FallsLake Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 and just on time, the 12z GFS tries to give NC mountains/foothills a clipper on 3/4... Stop it GFS we are done, dang it! Maybe other parts of the SE as well: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160226+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=385 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=168ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=dom_precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160226+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 and just on time, the 12z GFS tries to give NC mountains/foothills a clipper on 3/4... Stop it GFS we are done, dang it! Keeps SUCKING us back in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 EURO isnt far off day 7 for mtns of NC and VA, weak low around MYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 EURO isnt far off day 7 for mtns of NC and VA, weak low around MYR yeah, not a bad look. Maybe we can get some CAD action with a banana high? Would be worth chasing to VA border counties for a last hoorah if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 EURO isnt far off day 7 for mtns of NC and VA, weak low around MYR Several gfs ensemble member hits through day 8. Maybe we'll get lucky when nobody's paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 yeah, not a bad look. Maybe we can get some CAD action with a banana high? Would be worth chasing to VA border counties for a last hoorah if it comes to fruition. Yeah, IMO its not far off from something good for at least Northern NC and the mountains. Oh, and look at that; as soon as we go from +PNA/+NAO to -PNA/-NAO (even better, a neutral PNA), storms start popping up. Funny how that works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Yeah like a few have said I will trade a great Pacific for a great Atlantic for future winters outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Yeah, IMO its not far off from something good for at least Northern NC and the mountains. Oh, and look at that; as soon as we go from +PNA/+NAO to -PNA/-NAO (even better, a neutral PNA), storms start popping up. Funny how that works... hey this is just 7 days away instead of 10, that's a great look for wnc and it's within the 10 days instead of 10 days out, W0W can't believe it. Just Maybe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 hey this is just 7 days away instead of 10, that's a great look for wnc and it's within the 10 days instead of 10 days out, W0W can't believe it. Just Maybe!So we've decided that the +PNA is overrated ? It looks pathetic on that map, but -NAO looks good, for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Winter is still on at least until late March, I'll be surprised if parts of NC don't get a snow in March and I'm talking outside of the mountains! Slushy snow and 30-35 temps on day, and 60's the next day.. That's how we roll in the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 So we've decided that the +PNA is overrated ? It looks pathetic on that map, but -NAO looks good, for now!I don't know about overrated. We're in the southeast, we almost always need a +PNA as long as it's in the right place it's extremely important for the gulf states and East of RDU to cash in. If you have a -PNA you sure as hell better have a strong -NAO. The thing is, no one teleconnection is super favored in the SE. You could make a case for an -NAO/-AO combo being favored but the wall to wall -NAO/-AO winter only put RDU what, 3" above average? We have had dud winters in just about every combination you can think up, it's more so the luck of the draw with each system. You saw how much analogs and a strong Nino helped the case this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 It will probably shift back here in about 15 min but from 00z run last night to the 18z run today, the GFS has made huge changes to the mid week system. We'll see from here but it has been a really big change. Para GFS has a similar shift as well. It is no longer a huge wrapped up system like this weeks bomb, more of a wavy front with a decent low popping Wed am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is interesting for March 4-5th timeframe.. Drops some light snow in NE parts of NC with 6-10" amounts into East/Southern VA. Then brings another system a few days later with light snow across extreme NE NC and SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yeah the overall pattern doesn't even hit at maybe a chance, even if the models can't really nail down much for the time period they say enough, so you're not that far off. It was one thing when we were getting these overrunning solutions with real cold and 3 day snows on the fantasy runs, and the fact that they stayed there made me a bit optimistic. Then the Euro caved to the GFS on the PV drop and I was like "say no more!"...but it was all a facade and now we can go back to being miserable. I got 0.1" on the season...unbelievable. I should have anticipated the moisture overwhelming the cold. Oh well, great great year for learning about Ninos. Hopefully we can get a decent cold blast next weekend so I can make a trip up to Sugar to see some powder, even if it's snow machine generated. Ain't it funny how when the mid and long range looks bad it usually turns out bad, but when the mid and long range looks good, it still turns out bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Several gfs ensemble member hits through day 8. Maybe we'll get lucky when nobody's paying attention. Yeah actually we are way past due a surprise snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Winter is still on at least until late March, I'll be surprised if parts of NC don't get a snow in March and I'm talking outside of the mountains! Slushy snow and 30-35 temps on day, and 60's the next day.. That's how we roll in the SE! I could definitely go for that. Those are some of out prettiest snows, heavy and wet snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I don't know about overrated. We're in the southeast, we almost always need a +PNA as long as it's in the right place it's extremely important for the gulf states and East of RDU to cash in. If you have a -PNA you sure as hell better have a strong -NAO. The thing is, no one teleconnection is super favored in the SE. You could make a case for an -NAO/-AO combo being favored but the wall to wall -NAO/-AO winter only put RDU what, 3" above average? We have had dud winters in just about every combination you can think up, it's more so the luck of the draw with each system. You saw how much analogs and a strong Nino helped the case this year. I am definitely not saying a +PNA hurts but it sure isn't the main driver of snowy winters for RDU. Since 1990 we have been in +PNA and we have sucked since then and it's due to the NAO and our 30 year average dropped from almost 9" to 5.5" during this time. From about 1958 to mid 80's we were in a predominate -NAO pattern with many -PNA winters. In fact from about 58 to 73 we just killed it in a -NAO/-PNA pattern and our 15 year average during that time was almost 10". I don't know where this myth started that +PNA drives Raleigh winters. I know it's been a long time since we have had consistent -NAO so we have had to make due with +PNA pattern but as we see it can snow with +PNA/+NAO it isn't that great, for Raleigh. As for favored patterns for Raleigh, this is a great article on that. