February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[NCSNOW]

It's 1:00 time for

Doctor _______

I'll let all the GFS watchers fill in the blank.

[burrel2]

I don't really buy that weenie GFS solution at all. I think huge lack of cold air for most. Something to watch tho mountains/foothills/ some Piedmont counties.

 

The cold air is there if we can get a favorable surface low track.

[TiltedStorm]

The cold air is there if we can get a favorable surface low track.

I believe we have a good track and plenty of cold air.

 

This looks like a winner.    

[NWNC2015]

Weather weenie NC Piedmont Weather had 400 shares two days ago before the GFS solution.

 

There is increasing model agreement among all the global models but the GFS that a winter storm is possible mid to late next week. The problem with this is that the GFS has been pretty good this winter and we are waiting for it to come on board before saying this is more even more of a possibility.

[Hvward]

12z euro says GFS is on crack. Keeps with the idea of a cutter solution.

[Jon]

I wouldn't get excited yet, we've all seen this song and dance before. Nowhere near confident with this solution I need at least multiple models on board before I bite. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't interested. GEFS supportive of a threat and honestly this may be the best setup we have but it's only one run. OP obvious outlier. My gut says it stays north of NC/VA line. Maybe I should be negative more often, as soon as I throw hints of canceling winter this starts to happen...

[NWNC2015]

The cold air is there if we can get a favorable surface low track.

 

For some yes. But if we are talking upstate SC into the south-west NC this is not your setup. The cold is not in place and instead reaches the northern CAD zones and then east out to Raleigh during the meat of the storm first. That is if the GFS is right...which I doubt. There's still a better chance of this being a VA/WV storm with the cold in place.

 

I could see this as another setup where the northern CAD areas and then east out to Raleigh could be frozen while it's raining in the upstate of SC and the NC mountains around Asheville. No signs of cold being in place everywhere for this to include Charlotte metro.

[WSNC]

12z euro says GFS is on crack. Keeps with the idea of a cutter solution.

 

Not a cutter.  Low moving NW to SE, just not far enough south.  Tracks on VA/NC line.   

[Hvward]

Not a cutter. Low moving NW to SE, just not far enough south. Tracks on VA/NC line.

Surface low cuts up through TN and then transfers to the coast so it still has the idea to cut, unlike the GFS which makes it into a gulf low that transfers. Still wouldn't work for anyone. High pressure isn't nearly as potent compared to GFS. So yes it is still cutting.

[burrel2]

JMA has a weak low tracking through the northern gulf. Hard to tell how much precip falls but it looks like a major hit by our standards. 

[downeastnc]

GFS had this back on Feb 21st 

 

 

then the 12Z from today

 

 

be nice to even get half of that to end the winter with a bang.....would only be fair for mother nature to do that after screwing us all winter.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Wow. 12Z GFS Ensembles have around 10 members of 20 showing measurable snow here in the foothills along the escapement.

[NWNC2015]

This is a very typical March winter storm for the Piedmont Triad. Some of the tornado hit zones like Oxford, NC will see the cold first vs the western part of the state.

 

Temps averaging 22-24 degrees while its 30,34,36 further south and west. It's still too early to take the thermodynamics verbatim but its obvious if we are going to see the cold to work with we know where its coming from and when. 

 

Brick should be monitoring given the cold air reaches him more quickly in this type of setup.

[NWNC2015]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

VALID 12Z TUE MAR 01 2016 - 12Z SAT MAR 05 2016

...ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK...

 

MARGINALTEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT SNOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AND RAIN TO THE
SOUTH. PLEASE CONSULT THE EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4-7 WPC WINTER WEATHER
OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION.

 

Day 6 probs:

All NC mountain/foothills counties and NC/VA border counties

 

Day 7 probs:

Northern NC mountains, northern foothills, heart of the Piedmont Triad to Randleman, NC

 

(10-30% chance of .25 liquid equiv snow/sleet)

[superjames1992]

The GFS looks nice. The JMA looks nice. The GGEM looks close. The NAVGEM doesn't have a storm. The Euro looks like LOL.

Climatologically, it is a decent period. However, it's hard to have much faith at this point. I just hope it doesn't get pushed back by a day since I have to fly out the morning of March 5th!

EDIT: EPS looks like a dumpster fire. Well, better than the prior run, at least.

[burrel2]

EPS members are tightly clustered on an east/west surface low track through TN/NC. May be time to throw in the towel already.

