RubiksDestroyer Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'll take "too far south" a week out any day over being in the "jackpot zone" a week out. Definitely. I just hope the 00z Euro trends further SE... If it doesn't, I'm not sure I'm willing to buy into this storm. Which reminds me, for those with WxBell, how does the 12z Euro Para look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Didn't the GFS do this a couple of weeks ago for a storm around 5 to 7 days out? Turned out to be rain. Yes, it was the storm from last week. Originally it looked good for you guys then after a day or two modeling moved the storm northwest by some 500 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yes, it was the storm from last week. Originally it looked good for you guys then after a day or two modeling moved the storm northwest by some 500 miles This storm has a more favorable setup, though, with a much better-placed HP that should help prevent/weaken significant jumps NW. The previous storm had an HP over Newfoundland, with nothing to keep the low from cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Definitely. I just hope the 00z Euro trends further SE... If it doesn't, I'm not sure I'm willing to buy into this storm. Which reminds me, for those with WxBell, how does the 12z Euro Para look? WeatherBELL has the following message on the website: No parallel products from ECMWF on Saturday 2/27 (yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 WeatherBELL has the following message on the website: No parallel products from ECMWF on Saturday 2/27 (yet) Ok, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I guess this is the new best setup we have had all winter, replacing the last threat that turned out to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 18z GFS misses the phase, so there is little/no amplification of the shortwave along the Gulf coast. I have not looked at 12z Euro vort maps but I would guess it phases early given the surface track. 12z GFS was about perfect with the interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GSP leaning heavily on the Euro! would they if it showed a snowstorm, I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 would they if it showed a snowstorm, I doubt it.True, but if you pick the rainy model , you'll be right 98.7% of the time! It's the Packbacker model solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Makes me want to buy the solution even more. Ive seen some big time snows here in March with temps in 50-60 the day before. So have I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 So negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 this will prolly cut just from what im seeing. But if that surface map is correct a RN solution would be likely for the Charlotte area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 this will prolly cut just from what im seeing. But if that surface map is correct a RN solution would be likely for the Charlotte area. Won't cut as modeled on the WPC map! Supressed rainer, most likely scenario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Wish we had more severe weather to track. Sure has been more adrenaline inducing than tracking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Wish we had more severe weather to track. Sure has been more adrenaline inducing than tracking snow. There will be plenty of time for that. Still winter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There will be plenty of time for that. Still winter right now. Everyone want to rush off to spring time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 LC says forget about it!!!!! Larry Cosgrove 50 mins · https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!forum/weatheramerica The "One Last Dose Of Winter" edition features a credible chance for cold and snow in parts of the Midwest and Northeast by late in the new week. What may really grab the attention, however, is the risk of a vast and slow-moving spring storm affecting an area from TX and OK through the Old South with excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms(close to the Interstate 10 corridor San Antonio TX to Tallahassee FL). Spring should be firmly established in the U.S. by March 8-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 LC says forget about it!!!!! Larry Cosgrove 50 mins · https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!forum/weatheramerica The "One Last Dose Of Winter" edition features a credible chance for cold and snow in parts of the Midwest and Northeast by late in the new week. What may really grab the attention, however, is the risk of a vast and slow-moving spring storm affecting an area from TX and OK through the Old South with excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms(close to the Interstate 10 corridor San Antonio TX to Tallahassee FL). Spring should be firmly established in the U.S. by March 8-9 LC's winter forecast was just...it was, well, just...just horrendous. Abysmal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 LC's winter forecast was just...it was, well, just...just horrendous. Abysmal. I know, A lot of Met's was!!! (Some local as well)!! Just passing out some other options from other Met's! Put your cold rain to rest, Spring has sprung in Se wake!!! We'll get'em next year, you you just wait and see..................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Bye, Bye and by and by ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 LC's winter forecast was just...it was, well, just...just horrendous. Abysmal.Looks like LC and DT, made almost the exact same comment on the Twitter or the Facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I know, A lot of Met's was!!! (Some local as well)!! Just passing out some other options from other Met's! Put your cold rain to rest, Spring has sprung in Se wake!!! We'll get'em next year, you you just wait and see..................................... Lol! Now we can welcome in a solid, legit -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GFS pulled the plug on our life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GFS pulled the plug on our life support. Not even a cold rain... how about no rain anywhere around the SE. Decent HP in good position tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Lol! Now we can welcome in a solid, legit -NAO.Maybe the El Niño was so strong this winter, it will take all summer to weaken, and will still be falling apart as we head into next winter, and we still have the weak El Niño effects, to make that blockbuster winter that's been on the way the last 3 winters!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GFS pulled the plug on our life support. "The GFS always loses the storm at this stage. We have this one right where we want it." But, eh, it's there, but just too suppressed at the moment. The way this winter has been this wouldn't surprise me, but it beats a cutter. We may have a 5% chance at this working out, which is something. Miraculous March and all that. Nice HP showing up, at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 "The GFS always loses the storm at this stage. We have this one right where we want it." But, eh, it's there, but just too suppressed at the moment. The way this winter has been this wouldn't surprise me, but it beats a cutter. We may have a 5% chance at this working out, which is something. Miraculous March and all that. Nice HP showing up, at least... Hug the Euro! Atleast we get rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Not even a cold rain... how about no rain anywhere around the SE. Decent HP in good position tho I will take dry weather if not snow but have a feeling rain is coming and alot of it in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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