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NC_Snowfall.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I am definitely not saying a +PNA hurts but it sure isn't the main driver of snowy winters for RDU. Since 1990 we have been in +PNA and we have sucked since then and it's due to the NAO and our 30 year average dropped from almost 9" to 5.5" during this time. From about 1958 to mid 80's we were in a predominate -NAO pattern with many -PNA winters. In fact from about 58 to 73 we just killed it in a -NAO/-PNA pattern and our 15 year average during that time was almost 10". I don't know where this myth started that +PNA drives Raleigh winters. I know it's been a long time since we have had consistent -NAO so we have had to make due with +PNA pattern but as we see it can snow with +PNA/+NAO it isn't that great, for Raleigh. As for favored patterns for Raleigh, this is a great article on that. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NC_Snowfall.php I see what you're saying...No way am I saying a -NAO hurts Raleigh. There's just countless examples of above average snowfall in Raleigh with wall to wall +AO/+NAO winters, or wall to wall +NAO winters. So when I hear -NAO or bust, I just don't believe that. It helps, but it's not a must...there's too many individual players. Just like the NAO (maybe not as large as an increase of 25%) but the PNA is also correlated with snowfall in NC. In generalities: +PNA = above average cold and snow, -PNA = below average cold and snow. (I know you know this)Nice that they feature the Carolina Crusher. If they had the PNA chart on the website you'll notice it was positive. We need that to shunt the jet stream south which can pop storms like that one with the right interaction. So was it the -NAO only or both? I like to think magic coming from the combination. 2000 1 15 1.813 2000 1 16 1.636 2000 1 17 1.780 2000 1 18 1.664 2000 1 19 1.056 2000 1 20 0.928 2000 1 21 0.865 2000 1 22 0.958 2000 1 23 1.152 2000 1 24 1.191 2000 1 25 1.519 2000 1 26 1.654 2000 1 27 1.480 I guess overall what I'm trying to say is when I don't see a ridge out west I get worried. Reason being is without a ridge or +PNA, cold in the east isn't at all guaranteed. Without cold, no snow. Throw a insane -NAO and we don't need a ridge, so I agree there. But as you said, when's the last time we have had one of those? It's been a long time as you've pointed out, so maybe next year? I just don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z GFS has switched to a costal solution now instead of a cutter for next Thursday night into Friday. Widespread 8"-10" of snow for most of NC and Upstate SC. Looks like the flip is possible and could be in our favor here in the SE. Good trends guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z GFS has switched to a costal solution now instead of a cutter for next Wednesday night into Thursday. Widespread 8"-10" of snow for most of NC and Upstate SC. Looks like the flip is possible and could be in our favor here in the SE. Good trends guys.Yessir. Strong high pressure shunts the low south and gives the western Carolinas a good thump.Please verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yessir. Strong high pressure shunts the low south and gives the western Carolinas a good thump. Please verify.... Haha yeah I will take that run and cash out. CMC has also gone away from the cutter idea but wasn't nearly as robust with the low. I like when the models switch to a snow solution at day 5. There is a much better chance for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z Canadian is similar to GFS, but more strung out/weaker with features so not a hit now. Trended much better and wouldn't take much to look like recent GFS. Euro has been hinting at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z GFS has my interest. I'll need to see the euro shift south to buy in though. It does like there may be enough cold air to work with if we can get a favorable track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z GFS has switched to a costal solution now instead of a cutter for next Thursday night into Friday. Widespread 8"-10" of snow for most of NC and Upstate SC. Looks like the flip is possible and could be in our favor here in the SE. Good trends guys.GFS has been flip flopping like a fish out of water the last couple of days. Going from winter is over to showing a big storm. Only 5 days out, tough, with this threat. Just have to see if it continues showing it and if the other models follow.Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Kind of hard to buy the GFS when it's supposed to be in the mid to upper 60's here Sunday through Tuesday. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Kind of hard to buy the GFS when it's supposed to be in the mid to upper 60's here Sunday through Tuesday. But we'll see. Makes me want to buy the solution even more. Ive seen some big time snows here in March with temps in 50-60 the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 About half of the 12z GEFS members support the op to degree (accumulating snow in same general area), with a few big hits similar to op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 looking at the 0z euro, it's not far off from a big hit. All we really need is for the wave dropping down to dig a little farther south and slow down just a tad to give time for the high pressure to shift into a good CAD position. Of course it would be nice if the northern stream storm setting the stage would trend farther south and stronger so it could deliver more cold air. Edit: It is troublesome that very few Euro ensemble members are showing much of anything. But hey, maybe we'll get lucky and things will trend in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 fwiw gfs hour 156 op and ensemble pretty darn good look, no great lakes low to rob our cold air, now its just going to be sun angle and the half a million other things that could go wrong... individual members, I think we can say high pressure to our NW and low pressure to our SE is likely now its more so a matter of where and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I don't really buy that weenie GFS solution at all. I think huge lack of cold air for most. Something to watch tho mountains/foothills/ some Piedmont counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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