[WSNC]

12z EPS very similar to op.  Low moves NW to SE from Montana down through Tenn and across NC.  Slight improvement from 0z, but not enough to matter yet.  

[WSNC]

EPS members are tightly clustered on an east/west surface low track through TN/NC. May be time to throw in the towel already.

Really?? Wouldn't take much adjustment for NC to cash in.  Several nice hits on ensembles for VA.  

[mackerel_sky]

12z EPS very similar to op. Low moves NW to SE from Montana down through Tenn and across NC. Slight improvement from 0z, but not enough to matter yet.

Cool! Sounds like a March clipper

[PackGrad05]

RAH straight up mentions the chance of snow based on GFS, but then immediately says euro doesn't show anything, so they will keep it as rain.  lol

[mackerel_sky]

RAH straight up mentions the chance of snow based on GFS, but then immediately says euro doesn't show anything, so they will keep it as rain. lol

GSP leaning heavily on the Euro!

[Jonathan]

looking at the 0z euro, it's not far off from a big hit. All we really need is for the wave dropping down to dig a little farther south and slow down just a tad to give time for the high pressure to shift into a good CAD position. Of course it would be nice if the northern stream storm setting the stage would trend farther south and stronger so it could deliver more cold air.

 

Edit: It is troublesome that very few Euro ensemble members are showing much of anything. But hey, maybe we'll get lucky and things will trend in our favor.

 

 

EPS members are tightly clustered on an east/west surface low track through TN/NC. May be time to throw in the towel already.

 

 

GFS as a #16 seed wins a March Madness matchup upsetting the #1 seed EURO. Take it to the bank!

[NWNC2015]

Need all the cold we can get before Spring approaches us from the west!! Last call aboard the snow train get on now this is it for major winter weather for most!!!

 

[weathertree4u]

I feel for you guys. I know what it is like to be teased by modeling. Seems like the storm last week started out in a similar place only to be shunted 500 miles to the northwest. Hope this one pans out for you guys.

[RubiksDestroyer]

18z GFS is slower/weaker, but it looks to be sticking to its guns so far with the south track... 1012 mb low over southern LA at 132.

[nchighcountrywx]

Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi)

2/26/16, 16:55

Stated many times this winter far from over,California to Carolina jet under Canadian ridge will make for major forecast challenges in March

[Windman18]

GFS too far south for anybody to see snow it looks like at hr. 150.

[Brick Tamland]

Didn't the GFS do this a couple of weeks ago for a storm around 5 to 7 days out? Turned out to be rain.

[nchighcountrywx]

KGSP

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY ...THE MEDIUM RANGE IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE NEXT IN

A SERIES OF POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE

PROGRESSIVE (ALBEIT AMPLIFYING/BECOMING LESS PROGRESSIVE) UPPER AIR

PATTERN. BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE

TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE

IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC IS MUCH

LOWER THAN NORMAL...DUE TO THE USUAL PROBLEMS THAT NUMERICAL

GUIDANCE HAS IN DEPICTING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND

SOUTHERN STREAM THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

THIS IS REFLECTED NICELY IN THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS DETERMINISTIC

GUIDANCE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WHILE BOTH MODELS

DEVELOP A CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THERE ARE STARK DIFFERENCES

BETWEEN THE TWO REGARDING THE TIMING...INTENSITY...AND TRACK OF THE

CYCLONE. THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF A CLASSIC MILLER-A SCENARIO...

SPREADING RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...BUT

THEN SETTING UP A WELL-DEVELOPED AND RATHER SLOW MOVING DEFORMATION

ZONE AS COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING OFF

THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IF ONE PERFECT-PROGS THIS SCENARIO...JUST ABOUT

ALL LOCATIONS WOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS

POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE PIEDMONT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS MUCH

FARTHER NORTH AND CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM...

SUGGESTING A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN THU NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF

CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE MTNS AS ITS MUCH LESS WELL-DEVELOPED

DEFORMATION ZONE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH SUCH

RADICAL DIFFERENCES/UNUSUALLY LOW CONFIDENCE...OPTED TO LEAN THE

FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARD THE LESS IMPACTFUL ECMWF...FEATURING CHANCE

POPS FOR RAIN LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF TRANSITION TO

SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE MTNS FRI MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD SEE MAINLY DRY

CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL AS

A MEAN TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

[mrdaddyman]

GFS too far south for anybody to see snow it looks like at hr. 150.

 

I'll take "too far south" a week out any day over being in the "jackpot zone" a week out. Anyway, I'm not expecting snow here next week.