to matter. We'll see. Well that is not how I remembered it. I thought it showed cold air coming down and some moisture all around the southeast and those snow maps keep fading west. We shall hope for snow but I wouldn't get my hopes too high. This storm comes before the big cool down later in the week. This one was progged to be a rainy coastal or OTS for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 WX Bell Euro Maps Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Generally when we have NW flow or a weak/sheared out southern stream wave, suppression is viable solution. In this case, we have a well defined wave passing to our south - that's a classic setup where we would normally see NW trending between now and Sunday. Now, actually getting copious moisture from the system and cold enough temperatures east of the mtns may be the bigger struggles with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Neat look going into early next week after the coastal storm on Euro. Western ridge with trough digging in the east...a late Feb '89 type look if it were to really dig and close off...potential for some flakes to fly in the air deep into the southeast. UKMet has an amplified trough for the potential follow-up system early next week. From GSP: JUST AS SOON AS THE COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE REGION...A DEEPERNRN STREAM TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CYCLONE DIG INTO THE MISSISSIPPIVALLEY. GFS SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD RESULT AS EARLY AS MON MRNG ASTHE INITIAL COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOUNTER THE MTNS...WITHA SECOND ROUND COMING MON NIGHT-TUE WITH A SECONDARY FRONT. ECDEVELOPS PRECIP ONLY FROM THE LATTER. NONETHELESS THIS SEEMS TO BEWELL ENOUGH HANDLED BY GUIDANCE TO INTRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPMAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND PORTIONS OF NC PIEDMONT...WHICH MAY RESULTIN SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...PARTICULARLY TUE AS COOLERTEMPS ARRIVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 More impressive look with the wave for the coastal this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 wow, excellent run overall....temp issues in places though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 sweet look with the wave here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 18z GFS bringing in a nice coastal. At hr 111 it looks like the 5h captures the 850mb low, brings it in and then it begins to bombs at hr 117 on the NC/SC coast. Thats a Burger Boom! It is the 18z GFS though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It's a warm version of the Carolina Crusher, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It's a warm version of the Carolina Crusher, lolDynamic cooling ftw ha. In all seriousness though I think many on this board would do well if that is the final low placement. That deformation band would make those peeps winter who were under it if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Dynamic cooling ftw ha. In all seriousness though I think many on this board would do well if that is the final low placement. That deformation band would make most peeps winter if it were to happen. It was a near perfect 5h wave pass...so, much to be pleased about there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Let's see if the follow-up trough can dig and close off over the SE.....1-2 punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Dynamic cooling ftw ha. In all seriousness though I think many on this board would do well if that is the final low placement. That deformation band would make those peeps winter who were under it if this setup were to happen.Hard to get excited about a deform band, after the Jan minor event. Temps could trend colder, like the have on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Backside trough is digging pretty well. Flakes/snow showers flying in Birmingham and Atlanta overnight Monday...then up I-85 into Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Backside trough is digging pretty well. Flakes/snow showers flying in Birmingham and Atlanta overnight Monday...then up I-85 into TuesSweet! Is the brutal cold following behind this, or is it not as cold was shown a day or two ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Sweet! Is the brutal cold following behind this, or is it not as cold was shown a day or two ago? There's more energy diving down...light snows breaking out in TN, N MS, and northern half of Bama 180-183. It's a pretty steep trough, so it's a cold look. Would like to see that steep trough dig deep and close off - wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Atlanta and SC upstate in more light snows Wed morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Light snows deep into GA and the Carolinas on Wed....happy hour delivers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 GFS actually has 2 rounds of snow move through with the longwave trough. The second appears like it could be some high ratio powder with 850's around -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Atlanta and SC upstate in more light snows Wed morning Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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